1. Drop out statistics EU 2020 and the Labour Force Survey UOE (UNESCO/OECD/Eurostat) data The student register Danish measures of drop out

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3. Data source: The Labour Force Survey Definition: Percentage of the population aged 18-24 with at most lower secondary education and not in further education or training EUROSTAT- benchmarking early leavers 3

4.  Student or apprentice in regular education during the last 4 weeks (formal education) EDUCSTAT  Level of this education or training EDUCLEVL  Field of this education or training EDUCFILD  Attendance to taught learning activities (non-formal education) in the last 4 weeks COURATT  Number of hours spent on all taught learning activities within the last 4 weeks COURLEN  Purpose of the most recent taught learning activity COURPURP  Field of the most recent taught learning activity COURFILD  Did the most recent taught learning activity take place during paid working hours? COURWORH  Highest level of education or training successfully completed HATLEVEL  Year when highest level of education or training was successfully completed HATYEAR  Field of highest level of education or training successfully completed HATFIELD Educational variables in the LFS 4

5. 5 9,6 % Overview of present EU Member States

6. Early leavers from education and training 200520082009201020112012Target % of population aged 18-24 8.712.511.311.09.69.19.9 (i) Male 10.515.014.314.112.110.8 Female 6.910.08.17.77.07.4 Early drop out in Denmark based on LFS 6

7.  Never based on LFS  Always based on the integrated student register  “Positive” definition – percentage of completed (95 %)  Different approaches with different outcomes  Central part of educational politics in Denmark  Currently focus is on vocational education  Governmental proposal to reform the vocational educational system in Denmark Drop out measures in Denmark 7

8. The Student Register: education from cradle to the grave Contents: Education code Start date End date Institution Established in the early 1970's as a longitudinal register

9. Sources Data collection Search for errors Representativeness Timeliness Dialogue 9 The student register

10.  Looking 25 years into the future  Based on a group of children leaving 9’th grade in Denmark The profile model is the cornerstone 10 Based on the educational patterns known to us when they leave basic school Based on Statistics Denmark's Student register

11. The profile model 11

12. 2015-targets doesn’t have to be fulfilled until 2040? ”You cannot convince young people to take an education when sending a signal that it’s fine if you just do it before you turn 40. It is not ambitious enough”, said Marianne Jelved before becoming minister of culture. ”We want everybody to have 13 years of education and in fact most will have obtained that by the age of 25. You should then measure how many 25 year olds that does actually complete an education at that age”, said Christine Antorini before becoming minister of education. Still more achieves a youth education Minister of education Christine Antorini rejoices with the result. ”It is really encouraging that an increasing part of the young completes a youth education. It is very fruitful when we cooperate to make a positive difference. The Danish context: many opinions! 12 Action has been taken http://uvm.dk/Service/Statistik/Tvaergaaende- statistik/~/media/UVM/Filer/Stat/PDF13/1305 16_Faktiske%20resultater%20og%20sammenli gning.ashx

13. Statistics Denmark published indicators Completion of youth education based on factual total data: http://www.dst.dk/pukora/epub/Nyt/2013/NR261.pdf Institutional background and completion of a youth education : http://www.dst.dk/pukora/epub/Nyt/2013/NR280.pdf Parental background and completion of a youth education: http://www.dst.dk/pukora/epub/Nyt/2013/NR284.pdf Tables on our webpage: www.statistikbanken.dk/afgang03 www.statistikbanken.dk/afgang40 www.statistikbanken.dk/afgang41 www.statistikbanken.dk/afgang42 www.statistikbanken.dk/afgang43 www.statistikbanken.dk/afgang44 www.statistikbanken.dk/afgang45

14. 90 pct. of all 25-year old in the category ‘Not stated’ are immigrants Courses and qualifications obtained outside the ordinary educational system Article and table without immigrants and with qualifications obtained through courses: http://www.dst.dk/pukora/epub/Nyt/2013/NR494.pdf www.statistikbanken.dk/KRHFU3

15. Three ways to measure completion/drop out

16. Different measures and different educations

17. The development in 19 year olds upper secondary educational status

18.  The cross-section cohort method  The “true cohort method” http://www.dst.dk/pukora/epub/Nyt/2011/NR352.pdf UOE definitions 18

19.  New publication on immigrants  Drop out and immigrants  Simple definitions -1) Drop out (termination of the education) -2) Drop out (started on a new education within two years) Another drop out definition 19 Vocational ‘Entrance’ Vocational ‘Specialization’

20. Summary 20 Profile model Surveys Fix points in time From education or educational system? Year group from the population 9’th grade group from institutions Drop out as cohorts

21. 21 Thank you very much for your attention