1. Ozone: Violations, NonAttainment & our Air Quality Future Peter Bella Alamo Area Council of Governments Guadalupe County Workshop / Randolph Metrocom Chamber October 9, 2012

2. Key Questions Today 1. What does the ozone violation mean? 2. What actions has San Antonio taken to reduce its contribution to ozone? 3. Why are all counties in San Antonio – New Braunfels Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) included? 4. What can surrounding counties do to reduce their ozone contribution? 5. What kinds of sanctions might ensue? 6. What is the role of what we call "transport”? 7. Will the Eagle Ford possibly increase area ozone?

3. What is ozone? Ozone is an odorless, colorless gas. Ground-level ozone can cause: –shortness of breath –coughing or wheezing –headaches nausea –throat and lung irritation Ground-level ozone’s effects are most profound on children, the elderly, and those with reduced lung capacity.

4. What Causes Ozone? Oxides of Nitrogen ( NOx ) & Volatile Organic Compounds ( VOC ) Note: NOx = NO + NO2 (<= criteria)

5. Emission Trends for VOC and NOx in San Antonio / New Braunfels MSA 1996 to 2018 San Antonio 8-County MSA Population

6. Population Growth in the SA-NB MSA Eagle Ford Shale not evident. Courtesy Bill Barker, OEP/CoSA Texas Water Development Board projects 41% growth in the SA-NB MSA between 2010- 2040 from 2,142,508 to 3,029,300.

7. Key Questions Today 1. What does the ozone violation mean? 2. What actions has San Antonio taken to reduce its contribution to ozone? 3. Why are all counties in San Antonio – New Braunfels Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) included? 4. What can surrounding counties do to reduce their ozone contribution? 5. What kinds of sanctions might ensue? 6. What is the role of what we call "transport”? 7. Will the Eagle Ford possibly increase area ozone?

8. http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/cgi-bin/compliance/monops/select_summary.pl?region13.gif Regulatory O3 Monitors, AACOG / Bexar Co.: Camp Bullis C58, Calaveras Lake C59, SA Northwest C23 AACOG-operated Non-regulatory Ozone monitors: C500 series CPS Energy Owned and Operated Ozone monitors: C622, C678

9. 2008 8-hour average Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard A community will meet the eight-hour standard when the three-year average of the annual fourth highest daily maximum eight-hour ozone concentration measured at each monitoring site is less than 76 parts per billion (ppb). * 2008 Federal 8-Hour Ozone Standard * Source: TCEQ's "Compliance with Eight-Hour Ozone Standard" page: http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/cgi-bin/compliance/monops/8hr_attainment.pl

10. Violation: the three year average of ozone levels on local monitors was too high. On August 21, two monitors violated the 2008 ozone standard. Violation of the 2008 Standard The “Three-Year Average” needs to be less than 76 parts per billion (ppb). Data: http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/cgi-bin/compliance/monops/8hr_attainment.pl Monitoring Site Fourth Highest Average Current Three- Year 20102011 2012Average as of 3:12 pm CDT 10/8/2012 Camp Bullis C58787587 80 Calaveras Lake C59677170 69 San Antonio Northwest C23727981 77

11. Key Questions Today 1. What does the ozone violation mean? 2. What actions has San Antonio taken to reduce its contribution to ozone? 3. Why are all counties in San Antonio – New Braunfels Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) included? 4. What can surrounding counties do to reduce their ozone contribution? 5. What kinds of sanctions might ensue? 6. What is the role of what we call "transport”? 7. Will the Eagle Ford possibly increase area ozone?

12. Requirements vs. Discretion Requirements: The current 2008 ozone standard is now under review: – May be revised in 2013 according to the five-year review cycle. IF the standard revised in 2013, and timeline did not change: – Proposal for a revised standard would be published in 2013 – Final standard promulgated in 2014. – Nonattainment designations promulgated in 2016. Designations would be made based on 2013-2015 data. Next summer: possibly the 1 st year in the 3-year average for designations under a more stringent ozone standard. Now is a great time to initiate dedicated air quality improvements.

13. Requirements vs. Discretion EPA’s Discretion: It is within the EPA Administrator’s discretion under the Clean Air Act to notify the Governor of any state that a designation revision should be revised. – “…on the basis of air quality data, planning and control considerations, or any other air quality-related considerations the Administrator deems appropriate...“ Now is a great time to initiate dedicated air quality improvements, especially in light of the Ozone Advance program.

14. What is AIR Committee Doing? Ozone Advance –EPA program to provide assistance to areas interested in staying in attainment –Voluntary program for voluntary progress –If we are subject to a nonattainment designation, AND we have implemented adequate reduction, EPA administrator MAY allow time.

15. What is AIR Committee Doing? Ozone Advance –Outreach to local business and industry TERP: Cleaner fuels for cleaner fleets Catalogue existing “clean” practices –June 25, 2013: “Path Forward” letter to EPA with list of control strategies to put in place Eagle Ford Shale (EFS) Emissions Inventory for Ozone Precursors –Develop best estimations for activities –AACOG staff under contract with TCEQ

16. Strong Commitment to Success and Recognition

17. June 13, 2007: Hon. Jay Millikin presents recognition award to Tom Spaits of Capitol Cement for SNCR implementation Photo: Forrest Mims III Strong Commitment to Success and Recognition

18. Key Questions Today 1. What does the ozone violation mean? 2. What actions has San Antonio taken to reduce its contribution to ozone? 3. Why are all counties in San Antonio – New Braunfels Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) included? 4. What can surrounding counties do to reduce their ozone contribution? 5. What kinds of sanctions might ensue? 6. What is the role of what we call "transport”? 7. Will the Eagle Ford possibly increase area ozone?

19. EPA Default Boundary: MSA* Metropolitan Statistical Area Atascosa, Bandera, Bexar, Comal, Guadalupe, Kendall, Medina, and Wilson Counties See page 3, “Area Designations for the 2008 Revised Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards”: http://www.epa.gov/groundlevelozone/designations/2008standards/documents/ 2008-12/Area_Designations_for_the_2008_Revised_Ozone_NAAQS.pdf

20. Key Questions Today 1. What does the ozone violation mean? 2. What actions has San Antonio taken to reduce its contribution to ozone? 3. Why are all counties in San Antonio – New Braunfels Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) included? 4. What can surrounding counties do to reduce their ozone contribution? 5. What kinds of sanctions might ensue? 6. What is the role of what we call "transport”? 7. Will the Eagle Ford possibly increase area ozone?

21. Surrounding Counties Alamo Rural Transit – Mass Transit –Connect work-to-home with mass transit TERP: Cleaner fuels for cleaner fleets Energy Efficiency / Renewable Energy –Solar, wind, building code improvements –Building retrofits / AACOG Weatherization –SPEER / Energy Systems Lab + Consortium –Learn from CPS Energy Avoid land clearing and agriculture burns on AQHA days

22. Key Questions Today 1. What does the ozone violation mean? 2. What actions has San Antonio taken to reduce its contribution to ozone? 3. Why are all counties in San Antonio – New Braunfels Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) included? 4. What can surrounding counties do to reduce their ozone contribution? 5. What kinds of sanctions might ensue? 6. What is the role of what we call "transport”? 7. Will the Eagle Ford possibly increase area ozone?

23. Key Programs under NA Nonattainment New Source Review: – Seeks industry and business emission reductions – Allowances are reduced under emissions permits Transportation Conformity – Requires that engineers demonstrate that “added capacity” roadway projects will not add pollution – One year from the date of a non-attainment designation, federally funded highway and transit projects require demonstration: no increase in emissions due to build-out

24. RACT/BACT/LAER BACT, or Best Available Control Technology, is required on major new or modified sources in clean areas (i.e., attainment areas). RACT, or Reasonably Available Control Technology, is required on existing sources in areas that are not meeting national ambient air quality standards (i.e., non- attainment areas). LAER, or Lowest Achievable Emission Rate, is required on major new or modified sources in non-attainment areas. Under EPA's "New Source Review" (NSR) program, if a company is planning to build a new plant or modify an existing plant such that air pollution emissions will increase by a large amount, then the company must obtain an NSR permit. http://www.epa.gov/ttn/catc/rblc/htm/welcome_eg.html

25. Courtesy TCEQ

26. Key Questions Today 1. What does the ozone violation mean? 2. What actions has San Antonio taken to reduce its contribution to ozone? 3. Why are all counties in San Antonio – New Braunfels Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) included? 4. What can surrounding counties do to reduce their ozone contribution? 5. What kinds of sanctions might ensue? 6. What is the role of what we call "transport”? 7. Will the Eagle Ford possibly increase area ozone?

27. Rural Sources Cars Trucks Locomotives Small Engines Vegetation Major Combustion Sources Power Generation Cement Industry Manufacturing Urban Sources Cars Trucks Buses Airports Industries Construction Lawn & Garden Equipment Vegetation Rural Background Ozone Level Relatively low Wind Direction Ozone Increases Downwind from Major Combustion Sources Ozone Increases Further Due to Numerous Urban Sources High Ozone Extends Downward from Urban Areas Courtesy TCEQ

28. Transport Image courtesy of the Capital Area Council of Governments

30. Key Questions Today 1. What does the ozone violation mean? 2. What actions has San Antonio taken to reduce its contribution to ozone? 3. Why are all counties in San Antonio – New Braunfels Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) included? 4. What can surrounding counties do to reduce their ozone contribution? 5. What kinds of sanctions might ensue? 6. What is the role of what we call "transport”? 7. Will the Eagle Ford possibly increase area ozone?

31. Superlative Comments -“Eagle Ford shale will be another Spindletop for Texas.” -“…and could be the most promising oil play in the nation.” -“…perhaps largest economic boom in our state’s history.” – Texas RR Commission -“… one of the nation’s biggest oil and gas fields over next 20 – 30 years.” -“The 400 mile stretch in south Texas is a major job factory.” Eagle Ford Shale Play

32. Horizontal Drilling / Hydraulic Fracturing Figure from energyindustryphotos.com "Ozone Impacts of Natural Gas Development in the Haynesville Shale," Environ. Sci. Technol., November 18, 2010 ENVIRON, et. al. http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es1021137

33. Maximum Regional 8-Hour Ozone Impacts in 2012 Maximum impacts extend outside Northeast Texas into other regions of Texas

34. Wind directions relative to Bexar County on high ozone days > 70 ppb, 2005-2011 48-hour back trajectories within 250 miles of CAMS 58 13% 25% 24% 26% 8% 2% 1% 2% Bexar Medina Bandera Kerr Kendall Comal Guadalupe Gonzales Wilson Atascosa Frio McMullen Live Oak Bee Karnes Goliad Dewitt Caldwell Hays Blanco Bastrop Travis Gillespie La Salle Well location data, Legend: http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/eagleford/images/EagleFordShalePlay120211-large.jpg Wind data analysis: AACOG

35. Eagle Ford Shale Estimates Draft NOx Emissions in tons per day from 24-county Eagle Ford shale play EFS Emissions Source2011 Exploration and Pad Construction0.6 Drilling23.9 Hydraulic Fracturing12.3 Midstream8.8 Total* Estimated Emissions45.6 Type of Industry 200820132018 Electricity Generation 46.542.9 Cement Industry 20.925 Petroleum Industry 5.7 Manufacturing 1.1 1.4 Military Bases 0.9 Other Sources 0.6 Total 75.976.376.6 NOx Emissions in tons per day from Point Sources, 8-County SA-NB MSA * 2011 estimations for Production not included. Production may create up to 25 additional tons of NOx/day in 2011. 2012 emissions will be higher. For example, midstream sources are estimated at 39.3 tons of VOC and 21.0 tons of NOx in 2012.

36. C23 Back Trajectories on Days with 8-Hour Ozone > 75 ppb and the Location of Eagle Ford, 2008-2011 NOAA, Feb. 26, 2010. “Realtime Environmental Applications and Display sYstem (READY)”. Available online: http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html. Accessed 01/12/12. http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready.html

37. Questions / Comments Contact Information: Peter Bella Director Natural Resources, AACOG pbella@aacog.com (210) 362-5249

39. The Alamo Area Council of Governments AACOG provides direct services & planning supporting communities and local governments in a 12 county area of south central Texas  Services to local governments & citizens (CJ, ART, Aging, etc.)  Planning forum for multi- jurisdictional issues (AQ, Eco Dev., Public Safety, etc.) http://www.aacog.com/

40. Anthropogenic NO X Emissions by Source Category, San Antonio / New Braunfels MSA, 1996 to 2018 (tons/day) Type of Industry Tons/dayPercentage Electricity Generation 42.956.2% Cement Industry 25.032.8% Petroleum Industry* 5.77.5% Manufacturing 1.11.4% Military Bases 0.91.2% Other Sources 0.60.8% Total 76.3100.0% NO X Point Source: 2013 NO X Point Source: 2013 * Does not include estimates from Eagle Ford development

41. Background * Texas Water Development Board AACOG region: Full compliance with CAA (‘70s) Significant actions taken in the AACOG region –Early Action Compact + Cement ind. & Power generation –Air Improvement Resources –CoSA’s Mission Verde + CPS Energy’s STEP –Clean Cities (DOE) + Commute Solutions (TxDOT) Now More Than Ever –Eagle Ford shale (EFS) emissions are not now understood –2010 & 2011 Design Values: “On The Cusp” pre-EFS –Growth > +885,000 in MSA from 2010-2040* pre-EFS Doing Nothing ≠ Maintaining Air Quality

42. Smart Ideas for the Future Greater Mobility – Mass Transit –Lone Star Rail –Transit Oriented Development Greater Urban Densification –Decade of Downtown / Walkable Communities Energy Efficiency / Renewable Energy –Solar, wind, building code improvements –Building retrofits Better Emissions Inventories

43. Ozone Trends, San Antonio Region, 1980-2011

45. Types of Strategies: LOCAL Industrial Controls Energy Efficiency Projects Mobile Source Controls – Fleet controls – Idling Reduction Programs – Diesel retrofits – Commute Solutions Outreach – Ozone Awareness Programs Guy Donaldson, Chief, Air Planning Section, EPA Region 6, “State Implementation Plans,” http://blueskyways.org/meetings/webinar/june2.html

46. Air Quality Planning Flow Chart Is Air Clean? Gather Air Quality Data (Ozone Monitoring) And Track A.Q. Plan Progress Model Impact of Controls on Air Quality Develop Emission Control Measures Project Future Emissions Estimate Current Emissions (Build Emissions Inventory) Is Control Strategy Adequat e? Enforce Rules and Program Implement Rules and Program Develop Rules to Implement Controls Attainment & Maintenance NO YES NO Develop Base Case Model