1. Defining “Winning” and “Losing” & Identifying Coalitions for Change Dr. Amanda E. Wooden Asst. Prof of Environmental Politics & Policy Environmental Studies Program, Bucknell University

3. Likely Losers…  Small-Island nations, low-lying coastal areas (sea-level rise) Tuvalu, Reunion, The Netherlands, Florida…  River megadelta areas (sea level rise & river flooding) Asia (Ganges-Brahmaputra, Mekong, Yellow River) and Africa (Nile, Niger)  Water scarce or Water stressed areas lower latitudes, near the equator, primarily developing countries (Mediterranean basin, NE Brazil, Middle East, southern Africa, also Western US)  Vulnerable Ecosystems & Species marine, coral reef, sea ice biome, high mountain, coastal mangroves & salt marshes, tropical rainforests, Mediterranean  Economically Vulnerable Human Populations in all countries Will reduce ability for sustainable development

5. Potential Beneficiaries & Strategic Positioning… Atlantic Monthly article by Gregg Easterbrook, April 2007  Canada, Russia, Greenland, Northern US Elongated growing seasons Land value changes  Access to oil resources in the Arctic Ocean

6. REFRAMED: Losers of Stopping C-C  Dominant & Growing Economies – Uncertain short-term economic costs/losses more real than “highly likely” future impacts from global warming US, China  Fossil-fuel exporting countries

7. Justice, Self-Interest, and Political Costs Will there be any winners? Would you want to be a winner? Surface Temperature Dec. 1992, NASA http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Observatory/Datasets/tsurf.tovs.html

8. Even “Winners” Face Significant Uncertainty… & Long-term Impacts  Flooding & Freshwater supply  Extreme weather events & Natural Disasters  Migration, social disruption & security impacts  Economic (& political) costs will increase…Adaptability matters!

9. Beyond Defining & Justifying Losses to Creating more Winners Visionary Politics & Possible Coalitions Snow cover Feb. 2006 NASA http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Observatory/Datasets/snow.modis.html

10. ‘Now’ is the watchword of the wise Charles H. Spurgeon Nine-tenths of wisdom consists in being wise in time. Theodore Roosevelt