1. Global Calculator: business case

2. Agenda 2 Background Case for building a Global Calculator Resources Next steps

3. The 2050 Calculator approach has proved popular, with four national Calculators published and another ten potentially being built 3 Published: Started: Planned: In discussion: UK Belgium China South Korea South Africa Brazil Bangladesh India Indonesia Mexico Algeria Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Philippines Japan Russia France Hungary Taiwan

4. Demo of UK Calculator 4 UK Calculator: http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.ukhttp://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk

5. Agenda 5 Background Case for building a Global Calculator Resources Next steps

6. There is a gap in the market for a simple, user friendly model that shows how the global energy, food and land system “adds up” 6 There are c. 40 global climate and energy models out there. They can be categorised as: Footprint models: show the effect of actions by individuals, such as driving and diet, and not, say, electricity generation and industry. Economic models: not ideal for modelling global energy systems because much of developing country economies are not market based. Engineering based models: small number of these (e.g. LEAP) but not very user friendly. We assessed models on the following criteria: Is it comprehensive? Is it analytically robust? Does it have a high propensity to influence (messenger; understandable; tangible; interactive; user friendly and engaging)? General problem that models are: complex (black box) and not user friendly not good at providing a tangible sense of the change needed on the ground (e.g. quoting results in terms of TWh, not number of cars) partial (e.g. only cover energy, not include land use, food and mineral scarcity).

7. The Global Calculator will be very user friendly and visually engaging... 7

8. ... it will help answer questions on how the global energy and food system “adds up”... 8

9. ... and it will provide a means of comparing pathways from a range of stakeholders 9 Use Global Calculator to compare pathways created by: World Energy Council (Jazz, Symphony) International Energy Agency Businesses Environmental groups Other models (e.g. MARKAL, FAIR, AIM, EFFECT, etc)

10. The Global Calculator will be unable to do policy or spatial analysis Policy analysis e.g. What is the impact of a global carbon tax of $x/tCO2? Spatial analysis e.g. If the US did X and China did Y, how would other countries respond and what would happen to global emissions and climate impacts? 10 x x

11. Feedback on the Global Calculator idea has been very positive 11 We have started having discussions with external experts on our Global Calculator proposal. Feedback so far has been very supportive: Google/ClimateKIC: “great, really like it”. Willing to give us access to Google Earth software and training on how to use it. IEA: “really cool”, “we have long wanted to put our data into a format that makes it easier for users to manipulate it”. Want to put a link to it on their web site when finished. World Bank: “this could have a lot of potential… keen to work with you”. ESMAP are happy to provide us with data, work with us and house the tool on their wiki during development. Julian from Climact: “really want to work on it… I will put in more time than is needed”. The World Resources Institute: this would be a “cool tool” and “it sounds very useful”. Climate Interactive (En-ROADS): “really cool”. Keen to work with us. World Energy Council (global energy body with 3,000 member organisations): really impressed with tool. Said we could use their conferences to promote our work and use their data. Keen to sign a Terms of Reference with us. Global Footprint Network: “interested at an Executive team level”. The UN Environment Programme: “very supportive” of the user friendly concept as the existing models are difficult for non experts to engage with. David Ward (Oxford Smith School): “this is the best global, engineering based, tool I have seen. It is pitched just right.” Alex Bowen (Grantham Institute, LSE): “tremendous initiative… to be congratulated”

12. Agenda 12 Background Case for building a Global Calculator Resources Next steps

13. We will build it in partnership with a range of international experts 13 Team leader (UK Govt) Lead modeller (UK Govt) Science Materials and transport Land/bio/food Electricity and fossil fuels Visuals Heat, lighting and appliances

14. We propose to have the full team in place by July 2013 and produce the first version of the tool by end 2013 14

15. Agenda 15 Background Case for building a Global Calculator Resources Next steps

16. 16 March/April 2013: receive final approval from DECC SoS for project funding. April/May 2013: further discussions with potential partner organisations. July 2013: full team in place with first kick-off meeting in London.