1. Land Use Stabilization Wedge: Mitigating Climate Change Through Land Use and Transportation Planning John R. Nolon © 2008

2. Part I: Our Footprints: Carbon, Land, Building, Water

3. Climate Change IPCC Consensus Climate Change is Real and Humans Contribute Largest Contributor to Climate Change = CO 2 Emissions US is Largest CO 2 Emitter in the World (China?) Transportation Sector = 33%+

4. Socolow’s Stabilization Wedges Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency Demand Reduction Demand Reduction Capture or Sequestration Capture or Sequestration Helps Organize Approach Helps Organize Approach Who Can Act Who Can Act Based on Existing Technologies Based on Existing Technologies

5. The Land Use Stabilization Wedge Shift Human Settlements to Reduce Use of Vehicles – Zoning and Planning Shift Human Settlements to Reduce Use of Vehicles – Zoning and Planning Energy Efficient Buildings and Appliances – Zoning and Code Amendments Energy Efficient Buildings and Appliances – Zoning and Code Amendments Wind and Solar Energy – Facilitated by Zoning Wind and Solar Energy – Facilitated by Zoning Protection of Undisturbed Lands – Local Env. Laws = Sequestration Protection of Undisturbed Lands – Local Env. Laws = Sequestration

6. It Could Get Worse! The Next 100 Million 100 Million by 2043 100 Million by 2043 70 million New Homes 70 million New Homes 100 Billion Square Feet of Non- residential development 100 Billion Square Feet of Non- residential development Where this goes on the land is critically important Where this goes on the land is critically important

7. Overall Impact: Development “Opportunities” 66%+ of Development on the Ground by 2050 Will be Built between Now and Then What we have here is a planning challenge, in need of a strategic approach.

8. Current Planning Paradigm The Business as Usual Approach Suburban zoning creates single-family homes on individual lots Suburban zoning creates single-family homes on individual lots Markets and zoning produce 2600 sq. ft. homes Markets and zoning produce 2600 sq. ft. homes Vehicle Trips/day + 7-15 Vehicle Trips/day + 7-15 VMTs Are Increasing @3X Growth in Population VMTs Are Increasing @3X Growth in Population Impervious coverage/lot = c. 9000 sq. ft. Impervious coverage/lot = c. 9000 sq. ft. No local energy efficiency requirements No local energy efficiency requirements Past Decade: 60% of Households Chose to Live in Single-family neighborhoods Past Decade: 60% of Households Chose to Live in Single-family neighborhoods

9. Urban Sprawl Created by Local Planning Zoning Districts Prescribe Low Density Pattern in Suburban and Exurban Areas Zoning Districts Prescribe Low Density Pattern in Suburban and Exurban Areas Developers Apply for Subdivision and Site Plan Approvals Developers Apply for Subdivision and Site Plan Approvals Uncoordinated With Transportation Uncoordinated With Transportation Slowly the Municipally-Created “Plan” for the Region is Built Out = Sprawl Slowly the Municipally-Created “Plan” for the Region is Built Out = Sprawl The Phantom Region is found in the provisions of local zoning codes The Phantom Region is found in the provisions of local zoning codes

10. DoE Forecast: Business as Usual 59% Increase in Driving Between 2005 and 2030 59% Increase in Driving Between 2005 and 2030 Outpaces 23% Projected Increase in Population Outpaces 23% Projected Increase in Population Overwhelms Both Gains in Vehicle Fuel Economy and Lower Carbon Fuel Content Overwhelms Both Gains in Vehicle Fuel Economy and Lower Carbon Fuel Content

11. The New Demography Aging – Empty Nesters (40 million) Aging – Empty Nesters (40 million) Never Nesters/Singles (26 million) Never Nesters/Singles (26 million) Young Immigrant Households Young Immigrant Households 60% of 100 Million will be inclined toward Urban Living – 20 million households 60% of 100 Million will be inclined toward Urban Living – 20 million households

12. Shifting Ground by Planning for Compact Development Compact, mixed-use development features: smaller residential units smaller residential units can be more affordable, can be more affordable, can offer bike and walking paths to can offer bike and walking paths to retail and services and to retail and services and to schools and recreation, and, in some areas schools and recreation, and, in some areas transit stops. transit stops.

13. Two Types of Compact Developments – TED and TOD TED: Compact Development: 7-15 du/ acre. Requires fewer or shorter vehicle trips but most are not served by transit…yet = Less Driving. TED: Compact Development: 7-15 du/ acre. Requires fewer or shorter vehicle trips but most are not served by transit…yet = Less Driving. TOD: Higher Density Urban Development: 15-40 du/acre - connected to a transit stop and integrated with it = Less Driving. TOD: Higher Density Urban Development: 15-40 du/acre - connected to a transit stop and integrated with it = Less Driving.

14. Impact on Climate Change Shifting 60% of New Population to Compact Development will save 85 Million Metric Tons Per Year of CO 2 Emissions by 2030 (based on gradual increase of average density from 7.6 to 13 du/acre) Growing Cooler: ULI et al.

15. Why the Carbon Footprint is Lighter Fewer Cars Fewer Cars Service and Goods Within a Short Walk Service and Goods Within a Short Walk Transit and Parks Within a Short Walk Transit and Parks Within a Short Walk Dwelling Units: Dwelling Units: Are Smaller Are Smaller Share Heating and Cooling Share Heating and Cooling Have Less Exposure to the Elements Have Less Exposure to the Elements

16. Shifting Ground: 60% Half to TED and Half to TOD 100 Million = 40 Million Households 100 Million = 40 Million Households Shift so that 60% chose either TED or TOD Shift so that 60% chose either TED or TOD Shifts 8 Million Households from Single Family Pattern to TED or TOD Shifts 8 Million Households from Single Family Pattern to TED or TOD If half chose TOD, we need places for 4 million households (10 million people) in Transit Oriented Developments at Higher Urban Densities If half chose TOD, we need places for 4 million households (10 million people) in Transit Oriented Developments at Higher Urban Densities

17. CO2 Saved Due to Shift of 4 Million H.holds (10 Million People) National Average CO2 Emissions: 25 metric tons National Average CO2 Emissions: 25 metric tons Estimated TOD CO2 Emissions: 10 metric tons Estimated TOD CO2 Emissions: 10 metric tons Savings Per Person: 15 metric tons Savings Per Person: 15 metric tons 10 Million X 15 mt = 150 Metric Tons Saved 10 Million X 15 mt = 150 Metric Tons Saved

18. Impervious Coverage Pollution – The Water Footprint Single Family 1 Acre: 8713 sq. ft/unit* Single Family 1 Acre: 8713 sq. ft/unit* Hudson Park South: 370 sq. ft/unit Hudson Park South: 370 sq. ft/unit Difference 8343 sq. ft./unit Difference 8343 sq. ft./unit X 4 Million =Less 33 Billion sq.ft X 4 Million =Less 33 Billion sq.ft *EPA Estimate

19. Stormwater Runoff Flooding – The Water Footprint Single Family 1 Acre* 18,700 cubic feet/year/unit Single Family 1 Acre* 18,700 cubic feet/year/unit Hudson Park South: 266 units on 2.26 acres229 cubic feet/year/unit Hudson Park South: 266 units on 2.26 acres229 cubic feet/year/unit 18, 471 cubic feet less 18, 471 cubic feet less X 4 million households = 74 Billion cubic feet less X 4 million households = 74 Billion cubic feet less *EPA Estimate

20. Potable Water Used Shortages in 36 States - The Water Footprint Single Family Homes Use 28 gallons/day/capita* Single Family Homes Use 28 gallons/day/capita* More than Multi-family Because of Outdoor Use More than Multi-family Because of Outdoor Use 28 X 10 Million People x 365 days 28 X 10 Million People x 365 days 100 Billion Gallons/Year Less 100 Billion Gallons/Year Less * U.S. Public Health Service Estimates

21. The Building Footprint Natural Resource Consumption Fossil Fuel Used in Manufacture and Construction Single Family Homes: 2600 sq. ft. Single Family Homes: 2600 sq. ft. TOD Housing: 1500 sq. ft. TOD Housing: 1500 sq. ft. Difference: 1100 sq. ft. Difference: 1100 sq. ft. X 4 Million: 4.4 Billion sq. ft. X 4 Million: 4.4 Billion sq. ft. Less Material and Construction

22. Benefits of Lighter Footprints Reduced Driving Reduced Driving Reduced Size of Homes Reduced Size of Homes More Thermally Efficient Buildings More Thermally Efficient Buildings Reduced Use of Building Materials Reduced Use of Building Materials Less Development on Undisturbed Land Less Development on Undisturbed Land Less Water Use, Pollution, and Flooding Less Water Use, Pollution, and Flooding

23. Part II: Planning the Land Use Stabilization Wedge

24. Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment Municipal Zoning Laws and Local Incentives One of Top 3 Options for Mitigating Climate Change Municipal Zoning Laws and Local Incentives One of Top 3 Options for Mitigating Climate Change Can Provide Low-Emission Transportation Alternatives Can Provide Low-Emission Transportation Alternatives This requires Re-planning Human Settlements: Shifting Ground! This requires Re-planning Human Settlements: Shifting Ground!

25. Zoning Implements TOD and TED Objectives and Standards Evidence of Local Zoning Implementing TOD and TED – carefully coordinated with present and future transit services – is emerging. Experimental Stage: What “Existing Land Use Technologies” are There & How are They Working?

26. Signs of Intelligent Life The Land Use Solution Yonkers, New York Yonkers, New York Bloomington, MN Bloomington, MN South Salt Lake City, Utah South Salt Lake City, Utah Town of Malta, New York Town of Malta, New York Chapel Hill. North Carolina Chapel Hill. North Carolina Austin, Texas Austin, Texas

27. Common Elements Transit Area Defined – Present or Future Transit Area Defined – Present or Future Transit Area Development Standards Transit Area Development Standards Codified into Law Codified into Law Mixed-Use, Compact Developments Mixed-Use, Compact Developments Streamlined Approval Process Streamlined Approval Process Incentives to Developers Incentives to Developers Public Investments Public Investments

28. A TOD Case Study

29. Yonkers Land Use Plan Master Plan for the Waterfront Amended with Hudson Park Project in Mind Amended with Hudson Park Project in Mind Plan Contains Development Details Plan Contains Development Details Plan Contains Performance Objectives Plan Contains Performance Objectives Plan Approved by City Council following Public Participation Plan Approved by City Council following Public Participation

30. Yonkers Zoning Waterfront Area Zoned PDR Waterfront Area Zoned PDR PDR = Planned Development and Redevelopment PDR = Planned Development and Redevelopment PDR Allows As of Right All Development Details Contained in Developer’s Site Plan PDR Allows As of Right All Development Details Contained in Developer’s Site Plan Site Plan Must Conform to Waterfront Plan Site Plan Must Conform to Waterfront Plan

31. Environmental Review Generic Environmental Impact Statement Prepared on Waterfront Plan Generic Environmental Impact Statement Prepared on Waterfront Plan Development Details and Impacts Mitigated Development Details and Impacts Mitigated Citizens Involved in SEQRA Process Citizens Involved in SEQRA Process

32. Site Plan Approval Developer’s Conforming Site Plan Approved by Planning Commission Developer’s Conforming Site Plan Approved by Planning Commission Site Plan Requires No Further Environmental Review Site Plan Requires No Further Environmental Review Site Plan Approved Site Plan Approved Development Review Process Streamlined Development Review Process Streamlined

33. TOD Elements of Plan Create Connection Between the Renovated Train Station and the Waterfront (Metro- North) Create Connection Between the Renovated Train Station and the Waterfront (Metro- North) Promote Mid-Rise, High Density Development Promote Mid-Rise, High Density Development Include Restaurant and Retail On Street Include Restaurant and Retail On Street Include Office Development Include Office Development Improve Public Access and Activity on the River (Scenic Hudson Easement) Improve Public Access and Activity on the River (Scenic Hudson Easement)

34. PDR Zoning - Summary Waterfront Master Plan Approved by Council Waterfront Master Plan Approved by Council Site Plan Approved by Planning Commission Site Plan Approved by Planning Commission Site Plan Conforms to Master Plan Site Plan Conforms to Master Plan Upon approval of the site plan the uses and building details contained in it “are deemed to be the permitted uses and dimensional requirements of the district.” Upon approval of the site plan the uses and building details contained in it “are deemed to be the permitted uses and dimensional requirements of the district.”

35. Intergovernmental Planning Local Zoning and Planning Local Zoning and Planning MTA Support and Cooperation MTA Support and Cooperation Federal Transportation Funding Federal Transportation Funding County Recreation Funds and Plan County Recreation Funds and Plan State Brownfields Regulations, Funding, and Tax Incentives State Brownfields Regulations, Funding, and Tax Incentives State Empire Zone Tax Credits State Empire Zone Tax Credits Private Sector Risk Taking Private Sector Risk Taking

36. TED in Malta, NY Downtown Overlay Zoning Adopted Downtown Overlay Zoning Adopted Mixed-Use Town Center Mixed-Use Town Center ¼ mile Radius – TND Design and Layout ¼ mile Radius – TND Design and Layout Promotes Walkability – 5 Minute Standard Promotes Walkability – 5 Minute Standard New developments “should be located within 1,320 feet of an existing or future transit stop.” New developments “should be located within 1,320 feet of an existing or future transit stop.” Compatible with Capital District Transportation Plan Compatible with Capital District Transportation Plan

37. More To Come Data Calculations Are Preliminary Data Calculations Are Preliminary Ordinances Being Posted: www.landuse.law.pace.edu Ordinances Being Posted: www.landuse.law.pace.edu www.landuse.law.pace.edu Go there for Commentary and Ordinances Go there for Commentary and Ordinances Contact me: jnolon@law.pace.edu Contact me: jnolon@law.pace.edu

38. Planning for a New Direction