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2016 Market Update and Outlook April 27, 2016 J.P. King Advisors, Inc. is an SEC registered investment advisor. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.
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2015: The Year Nothing Worked
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2015: Bad Year for Upside Returns Five Worst Years Since 1926 Yearly Returns StocksLT BondsCashCommoditiesBEST Year S&P 50030 yr TSY3 mo T-BillCRB Index RETURN 1937-35.02%0.22%0.29%-10.40%0.29% 1931-43.42%-5.32%1.09%-20.59%1.09% 20151.38%-3.72%0.14%-23.05%1.38% 1953-0.96%3.63%1.83%-3.12%3.63% 2001-11.89%3.70%3.85%-16.34%3.85%
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2016: Not a Good Start as of Jan 27
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2016: YTD as of March 25
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Timing is Not a Strategy
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Recovery Happens Quickly
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Volatility is to be Expected
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How Did We Get Here? “The Fed Awakens” Oil China U.S. Economy Valuations
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Fed is Raising Rates
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Fed Seems Determined (for now)
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S&P 500: With and Without QE (09-16)
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Janet Yellen is a Labor Economist
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Things that Make You Go “Hmm”
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Will Fed raising rates be bad for the Dollar?
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U.S. Crude Oil Production vs. Crude Oil Prices January 15, 2010 through January 1, 2016
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U.S. Crude Oil Inventories December 31, 1982 through April 1, 2016
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Fed Balance Sheet vs. U.S. Oil Production
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But Gas is Cheaper!
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China
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Rebalancing the Chinese Economy Means Slower Growth, but Remember the GDP Base
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Transformation to Consumerism China is the World’s Best Consumption Story
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China Affects Commodities
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The Last 6 Mo. China Stock Market Walloped January 12, 2006 through January 11, 2016
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The Economy
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Positives Consumer spending healthy Housing doing well Banks are well capitalized Government spend is a plus Higher savings rates Inflation is Low Interest Rates are Low Dollar stabilizes (or lower?) Negatives Fed tightening Profit margins turning over Earnings declining Manufacturing contracting Energy sector hurting bad Interest Rates are Low
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Consumer Finances are Solid
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Real Estate Rebound Continues
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Unemployment & Wages
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Profit Margins Turning
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Outside of Energy Profit Margins are Rising
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Earnings Declining
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Dollar is a Factor December 31, 2007 through April 12, 2016
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Long Term U.S. Dollar Trends
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Job Creation Since Mid 2014 when Oil Prices Started Falling, the Dollar Started Rising, and Credit Spreads Started Widening
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Valuation
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U.S. Stock Valuation
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Valuations Improving Investment Opportunity
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But Valuations Not Cheap
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Market Cap / GDP
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Overseas Relatively Cheaper
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Emerging Markets on Sale
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Country Valuation Ranks Year End 2015 Average Based on CAPE Book Value Cash Flow Dividends
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Gold
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Central banks buying Gold
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Diversification YTD through March 31, 2016
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J.P. King Advisors 2016 Outlook Reasons for Caution Valuations still elevated Volatility increased Fed raising rates Global growth slowing “January” effect: negative Dow – 88 out of 118 times correct Reasons for Optimism Valuations improving Oil dividend – cheap gas for the consumer Interest rates stable, even with Fed increase looming – Global demand for Treasuries extremely strong Low chance of recession
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Game Plan Do Not Take Any More Risk than Needed – Market valuations elevated Diversify Beyond Large Cap U.S. Stock – Foreign stocks/emerging markets – Gold – Alternatives such as Long/Short Control Expenses – Passive strategies: Index funds/ETF’s – Institutional share class mutual funds
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DOL Fiduciary Rule Difference between Fiduciary and Suitability standards Historically: Broker = Suitability RIA = Fiduciary New DOL Rule = Fiduciary for all retirement accounts Impact = more transparency & disclosure Win for investors! (Brokerage firms = unhappy)
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Disclosures The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. We believe the information obtained from third-party sources to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, timeliness, or completeness. The views, opinions and estimates herein are as of the date of the material and are subject to change without notice at any time in reaction to shifting market conditions. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of investment losses.
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