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2016 Market Update and Outlook April 27, 2016 J.P. King Advisors, Inc. is an SEC registered investment advisor. Past performance is no guarantee of future.

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Presentation on theme: "2016 Market Update and Outlook April 27, 2016 J.P. King Advisors, Inc. is an SEC registered investment advisor. Past performance is no guarantee of future."— Presentation transcript:

1 2016 Market Update and Outlook April 27, 2016 J.P. King Advisors, Inc. is an SEC registered investment advisor. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.

2 2015: The Year Nothing Worked

3 2015: Bad Year for Upside Returns Five Worst Years Since 1926 Yearly Returns StocksLT BondsCashCommoditiesBEST Year S&P 50030 yr TSY3 mo T-BillCRB Index RETURN 1937-35.02%0.22%0.29%-10.40%0.29% 1931-43.42%-5.32%1.09%-20.59%1.09% 20151.38%-3.72%0.14%-23.05%1.38% 1953-0.96%3.63%1.83%-3.12%3.63% 2001-11.89%3.70%3.85%-16.34%3.85%

4 2016: Not a Good Start as of Jan 27

5 2016: YTD as of March 25

6 Timing is Not a Strategy

7 Recovery Happens Quickly

8 Volatility is to be Expected

9

10 How Did We Get Here? “The Fed Awakens” Oil China U.S. Economy Valuations

11 Fed is Raising Rates

12

13 Fed Seems Determined (for now)

14 S&P 500: With and Without QE (09-16)

15 Janet Yellen is a Labor Economist

16 Things that Make You Go “Hmm”

17 Will Fed raising rates be bad for the Dollar?

18

19 U.S. Crude Oil Production vs. Crude Oil Prices January 15, 2010 through January 1, 2016

20 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories December 31, 1982 through April 1, 2016

21 Fed Balance Sheet vs. U.S. Oil Production

22 But Gas is Cheaper!

23 China

24 Rebalancing the Chinese Economy Means Slower Growth, but Remember the GDP Base

25 Transformation to Consumerism China is the World’s Best Consumption Story

26 China Affects Commodities

27 The Last 6 Mo. China Stock Market Walloped January 12, 2006 through January 11, 2016

28 The Economy

29 Positives Consumer spending healthy Housing doing well Banks are well capitalized Government spend is a plus Higher savings rates Inflation is Low Interest Rates are Low Dollar stabilizes (or lower?) Negatives Fed tightening Profit margins turning over Earnings declining Manufacturing contracting Energy sector hurting bad Interest Rates are Low

30 Consumer Finances are Solid

31 Real Estate Rebound Continues

32 Unemployment & Wages

33 Profit Margins Turning

34 Outside of Energy Profit Margins are Rising

35 Earnings Declining

36 Dollar is a Factor December 31, 2007 through April 12, 2016

37 Long Term U.S. Dollar Trends

38 Job Creation Since Mid 2014 when Oil Prices Started Falling, the Dollar Started Rising, and Credit Spreads Started Widening

39 Valuation

40 U.S. Stock Valuation

41

42 Valuations Improving Investment Opportunity

43 But Valuations Not Cheap

44 Market Cap / GDP

45 Overseas Relatively Cheaper

46 Emerging Markets on Sale

47 Country Valuation Ranks Year End 2015 Average Based on CAPE Book Value Cash Flow Dividends

48 Gold

49 Central banks buying Gold

50 Diversification YTD through March 31, 2016

51 J.P. King Advisors 2016 Outlook Reasons for Caution Valuations still elevated Volatility increased Fed raising rates Global growth slowing “January” effect: negative Dow – 88 out of 118 times correct Reasons for Optimism Valuations improving Oil dividend – cheap gas for the consumer Interest rates stable, even with Fed increase looming – Global demand for Treasuries extremely strong Low chance of recession

52 Game Plan Do Not Take Any More Risk than Needed – Market valuations elevated Diversify Beyond Large Cap U.S. Stock – Foreign stocks/emerging markets – Gold – Alternatives such as Long/Short Control Expenses – Passive strategies: Index funds/ETF’s – Institutional share class mutual funds

53 DOL Fiduciary Rule Difference between Fiduciary and Suitability standards Historically: Broker = Suitability RIA = Fiduciary New DOL Rule = Fiduciary for all retirement accounts Impact = more transparency & disclosure Win for investors! (Brokerage firms = unhappy)

54

55 Disclosures The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. We believe the information obtained from third-party sources to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy, timeliness, or completeness. The views, opinions and estimates herein are as of the date of the material and are subject to change without notice at any time in reaction to shifting market conditions. Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of investment losses.


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