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Wichita 2008 Review 2009 Forecast Rob Allison, Interim Director Center for Economic Development and Business Research W. Frank Barton School of Business.

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Presentation on theme: "Wichita 2008 Review 2009 Forecast Rob Allison, Interim Director Center for Economic Development and Business Research W. Frank Barton School of Business."— Presentation transcript:

1 Wichita 2008 Review 2009 Forecast Rob Allison, Interim Director Center for Economic Development and Business Research W. Frank Barton School of Business Wichita State University October 7, 2008

2 Slides are available for all of today’s presentations under the 2008 Economic Outlook Conference link.

3 Disconnect?

4 Topics include:  Economic growth  Inflation  Housing & construction  Manufacturing  Financial situation Wichita employment forecast for 2009 by industry sector.

5 Topics include:  Economic growth  Inflation  Housing & construction  Manufacturing  Financial situation Wichita employment forecast for 2009 by industry sector.

6 Percent Change (Real 2000$) Recession Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. Gross Domestic Product

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8 Sufficient liquidity for business activities Appropriately tightening credit standards

9 Year-over-Year Percent Change July 2008 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

10 Import Price Index Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Index Value

11 Data Source: CEDBR, Wichita State University

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13 Wichita Personal Per Capita Income as a Percent of U.S. Wichita, $39,210 United State $38,564 Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

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16 I. Production II. Trade, Transportation, Utilities III. Service IV. Government 2,850 565 2,250 430 6,095

17 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Earnings

18 I. Production Natural Resources, Mining, Construction Manufacturing II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities III. Service IV. Government

19 Months Supply Data Source: National Association of Realtors; South Central Kansas MLS * Ratio of active new home listings to new home sales, seasonally adjusted Inventory of Existing Homes Available for Sale *

20 Data Source: Wichita State University, Center For Real Estate, 2009 Wichita Housing Market Forecast * Year-over-year percentage change as measured using 4 th quarter values

21  INTRUST Arena  WaterWalk  Cessna  Spirit  Sumner County casino  Via Christi hospital in west Wichita  Parkstone

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24 I. Production Natural Resources, Mining, Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities III. Service IV. Government

25 Data Source: General Aviation Manufacturing Association Recession 4,272 Deliveries in 2007

26 Data Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Airline Data and Statistics, Annual Air Carrier Traffic Statistics Revenue Passenger Ton-Miles in Billions Recession

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31 I. Production II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities III. Service IV. Government

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40 I. Production II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities III. Service Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services IV. Government

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54 I. Production II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities III. Service IV. Government

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57  Financial sector instability  Escalating energy prices  Further increases in core inflation  Workforce issues including prolonged work stoppages  And geopolitical shocks.

58  Aircraft manufacturing order backlogs underlie the expectation of continued employment growth  Relative strength in Wichita’s housing market with consistent appreciation in home values  And, sufficient liquidity for regional business activities.

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60 Wichita 2008 Review 2009 Forecast


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