1. Enhancing Home Office Statistics on UK Migration Control Chris Kershaw & David Matz Home Office Statistics Royal Statistical Society 6 December 2012

2. Net migration in the UK, 1922-2010 – Source House of Commons Library

3. Edwardian Emigration

4. Passenger arrivals subject to migration control 1906-2011 in millions

5. 5 the system is complicated:

6. 6 Challenges –very different patterns of migration for different nationalities, –the system is complicated: visas, admission at the border, extensions, permanent permissions to stay, grants of British citizenship –People migrate for work, study or family reasons (or as dependants of others who migrate) or for multiple reasons –Prior to the 1990s asylum numbers were low; in the last two decades much greater attention and demands for data and political sensitivity –As asylum numbers have fallen from 2002 peak, more attention on other routes and on enforcement:- detention, enforced removals to voluntary departures –Relating HO data to other sources/data e.g. net migration figures & ONS’ International Passenger Survey

7. 7 What we used to do(August 2010) –Annual and quarterly editions, pdf and excel, 201 pages of text & 127 tables (828 KB) –Plus… –Citizenship bulletin –a further 26 pages of text & 12 tables (95 KB) –many requests for data by individual nationalities, produced bespoke –“Elevator” statistics, little interpretation –Rounded data

8. 8 New quarterly release Improved presentation after consultation, feedback from Migration Statistics User Forum, and UK Statistics Authority assessment : –HTML based release with new front page and better navigation –shorter & more informative topic format, focussing on headline key messages & more use of charts –individual nationality data, unrounded –identifying enforced removals and notified voluntary departures (previously combined). –New data:- (i) work & study sponsorship system, and (ii) visas granted by category by nationality

9. 9

10. More useful: (i) enforced removals (ii) port refusals who depart, and (iii) voluntary departures 10

11. New data by industry sector Skilled (Tier 2) sponsored visa applicants, year ending September 2012 11

12. 12

13. Example 1: study –Overall fall shown by multiple sources for non-EU nationals coming to UK to study 13 (1) Excludes student visitors who are allowed to come to the UK for 6 months (or 11 months if they will be studying an English Language course) and cannot extend their stay. (2) For periods prior to the year ending September 2008, the count of student admissions is not comparable as there was no specific category for student visitors who may then have been recorded as either students or visitors..

14. Which education sectors? –New data on sponsored student visa applications shows the falls in the further education sector and English language schools, whilst the university sector has been broadly flat 14

15. Which nationalities? –fall of 110,000 in sponsored student visa applications from YE June 2011 to YE Sep 2012, across a wide range of nationalities, notably India and Pakistan, whilst there was an increase for China 15

16. Switch to student visitor category? –We’ll be certain with data released in February, but over same period a much smaller increase (+11,511 or +21%), in student visitor category (normally up to 6 months & cannot be extended) than the fall in student visas (-110,419), and different top nationalities Top ten nationalities issued student visitor visas, 2011 (Total 61,381) 16

17. Example 2: work –Overall fall shown by multiple sources for non-EU nationals coming to UK to work, particularly since 2006 17

18. Type of workers? –falls from 2006 to 2009 for skilled workers granted visas and for temporary workers/the youth mobility scheme, and from 2010 for the highly skilled route 18

19. Highly skilled workers, fall from 2010 –due to closure in 23 December 2010 for the ‘General’ sub-category (subsequent numbers relate to applications prior to the deadline or dependants) 19

20. Do the official figures meet the needs? UK Statistics Authority assessment 177 (February 2012) The Statistics Authority judges that the statistics covered by this report are readily accessible, produced according to sound methods and managed impartially and objectively in the public interest, subject to any points for action in this report. -has regular contact with users, has consulted users about changing the format, has published the outcome of this consultation. It has implemented changes aimed at providing users with the information they need and improving access to the statistics. However, the commentary in the release could more fully explain how government policy or immigration control procedures impact upon the statistics. -publishes some information about the quality of the statistics but this lacks clarity about the accuracy, relevance and coherence of the statistics, as well as the strengths and limitations of statistics in relation to their uses. The Home Office could publish fuller information about how the statistics are compiled. - publishes links to other statistics on immigration and some information about the extent to which the statistics are coherent with related statistics or can be compared with other statistics on immigration. However, this information could be made clearer. 20

21. Do the official figures meet the needs? Six dimensions of the ESS Quality Framework are: relevance, accuracy, timeliness and punctuality, accessibility and clarity, comparability, and coherence Relevance, accessibility and clarity: meeting user needs (Code of Practice for Official Statistics Principle 1) -established Migration Statistics User Forum, annual user conference -consulted users on changes -shorter & more informative html format, more use of charts -new data to meet emerging user demands e.g. on sponsored student visa application figures -detailed User Guide -single email address for queries MigrationStatsEnquiries@homeoffice.gsi.gov.ukMigrationStatsEnquiries@homeoffice.gsi.gov.uk 21

22. Do the official figures meet the needs? Six dimensions of the ESS Quality Framework are: relevance, accuracy, timeliness and punctuality, accessibility and clarity, comparability, and coherence Accuracy: Revisions analysis Timeliness and punctuality: headline figures are produced within 2 months of the end of the quarter, greater annual detail in August 22

23. Do the official figures meet the needs? Six dimensions of the ESS Quality Framework are: relevance, accuracy, timeliness and punctuality, accessibility and clarity, comparability, and coherence IPS and HO data for Work, Study and Family routes show similar trends 23

24. Future challenges & plans –Adding more insight and interpretation, presenting HO data in the wider picture of UK and EU(etc) international migration flows and labour markets –Wide range of users, getting more feedback, helping them to analyse data –Develop new data e.g. visas and sponsorship system –Longer term- new data & IT systems – e.g. e-borders –Increasing demands & fewer resources – production of statistics viewed as ‘back office’ – staffing cuts of c. ⅓ during the last year 24

25. Conclusions –Progress made Can see evidence of policy & operational impacts in the HO figures (especially if you look at the detail) Reviews and working with ONS bringing together multiple sources has produced a richer picture Processes validated by confirmation of National Statistics designation by the UK Statistics Authority Public debate now more about policy issues and what the statistics say than whether the statistics are reliable, compared with a decade ago –But as ever, there’s always more to do…. Improve level of feedback from users New data & IT systems 25

26. Contacts & future events Contacts Chris.Kershaw@homeoffice.gsi.gov.uk David.matz@homeoffice.gsi.gov.uk MigrationStatsEnquiries@homeoffice.gsi.gov.uk Migration Statistics JISCMAIL list https://www.jiscmail.ac.uk/cgi- bin/webadmin?A0=MIGRATION-STATS MSUF conference 17 September 2013 - volunteers to help organise welcome 26