1. 1 Decoupling as a Sustainability Strategy Lars Rydén Director Baltic University Programme Uppsala University www.balticuniv.uu.se

2. 2 Increased resource flow and economic growth 1900-2000 PRODUCTION industrial production 40 x energy use 16 x ocean fishing catches 35 x deforestation 20% agriculture expansion 100% ECONOMY global economy 14 x

3. 3 Increased resource flow and economic growth 1900-2000 PRODUCTION industrial production 40 x energy use 16 x ocean fishing catches 35 x ECONOMY global economy 14 x COUPLING Energy 115% coupled Manufacturing 300 % coupled Bioproduction 250 % coupled

4. 4 The problem of coupling or linking Economy is coupled to material flows In industrial economies GDP is coupled to resources flows. However, in the west a significant increase in GDP/resource flow is seen in since 1970s. But this gain is offset by an increased per capita consumption, the so called rebound effect. In addition 98 % of the products in Europe are ending up as waste today. Linear flows dominate.

5. 5 We need to decouple because The capacity to adsorb emissions is limited. We need to decouple emissions. e.g. SO x, NO x, POP, but also CO 2, etc. The resource flow is either non-renewable or over used. We need to decouple resource use. The area, e.g. for forestry and agriculture, is limited. We need to decouple area use.

6. 6 Energy intensity total CO 2 emissions/GDP 1970-2000 From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson, Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on IEA statistics EU-15 Sweden

7. 7 Energy intensity (E/GDP) per sector - Industry - Transport - Service - Residential From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson, Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on IEA statistics EU-15 Sweden

8. 8 Economic sectors in Sweden 1810-1980

9. 9 TOTAL IMPACT = I x M x U x P I (impact/kg)Substitute technologies M (kg/utility)Efficient use, recycling, services use, extended duration, multi-functionality U (utility/capita) Production patterns, consumption patters P (capita)Stabilise population

10. 10 1. Substitute technologies (impact/kg, I) (Transmaterialisation) Manufacturing - Cleaner technologies, e.g. less solvents - Pollution prevention, less emissions Consumption -Energy efficient products, less fuel use -Better environmental profile, e.g. in biocides

11. 11 Biocides

12. 12 With less fossil fuels we will reduce Non-renewable resource use Climate effect, global warming Acidification Eutrophication Air pollution Pollution with heavy metals

13. 13 2. Dematerialisation ( kg/utility, M ) Energy sector -Energy efficient houses -Heat pumps increasing in Sweden -Solar panels slowly increasing Industry sector -Cleaner production, better resource use -Large potential for energy savings Consumption sector (products) -Smaller computers -Recycling

14. 14 Alternative energy forms in the housing sector -Energy efficient houses more common -Biomass in increasing -Heat pumps increasing in Sweden -Solar panels slowly increasing

15. 15 Recycling

16. 16 Environmental management ISO curves see B21 report

17. 17 The carbon content of the energy From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson, Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on IEA statistics

18. 18 DMI / GDP

19. 19 Mobility developments EU-15 1980-2000 From Decoupling, Azar, Holmberg and Karlsson, Chalmers University of Technology, 2002 based on EEA statistics

20. 20 Alternative mobility developments 2 Technical -Alternative fuels introduced -Energy efficient cars have a large potential -Ecological driving Freight sector -Rail transport increasing -Transport addressed in product policies -Safer ship transport in the Baltic Sea?

21. 21 Reduce the ecological rucksack Resource extraction Use recycled material Reduce transport

22. 22 3. Utility (utility/capita, U) (Structural change) Production more efficient or less - Industrial symbiosis - Use of recycled materials Consumption more efficient or less -Less consumption (sufficiency) -Decreased mobility -Slow movement !

23. 23 Alternative mobility forms in urban and personal transport -Decreased mobility – use of ICT -Decreased mobility – more efficient urban planning -Decreased mobility – shop less far away -Improved public transport -Increased biking in cities -Mobility management initiatives

24. 24 4. Population (capita, P )

25. 25 What matters for sustainability is the total flow! Not efficiency in itself. The rebound effect counteracts this

26. 26 Space! From Wackernagel and Reese authors of the ecolo- gical footprint concept

27. 27 How much space do we have? - Surface area analysis - footprints a decrease of a factor of 2 globally is needed - Material flows analysis a decrease of a factor of 2 globally is needed - Energy flows analysis linked to material flows In industrial countries Factor X concept In Baltic Sea Region perhaps a factor of 5

28. 28 Policy tools are needed for decoupling to happen Legal tools Permits Rules for recycling Economic tools Green tax shift CO2 taxation Information toolsLife style info Education

29. 29 How to measure decoupling GDP per resource use MIPS, Material Intensity per Service Unit A disaggregated view – sustainability indicators Life Cycle Assessment, LCA, of a product or service

30. 30 Rules of thumb for decoupling (to be developed by you!) 1. Do not own an equipment if you do not have to. It may be shared, borrowed, leased etc. Car pools are examples. 2. Buy the services instead of organising yourself. Public transport are examples. 3. Maintain the equipment to keep it for a long time. This is old wisdom. 4. Recycle or reuse all worn out equipment. 5. Favour local resource aquisition and recycling. Composting is an example.

31. 31 www.balticuniv.uu.se Go Regional - Baltic Sea Region!