1. The Asian rubber industry: perspectives for consumption, production and prices ASEAN +3 Rubber Conference Phuket, Thailand 10-12 April 2013 Dr. Hidde Smit

2. This presentation Five parts: Aggregate rubber consumption Analysis and perspectives for natural rubber production potential Market developments, oil prices and natural and synthetic rubber prices Natural rubber consumption and production Potential scenarios and strategies

3. Part 1. Aggregate rubber consumption

4. World rubber consumption, % annual growth IRSGSmitIRSGSmit 20114.1 (4.3)4.320173.43.5 20120.2 (-0.2)-0.220183.13.3 20135.34.420193.23.4 20145.84.920203.33.5 20155.04.120213.23.4 20163.93.820223.13.3 IRSG :World Rubber Industry Outlook, December 2012, in brackets updates as in Rubber Statistical Bulletin 2013-1 Smit: March 2013

5. Total rubber consumption

8. Growth of total rubber usage

9. Part 2. Analysis and perspectives for NR production potential A general framework for natural rubber supply analysis is presented The trend in production will be called normal production Production exceeds normal production at high prices And vice versa

10. Normal production levels are analysed using the vintage approach The vintage approach derives and includes per country The composition of the total area for natural rubber according to the year of planting (the vintages) The average yield profile for a hectare of rubber during its life Technical progress in quality of clones affecting yield profiles of hectares planted in various years

11. Natural rubber planting, Thailand source data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

12. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), Thailand

13. Natural rubber planting, Indonesia source data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

14. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), Indonesia

15. Natural rubber planting, Malaysia source data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

16. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), Malaysia

17. Natural rubber planting, India source data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

18. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), India

19. Natural rubber planting, Vietnam source data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

20. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), Vietnam

21. Natural rubber planting, China source data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

22. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), China

23. Natural rubber planting, Cambodia source data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

24. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), Cambodia

25. Natural rubber planting, Philippines source data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

26. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), Philippines

27. Natural rubber planting, Myanmar source data: country statistics, Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, with adjustments and own estimates

28. Natural rubber area (‘000 ha) and production (‘000 tonnes), Myanmar

29. Natural rubber production, Laos

30. Global NR normal production to reach 18.5 million t. by 2025; actual production may be higher or lower depending on prices

31. Growth in normal production of NR

32. Part 3. Market developments, oil prices and natural and synthetic rubber prices

33. Future growth in total rubber consumption (IRSG) and normal production of NR

34. Developments in NR and SR prices: NR prices based on supply and demand SR prices largely based on costs with a little influence of the market

35. The price of oil, forecasts based on US-EIA

36. The price of Butadiene, supply constraints may push the price higher

37. SBR prices, increasing to $4.00 in 2025; NR prices declining to $2.20 and recovering to $3.75

38. NR share in consumption, increasing to maximum 47%

39. Part 4. Natural rubber consumption and production

40. Natural rubber consumption

43. World rubber consumption 2025: NR 19.3, SR 22.2, total 41.5

44. Natural rubber production

46. Part 5. Potential scenarios and strategies

47. Buffer stocks The Thailand government bufferstock is estimated at 200,000 tonnes by the end of 2012. This scenario assesses the potential effect of an additional purchase of 200,000 tonnes in 2013; the accumulated 400,000 tonnes to be disposed evenly during 2014 and 2015.

48. NR prices and BS: prices 2012: +0.28, 2013: +0.29, 2014: -0.26, 2015: -0.21, 2016: +0.27

49. Enhanced replanting program for Thailand

50. Average age at uprooting, Thailand base down to 29.5 years, scenario 28 years

51. Replanting, Thailand a total of 80,000 ha more during 2013-2016

52. Normal production, Thailand

53. NR prices

54. Lower normal production for Thailand if planting data from IRSG are used

55. New planting, Thailand source: Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), International Rubber Study Group (IRSG), forecasts by Smit

56. Rubber area, Thailand source: Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), International Rubber Study Group (IRSG), forecasts by Smit

57. Normal production, Thailand estimates and forecasts by Smit, using ANRPC data and IRSG data respectively

58. NR prices

59. Thank you!