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Student Population Analysis and Projections May 2008.

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Presentation on theme: "Student Population Analysis and Projections May 2008."— Presentation transcript:

1 Student Population Analysis and Projections May 2008

2

3 Contract Statement Of Work: –Review and Analysis of Available School System Documents –Review and Summary of Existing Buildings –Interviews with Local Governments, Authorities and State Agencies –Collect, Review and Analysis of Census Data –Concept Analysis and Conclusions of Base Information Collected –Creation of Development and Growth Program

4 Collection, Review and Analysis of Census Data –US Census Bureau State County City –Tracts »Blocks –Atlanta Regional Commission –Georgia Department of Human Resources

5 Decatur Is A Small City Anomaly In Terms Of Demographics Small dense city Older city Convenient proximity to major city Future land growth is contained Good rapid and mass transit access Older single family desirable housing stock Excellent small school system New apartments and condos are not generating children New single family development comes from redevelopment Few new single family homes on the market at any one time

6 Review and Summary of Existing Buildings –Floor Plans –Site Plans –Building Use Plan –Building Condition Statement

7 Site Plan

8 Lower Level

9 Interview Resources Interviews with Local Governments, Authorities and State Agencies –City of Decatur - City Manager –City of Decatur - Planner –City of Decatur - Management Analyst –Sampling of Private Schools –Methodist Children’s Home –Georgia Department of Human Resources Office of Health Information and Policy –Local Real Estate Broker –City of Decatur - Housing Authority –Atlanta Regional Commission

10 Private Schools

11 Historic Enrollment

12 Principal’s Worksheet

13 Principal’s Classroom Confirmation

14 School Building Capacity By Classroom

15 Population Projection Without Annexation

16 Population Projections and Classroom Fit Without Annexation

17 Proposed Annexation Areas

18 Resident Births in Proposed Annexation Areas

19 Census Tract 229, Block Group 1 – 100%

20 Census Tract 223.01, Block Group 1 – 5%

21 Meeting with City of Decatur / April 4, 2008 Annexation Issues –Agreement Of Projected Student Population –Earliest Annex Date / School Year 2009-2010 –Politically: For 45%/Against 45%/Swing 10% –City Should Not Make Assumptions At This Time Related To Impact On School Taxes –Alternative To Annexation May Include Only Commercial With Residential Neighborhoods Having Options To Petition For Inclusion –City Public Relations Efforts And Action Plan To Begin In Late Summer

22 Population Projection With Annexation

23 Population Projections and Classroom Fit With Annexation

24 Brainstorming Options I & II Option II Move 4/5 to Renfroe open four K-3 schools IB all together More opportunities for students (additional classes, acceleration, specials) Focused support for leadership Facility: better use Facility: cost of construction (would still need to build some classrooms- approx. 10) Lessens transition Option I Move 5th graders to Renfroe open four K-4 schools OA, CL, WP, GL Less transitions for students/ less impact on teachers- keeps fifth grade teachers together. Maturity level for 5th graders fits might work for this model. Transportation less involved. RMS has capacity to accommodate fifth graders without building Low financial impact - move one admin. over to RMS IB in tact: MYP would be fine for 5-8 EL would be 4th grade as well Takes away concept of coming together at 4th grade for social issues Coming together at high stakes testing at 5th

25 Brainstorming Options III & IV Option IV Split 4/5 into two buildings, also add 3 rd graders K-3 schools become K-2 Disrupts IB/EL model Addresses the 4/5 issue but the two existing buildings may not be able to handle the third graders Third graders maturity level This model (K-2) (3-5) has been done elsewhere Grouping positive (developmentally) Option III Open Westchester, two 4/5 academies: lines are McDonough & Clairemont Only impact on 4/5- helps overcrowding at this level only Doesn’t provide more room at k3s Would this return CSD to pre-reconfig diversity divide Transition from GL to WE (some students would be moved in their fifth grade year) Attendance line needs to be drawn New transportation design Relocate central office (ongoing cost)- approx. $250,000 annually to rent office space Additional costs operationally- all admin. And support staff duplicated

26 Brainstorming Options V & VI Option VI Open Westchester as choice school K-5 open enrollment To reduce the 4/5 issue, must have at least 2 fourths and 2 fifths opening the first year of operation Transportation provided by parents due to the choice model Diversity – could be a problem Staffing another building- operational costs Relocate central office-operational costs Low impact on staff disruption- would take applications for wish to move from existing staff or staff with some new applicants Reduces enrollment at all k5 schools Within spirit of charter (choice) Could be either an EL school or an IB school model Option V Four K-5 schools (GL, CL, OA, WP) Eliminate academy concept Eliminates IB/EL Disrupts staff k5 6 th grade become the “mixing pot” May accommodate annexation Need to see if enough room is available Adds operational costs- duplicating staff Must relocate and pay for office space

27 Brainstorming Option VII Option VII Open Westchester: five K-4 schools move 5 th graders to Renfroe Lessens transition IB together Doesn’t strain RMS Potential for annexation 5 th grade issues when placing at RMS Breaks up academy Redraws attendance zone Relocation of central office- Operational costs Transportation/nutrition impact with opening up additional school

28 Option Model

29 Next Steps Prior To Recommendation Contact Georgia State University or University of Georgia to procure GPS mapping services. The process will include entering of all student addresses and demographic data. This will allow CSD to visualize actual numbers of students in attendance zone scenarios prior to making a firm decision. Seek assistance and input from parents (preferably, use the newly formed school leadership teams. Organize a working group to hear the demographic information, understand and develop the pros and cons and go through the various possible scenarios. Include three principals in this process - 1 ( K-3); 1 (4/5), 1 (6-8). Prepare and deliver a presentation to teacher representatives from each school and solicit input prior to recommendation to the School Board. Hold two informational meetings to share enrollment data and two most viable scenarios. Invite parents, community members, city representatives. Hold work session with the Board to review the options and hear the top two choices. Hold regular Board meetings for the Board to make a decision - include two hearings related to the proposed change in school zones (if necessary). Advertise all meetings and decisions to the school community. Timeline: July 2008 - January 2009.


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