1. Legacy of Europe Legacy of Europe Present Asia-Pacific Present Asia-Pacific Domestic Politics Domestic Politics Week 3 and 4 Regional Trend and The US Factors

2. Robert S. Ross, “The Geography of the Peace: East Asia in the Twenty-First Century,” International Security, Vol. 23, No. 4 (Spring 1999), pp. 81-118. Robert S. Ross, “The Geography of the Peace: East Asia in the Twenty-First Century,” International Security, Vol. 23, No. 4 (Spring 1999), pp. 81-118. http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/2539295.pdf http://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/2539295.pdfhttp://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/2539295.pdf Bruce Gilley, “Not So Dire Straits: How the Finlandization of Taiwan Benefits U.S. Security,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 89, No 1 (January/ February 2010), pp. 44-60. Bruce Gilley, “Not So Dire Straits: How the Finlandization of Taiwan Benefits U.S. Security,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 89, No 1 (January/ February 2010), pp. 44-60. http://www.web.pdx.edu/~gilleyb/Gilley_TaiwanFinlandization.pdf http://www.web.pdx.edu/~gilleyb/Gilley_TaiwanFinlandization.pdf Readings…

3. http://www.mint.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/us-chinatradecomparison-2.jpg Regional Trend… Everyone Knows China is Rising The Coming US-PRC Conflicts? New Cold War? http://mail.tku.edu.tw/cfshih/def5-2-020617c.gif

4. Trend of War and Pace Regional Trend !? What do we mean by “Mega” Material? Institutional? Ideational?

5. What are the Factors !? What do we mean by “Material” Resource/Power Space/Geography Instrument/Technology

6. http://www.infoukes.com/culture/galleries/kokodyniak/figure05.jpg Legacy of Europe http://anonymousradioshow.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/expensive-waste.jpg http://www.airforceworld.com/bomber/gfx/b52/b52_5.jpg

7. http://sanseverything.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/us-soviet-military-spending.jpghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a5/US_defense_spending_by_GDP_percentage_1910_to_2007.png/300px-US_defense_spending_by_GDP_percentage_1910_to_2007.png

8. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/ff/Cold_War_Map_1980.png http://www.oldenburger.us/gary/docs/TheColdWar_files/image004.jpg Because of Space/Geography… Because of Resource/Power…

9. http://spruce.flint.umich.edu/~ellisjs/Map%2028.2%20Cold%20War%20Confrontation.jpg http://techconex.com/images/wwiii/large/western.jpg Because of Space/Geography…

10. http://www.zonu.com/fullsize-en/2009-11-19-11177/Cold-War-Military-alliance-in-Europe.html 1 3 4 2 3 3 2 4 4 2 0 1 1 1 2 4 4 5 Because of Geography…

11. 1940 1941 http://www.moscowtopnews.com/image/article/2/2/0/1220.jpeg Because of Instrument/Technology…

12. http://mackers-world.com/images/nukes/trinity/mike_shot.jpg Because of Instrument/Technology…

13. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/8/8c/B-29_Bomber_on_a_long_range_mission_in_late_1945.jpg Because of Instrument/Technology… http://www.aviation-history.com/boeing/b47-1.jpg http://www.b-58hustler.com/images/B58E.jpg

14. ~1960s Traditional Security http://farm1.static.flickr.com/135/345154333_807ba1c967.jpg http://s2.hubimg.com/u/199825_f520.jpg

15. 1970~ Common Security http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/45940000/jpg/_45940595_carter.jpg Mutually Assured Destruction

16. 1970~ Cooperative Security http://www.presidentialtimeline.org/html/images/objects/0492_lg.jpg

17. 1990~ Non-Traditional Security http://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2006/07/images/20060705_d-0085-2-515h.jpg 1990~ Human Security

18. Present Asia-Pacific From a Resource/Power Perspective…

19. http://chipssilicon.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/military-spending-in-us-history1.png If the U.S. does want a Cold War with PRC, it won’t have a GWOT for a decade……

20. RIMPAC http://i241.photobucket.com/albums/ff46/Misterprice/FormacinRIMPAC2012.jpg http://adroth.ph/afpmodern/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/rimpac.jpg http://www.defense.gov/dodcmsshare/homepagephoto/2012-07/hires_120712-N-RJ303-207d.jpg

21. http://i241.photobucket.com/albums/ff46/Misterprice/FormacinRIMPAC2012.jpg http://thecruciblereport.files.wordpress.com/2012/04/carrier.jpeg http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cd/USS_Independence_LCS-2_at_pierce_(cropped).jpg/300px-USS_Independence_LCS-2_at_pierce_(cropped).jpg http://www.zsr.cc/zsrAttention/UploadFiles_3830/200808/2008082009152576.jpg

22. http://img.defencetalk.com/wp-content/themes/dStyle165/scripts/timthumb.php?src=http://www.defencetalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/panetta-future-dod.jpg&w=365&h=245&zc=1 We welcome PRC to joint our military exercise…( To lead the region/globe jointly ) http://static.ettoday.net/images/379/d379477.jpg Welcome!!!!

23. Because of Space/Geography… Because of Instrument/Technology… Mutually Assured Destruction 1,550 20

24. http://architypes.net/files/image/cache/satellite-map-of-asia-pacific-region.jpg 1 1 1 1 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 2 Because of Space/Geography…

25. Determined By the “Regional” Context…. Determined By the “Regional” Context…. “In the pass, I had no choice, and now, I want to be a good man.” “ Sorry. I am a policeman.” http://posters.7176.com/jz-pic/0338564/mj984R168_1230738511.jpg Bruce Gilley, “Not So Dire Straits: How the Finlandization of Taiwan Benefits U.S. Security,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 89, No 1 (January/February 2010), pp. 44-60.

26. http://km.moc.gov.tw/myphoto/gallery%2F%BE%FA%A5v%A8%C6%A5%F3%2F%A4%A4%AC%FC%C2_%A5%E6%2F/cca220002-hp-197812200134020050l-0001-i.jpg http://www.xhgmw.org/uploads/image/archive/1(340).jpg http://news.xinhuanet.com/ziliao/2002-01/28/xinsrc_7e61cb16269c11d6b5cb00b0d03f0b06.jpg That’s How the Finlandization of Taiwan Benefits U.S. Security…

27. Shanghai Communiqué, 1972, 2, 28. Shanghai Communiqué, 1972, 2, 28. Joint Communiqué on the Establishment of Joint Communiqué on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations, 1979, 1, 1. Diplomatic Relations, 1979, 1, 1. August 17th Communiqué, 1982, 8, 17. August 17th Communiqué, 1982, 8, 17. Taiwan Relations Act, 1979, 4, 10. Taiwan Relations Act, 1979, 4, 10. 3 Communique, 1 Act The “Status Quo”:

28. 1972: The U.S. side declared: The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position. It reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves. 1972: The U.S. side declared: The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States Government does not challenge that position. It reaffirms its interest in a peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question by the Chinese themselves. 1979: The United States of America recognizes the Government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legal Government of China. Within this context, the people of the United States will maintain cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan. 1979: The United States of America recognizes the Government of the People's Republic of China as the sole legal Government of China. Within this context, the people of the United States will maintain cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan. 1982: Having in mind the foregoing statements of both sides, the United States Government states that it does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan, that its arms sales to Taiwan will not exceed, either in qualitative or in quantitative terms, the level of those supplied in recent years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, and that it intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading, over a period of time, to a final resolution. 1982: Having in mind the foregoing statements of both sides, the United States Government states that it does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan, that its arms sales to Taiwan will not exceed, either in qualitative or in quantitative terms, the level of those supplied in recent years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, and that it intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading, over a period of time, to a final resolution. Keywords…

29. TRA: An act to help maintain peace, security, and stability in the Western Pacific and to promote the foreign policy of the United States by authorizing the continuation of commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people on Taiwan, and for other purposes. TRA: An act to help maintain peace, security, and stability in the Western Pacific and to promote the foreign policy of the United States by authorizing the continuation of commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people on Taiwan, and for other purposes. TRA: It is the policy of the United States to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character; and to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan. TRA: It is the policy of the United States to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character; and to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.

30. “ Acknowledges ” & “ Recognizes ” “ Acknowledges ” & “ Recognizes ” “ Joint Communiqué ” & “ Act ” “ Joint Communiqué ” & “ Act ” “ …gradually reduce… ” “ …gradually reduce… ” Issues… Both Mr. Q… Having in mind…

31. US positions: There is but One China; PRC is the Only Legal Government of China; Taiwan is a Part of China … The Reality Is… … but not a Part of PRC. Undetermined Status of Taiwan? Part of ROC……??

32. 1950, 6, 27, Truman's Korean War Statement: “The determination of the future status of Formosa must await the restoration of security in the Pacific, a peace settlement with Japan, or consideration by the United Nations.” 1950, 6, 27, Truman's Korean War Statement: “The determination of the future status of Formosa must await the restoration of security in the Pacific, a peace settlement with Japan, or consideration by the United Nations.” 1951, 9, 8, Treaty of Peace with Japan: “Japan renounces all right, title and claim to Formosa and the Pescadores.” 1951, 9, 8, Treaty of Peace with Japan: “Japan renounces all right, title and claim to Formosa and the Pescadores.” 1943, 12, 1, Cairo Declaration 3 Communique, 1 Act End of ROC... Foundation of Independence… Determined ? http://testfeer.wsj-asia.com/assets/images/Lee%20Teng-Hui.jpg Treaty? Why “Others”? Policy!

33. Taiwan is not important to U.S. Taiwan is not important to U.S. Taiwan is not important to PRC. Taiwan is not important to PRC. Then, Why are there conflicts? http://sleeplessintaipei.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/us-china-flags.jpg For Domestic Needs…

34. http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200707/r159769_583213.jpg I am the most powerful man of the most power state, but I am not almighty……. Interests Group Interests Group Political Struggle Political Struggle Domestic Politics Room of Manipulation Constructive Security

35. Interests Group Interests Group http://images.google.com.tw/images?hl=zh-TW&um=1&newwindow=1&sa=1&q=Military+industrial+complex&aq=f&oq=&start=0 http://www.vawatchdog.org/07/pix07/vietnam.jpg http://www.pophistorydig.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/1983-reagan-sdi-4-apr-60.jpg http://notmytribe.com/tag/terrorism/page/6

36. Political Struggle http://www.loc.gov/exhibits/churchill/interactive/_html/_items/wc0150.jpg http://www.morphizm.com/images/observations/levine/joe_mccarthy.jpg http://images.google.com.tw/images?hl=zh-TW&um=1&newwindow=1&q=Bombing+%22north+vietnam%22&sa=N&start=40&ndsp=20 “I must put the interest of America first. America needs a full-time President and a full-time Congress, particularly at this time with problems we face at home and abroad. To continue to fight through the months ahead for my personal vindication would almost totally absorb the time and attention of both the President and the Congress in a period when our entire focus should be on the great issues of peace abroad and prosperity without inflation at home. Therefore, I shall resign the Presidency effective at noon tomorrow. Vice President Ford will be sworn in as President at that hour in this office.”

37. http://www.poormojo.org/hate/obama-0161.jpg Pro-PRC or Pro-ROC? Who am I? Gift to PRC? Gift to PRC? Give up Taiwan? Give up Taiwan?

38. Strategic Partnership Strategic Partnership Permanent Normal Trade Relations Permanent Normal Trade Relations Carriers Transit Taiwan Strait Carriers Transit Taiwan Strait http://rokendall.com/images/bill_clinton_national_debt.jpg http://www.topnews.in/usa/files/President-George-W-Bush.jpg Strategic Competitor Strategic Competitor 2001 Arms Proposal 2001 Arms Proposal 2004 Referendum 2004 Referendum Policy Change? https://www.michaelbay.com/archives/site/2007b/newsblog/files/USA-flag.jpg

39. “we don't support independence for Taiwan, or two Chinas, or one Taiwan-one China. And we don't believe that Taiwan should be a member of any organization for which statehood is a requirement.” http://www.duke.edu/web/pass//pdf/warpeaceconf/p-kau.pdf http://www.pgm.musin.de/llw/Englisch/G9/8/President/Gw%20bush_LOL.jpg We would do “whatever it took to help Taiwan defend herself.”

40. Only… Minor Adjustments http://www.gambling911.com/files/publisher/Colin-Powell-082608.jpg?0 Policy Statement … Policy Statement … Policy Document … Policy Document … Who do we Meet … Who do we Meet … How are we Treated … How are we Treated … Taiwan is not a Sovereign State! We oppose Taiwan Independence! http://tw.people.com.cn/mediafile/200708/23/F200708231340372726741751.jpghttp://image2.sina.com.cn/dy/c/p/2006-03-22/U1567P1T1D9415681F21DT20060322164740.jpg What are the real BIG ISSUES?

41. http://www.nti.org/db/submarines/netherlands/photos/ntlwal.jpg http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_39-a6RoUCKo/THZjWDvD-0I/AAAAAAAACoM/u34qdX5V8TE/s1600/F-16_desktop_wallpaper.jpg http://www.missiledefenseadvocacy.org/data/images/pac-3/pac3.jpg The Real Big Issue I: Arms Sale… …Domestic Politics

42. Outdated Junks? Outdated Junks? Junks but Expensive? Junks but Expensive? Punishment to MA? Punishment to MA? Fall into Enemy Hands? Fall into Enemy Hands? http://api.ning.com/files/T55MtlmqLf-B48c6Cr4U0Q1EZWXOyzt4aZCmEKkVhdPul5EXo8x4bOn2PPs4BY-TBKipfAlHLhL2MjArXCl8tt9gkHxYA4hG/F16CD.jpg

43. http://www.history.army.mil/brochures/Somalia/Somalia.htm The Real Big Issue II: Security Guarantee… …Domestic Politics

44. Military Elites Civilian Elites Mass Public Highest Number of Military Death Acceptable to… 2844846,861 6,01619,04529,853 17,42517,55420,172 Richard A Lacquement Jr., “The Casualty-Aversion Myth,” Naval War College Review. Vol.57, No. 1 (Winter 2004), pp. 38-57. Supporting Congo Democratic Government Preventing Iraq from Acquiring Nuclear Weapons Preventing PRC’s Takeover of Taiwan http://www.morninpaper.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/us_casket.jpg

45. …Taiwan, as an Island, can still protect itself http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/38/Taiwan_NASA_Terra_MODIS_23791.jpg Although the US Support to Taiwan is Largely Driven by Domestic Politics Only…