1. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Opportunities and challenges for Bioenergy: Global & European perspectives. Seminar: Bioenergi på Kongsgården 29 th August 2011 André Faaij Copernicus Institute – Utrecht University Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40 CLA Bioenergy IPCC - SRREN

2. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Historical Development of Global Primary Energy Supply from RE (1971 – 2007).

3. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Biomass & bioenergy flows according to IEA + other refs (2008)

4. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Key factors biomass potentials Dornburg et al., Energy & Environmental Science 2010

5. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management 2050 Bioenergy Potentials & Deployment Levels 2008 Global Energy Total Chapter 2 Possible Deployment Levels 2011 IPCC Review* Land Use 3 and 5 million km 2 Chapter 10 Modelled Deployment Levels for CO2 Concentration Targets Past Literature Range of Technical Potentials 0-1500 EJ Global Primary Energy Supply, EJ/y 2008 Global Biomass Energy 2050 Global Energy AR4, 2007 2050 Global Biomass AR4, 2007 <440 ppm 440- 600 ppm Technical Potential 2050 Projections Minimum median 75 th Maximum 100 300 150 190 80 265 300 Technical Potential Based on 2008 Model and Literature Assessment 118 20 25 25 th Percentile 2000 Total Biomass Harvest for Food/Fodder/Fiber as Energy Content [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

6. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Potential biomass production on saline soils. [Wicke et al, Energy & Environmental Science, 2011]

7. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Cost ranges various current bioenergy systems. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

8. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Range of LCOE for selected commercially available RE technologies compared to recent non-RE costs.

9. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Experience curves of bioenergy systems in % cost (or price) per doubling of cumulative production [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

10. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Projected production costs estimated for selected developing technologies [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

11. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management GHG/MJ of major modern bioenergy chains vs. conventional fossil fuel options Excluding (i)LUC effects; these can have strong impacts [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

12. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Status iLUC (an opinion) Diverging outcomes; more sophisticated approaches; from 0.8 to later analyses: 0.3 -> 0.2. More detailed regional studies: depends highly (Fully…) on rate of improvement in agricultural and livestock management. CGE: extrapolates past developments, very sensitive to input data, poor in tackling technological change… iLUC is a reactive concept while we actually want to be proactive in avoiding it altogether… Why 2 dozen studies on defining ilUC factors and (almost) none on mitigation of iLUC? [Faaij, 2011]

13. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management [IPCC-SRREN, 2011] Driving forces, dimensions, scales…

14. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Global RE supply by source in Annex I (ANI) and Non-Annex I (NAI) countries in 164 long-term scenarios (2030 and 2050). Thick black line = median, Coloured box = 25th-75th percentile, Whiskers = total range across all reviewed scenarios. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

15. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Global primary energy supply of biomass in 164 long-term scenarios in 2020, 2030 and 2050, grouped by different categories of atmospheric CO2 concentration level in 2100 [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

16. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Opposing sketches for the scenario preconditions, technological challenges, and impacts for bioenergy deployment on long term following Typical IPCC SRES. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

17. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Example: Europe.

18. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Yield projections Europe Observed yield CEEC and WEC Linear extrapolation of historic trends Widening yield gap Applied scenarios Low, baseline and high [Wit & Faaij, 2010]

19. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Results - spatial production potential Arable land available for dedicated bio-energy crops divided by the total land [Wit & Faaij, Biomass & Bioenergy, 2010]

20. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Results - spatial cost distribution Production cost (€ GJ -1 ) for Grassy crops [Wit & Faaij, Biomass & Bioenergy, 2010]

21. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Results – cost-supply curves Production costs vs. supply potential for 2010, 2020 and 2030 Variation areas indicated around the curves represent uncertainties and scenario variables. Only CEEC cost level increases [Wit & Faaij, Biomass & Bioenergy, 2010]

22. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Average annual yield growth rate projections for Europe for the period 2000-30 for four studies De Wit, et al., RSER, 2011

23. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Absolute productivity increases and relative growth rates for the period 1961-2007 and per decade. De Wit, et al., RSER, 2011

24. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Current main Shipping Lanes for biomass and biofuels for energy Wood Pellets Ethanol Palm Oil & Ag Residues [IEA Task 40, 2011]

25. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management European pellet markets N. America (ocean ships) 2 1 4 Bulk large scale power Bulk medium DH&CHP Bulk pellets households Pellets in bags households Major exporters 2 4 1 3 3 NE Europe (coasters) Central Europe (trucks) [Sikkema et al, BioFPR, 2011]

26. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management A future vision on global bioenergy markets (2050…) [GIRACT FFF Scenario project; Faaij, 2008] 250 Mha = 100 EJ = 5% ag land + pasture = 1/3 Brazilie

27. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Key conclusions (I) Technical potential of 500 EJ/year by 2050, with large uncertainty around market and policy conditions that affect this potential. 100-300 EJ/year possible deployment levels by 2050. Major challenge but would contribute up to 1/3 to the world’s primary energy demand in 2050. Bioenergy has significant potential to mitigate greenhouse gases if resources are sustainably developed and efficient technologies are applied. “For the increased and sustainable use of bioenergy, proper design, implementation and monitoring of sustainability frameworks can minimize negative impacts and maximize benefits with regard to social, economic and environmental issues.” [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

28. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Key conclusions (II) The impacts and performance of biomass production and use are region- and site-specific. Key options: –E.g. sugarcane ethanol production, waste to-energy systems, efficient cookstoves, biomass-based CHP are competitive –Lignocellulosic-based fuels, advanced bioelectricity options, and biorefinery concepts can offer competitive deployment of bioenergy in 2020 - 2030. Bio-CCS can offer negative carbon emissions. –Advanced biomaterials promising but less understood. –Potential role aquatic biomass (algae) highly uncertain. Rapidly changing policy contexts, recent market activity, increasing support for advanced biorefineries & lignocellulosic biofuel options, and in particular the development of sustainability criteria and frameworks, push bioenergy systems and their deployment in sustainable directions. [IPCC-SRREN, 2011]

29. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Thanks for your attention For more information, see: www.bioenergytrade.org Detailed activities Background information Results Events Subscribe to the newsletter (2x per year). And Sciencedirect/Scopus