1. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation The Failed Science of Global warming: Time to Re-consider Climate Change Madhav Khandekar Expert Reviewer IPCC 2007 Climate Change

2. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation IPCC vs NIPCC  IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; A UN Body of scientists (mostly working with various national governments) established in 1988: IPCC has issued climate change documents since 1990.  NIPCC: Nongovernmental International Panel on climate change (over 60 scientists & specialists in various fields) established in 2007: First comprehensive report in 2009

3. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation Latest Climate Assessment March 2014  IPCC Assessment  Climate warming due to human-CO2 will accelerate in future  This will have harmful impacts on humanity  Extreme Weather will increase: Sea levels will rise faster  Grain yields could be affected in future  Human health could be affected in a warmer world  NIPPC Assessment  Warming so far is modest & due to natural variability  Modest warming so far has been beneficial to humanity  Extreme Weather Not on the rise: Sea levels have Stabilized  Grain yields have doubled in developing countries  Human health has improved in developing world

4. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation Discrepancy Between IPCC Projections and Climate Reality  IPCC Projections  Climate to warm by 1-1.5C from 1980 to 2012.  Human-CO2 primary driver for warming  Frequent heat waves globally  Winters will be milder and shorter  Snow accumulation to decrease in future  Mid-continental droughts to be exacerbated: Floods may increase in some areas  Climate Reality  Climate warmed between 1980-98 by about 0.5C: No additional warming since then  Natural variability primary driver of climate  Heat waves have not increased in recent years  Winters have become much colder, longer and snowier in last six years  Droughts & floods appear cyclical, driven by natural variability

5. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation IPCC 2007

6. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation U.K Met office data

7. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation

8. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation Mechanics of extreme weather (EW)  Warmer climate holds more moisture: more rains & floods in some areas; droughts/heat waves in other areas.  More intense Trop Cyclones  Increase in extreme rainfall events  Decrease in cool days/night and frost in Mid-latitudes  EW are on the rise now due to warming of climate.  Extreme weather is an integral part of earth’s climate: have occurred throughout recorded history of climate.  ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) phases can and do cause EW events world-wide  Intense interaction between high-lat. cold air with low-lat. warm air produces EW events regionally/locally  Present increase in EW is perception than reality! IPCC View NIPCC View

9. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation Heat Waves: North America & Elsewhere  North American Prairies witnessed recurring heat waves & droughts in 1920s and 1930s! Central Canada witnessed worst heat waves in the 1930s!  Heat Wave over Europe (June 2003) & Moscow (July 2010) were due to natural climate variability  Pre-Monsoon (April-May) heat waves over India are common & exhibit inter-annual variability  Heat waves over Australia linked to ENSO phases  Recent heat waves (ex.,2013) over China, due to drying of soil moisture

10. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation

11. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation Deadliest heat wave in Canada; 1100 people died July 1936

12. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation Highest Recorded Temperatures  World’s highest: 57.8C (136F) Libya 13 Sept 1922  Canada’s highest:45C Saskatchewan Canadian Prairies, 5 July 1937  US highest: 56.7C (134F) California 10 July 1913  Highest on Indian subcontinent: ~128F NW India, 1930s  Highest in China: 43.4C Central China 1 September 2006

13. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation Droughts-floods & ENSO  A warm events (El Nino) in the equatorial Pacific brings summer rains over US/Canadian Prairies  A cold event ( La Nina) is linked with drier summer on the Prairies.  El Nino/La Nina linked to droughts/floods in Indian summer monsoon  ENSO and PDO-Pacific Decadal Oscillation produce dry/wet conditions over eastern Australia, Indonesia, southeast China and eastern Africa.  ENSO is the single largest cause of global extreme precipitation events

14. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation The 1997/98 El Nino structure at about Sep 1997

15. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation Mostly El Ninos Mostly La Ninas PDO COLD MODEPDO WARM MODE Wolter

16. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation  AMO is another example of large-scale atmosphere- large-scale atmosphere- Ocean Oscillation, driven Ocean Oscillation, driven by natural climate by natural climate variability variability  North Atlantic Hurricane activity is linked to Sea activity is linked to Sea Surface Temperatures, Surface Temperatures, besides other parameters besides other parameters

17. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation Major drought years 1868, 1877, 1899, 1918, 1951, 1972, 1987 Major Flood Years 1892, 1917, 1933, 1961, 1970, 1975

18. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation Extreme Precipitation  Precipitation extremes have occurred irregularly in various regions without being forced by ‘Human Activity’  Extreme precipitation often linked to tropical cyclones/hurricanes: Also in monsoonal climate  Highest 24-hr: 18Jan1966; 182cm (south Indian Ocean: TC-Hyacinthe)  Highest one month: July 1861 930cm (Cherrapunji India)  Highest one year: 1860-61 2647cm (Cherrapunji India)  Recent studies on “human link to extreme rainfall” are without any merit! (rainfall amounts only ~50-150mm locally: UK, Europe, North America)

19. SEA LEVEL HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY FOR LAST SEVERAL THOUSAND YEARS AT ABOUT 1.5 TO 2.0 MM PER YEAR THERE HAS BEEN NO ACCELERATED SEA LEVEL RISE AT PRESENT IN ANY OF THE LOW- LYING AREAS OF THE WORLDSEA LEVEL HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY FOR LAST SEVERAL THOUSAND YEARS AT ABOUT 1.5 TO 2.0 MM PER YEAR THERE HAS BEEN NO ACCELERATED SEA LEVEL RISE AT PRESENT IN ANY OF THE LOW- LYING AREAS OF THE WORLD April, May 2016 Rotary Club presentation

20. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation The Pacific four key sites, all notorious for claims of on-going flooding Majuro Kiribati Tuvalu Vanuatu

21. Green Energy Green Energy is expensive and unaffordable Green Energy is expensive and unaffordable Besides, it is NOT producing any measurable impact on earth’s climate! Besides, it is NOT producing any measurable impact on earth’s climate! April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation

22. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation

23. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation Recent Cold Weather Extremes  Winter 2014/15: Coldest February in Toronto & parts of southern ON; low temperature of -35C for several days in February! Elsewhere, heavy snow avalanches in Afghanistan in mid-February killed over 150 people!  Winter 2013/14: Coldest, longest and snowiest over North America in 40 years! Parts of Japan & NE China saw cold winter with lots of snow!  Winter 2012/13: Extremely cold over most of Europe: March 2013 broke several cold weather records! January 2013 was very cold over most of North and central India!  Winter 2011/12: Coldest February 2012 in eastern Europe! Low temperature -40C and below killing several dozen people!  Winter 2009/10: Very cold over eastern & central Europe: several deaths in eastern Europe & Germany: Siberia suffered its coldest winter ever! North India witnessed colder and longer winter, with several hundred deaths!  Winter 2007/08: snowiest winter in Northern Hemisphere since 1966: Heavy snow in China! Buenos Aires (SA) recorded several cm of snow (July 2007) after 85 years!  Winter 2005/06: Very Cold most of Europe!  Winter 2002/03: Severe cold in eastern Europe, 200 deaths in Poland: Long cold spells in North India, Bangladesh & Vietnam; several hundred deaths due to long cold spells!

24. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation Dec, Jan Feb

25. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation

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27. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation

28. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation Summary & Conclusions   The IPCC GW science is increasingly at odds with climate reality!   There has been NO warming of earth’s climate in last 17 years!   Climate Models predict excessive warming!   Cold Weather Extremes (possibly linked to solar variability) are on the rise worldwide!   EW (extreme weather) events _ like heat waves, droughts, floods etc_ show NO increasing trend anywhere!   Hurricane/tropical storm activity worldwide is at record low!   India/Asian Monsoon droughts and floods have occurred irregularly without being forced by human-CO2 induced warming!   The modest present warming of the earth’s climate is beneficial to world humanity! Its time to re-consider climate change!

29. April, May 2016 Rotary Club Presentation