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Would new Consolidated Financial Law lead to Big Bang in Korea? Namuh Rhee>> Managing Director Merrill Lynch (822) 3707 0462 namuh_rhee@ml.com December 9, 2006 Refer to important disclosures on last page. Analyst Certification on rear. Merrill Lynch, as a full-service firm, has or may have business relationships, including investment banking relationships, with the companies in this report. >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of MLPF&S and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst under NYSE/NASD rules.
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2 HK emerging as intra-Asian center for capital raising….. % share of world worldwide IPO proceeds *October 27 YTD (Source: Thomson Financial)
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3 ….While capital market activities in Korea declining Debt financing proceeds (corporate) - Korea Equity financing proceeds – Korea (Source: MOFE)
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4 Is new Consolidated Financial Law addressing key issues? Move in the right direction in creating a level playing field. But the new law appears to have been drafted from regulator’s perspective than securities firm’s. The Law is not radical enough - true “Big Bang” requires a drastic reform. It should focus on inducing competition and help securities houses to understand and develop critical success factors. Without a well-developed capital market, Korea is in danger of becoming backwater and its long-term growth potential would be jeopardized.
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5 Regulation with light touch is essential Hank Paulson said “The US needs to adopt a more flexible UK-style approach to regulating its capital markets if they are to remain globally competitive”. Rules-based approach cannot keep up with the pace of capital markets innovation. To compete with other fast-growing Asian financial markets, Korea needs a principles-based system to deal with new or special situations. Negative system vs. positive system. The country’s top leaders must understand and seek solutions.
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6 Restrictive issues are one of many fundamental problems for local securities firms….. Many houses are extremely risk-averse due to management structure and regulatory guidelines. Many CEO of chaebol-associated brokerage firms consider his position as a springboard to next job within the group and groups chairman’s offices typically discourage risk-taking activities. Authorities prohibit securities firms from leveraging their balance sheets via tight control of “Net operating capital ratio”. Table: Major Korean and US securities firms’ leverage and net operating capital ratios (%) *Note: Assumed $1 = W930, data as of June 2006 for Korean companies, end 3Q for US comps.
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7 Two fastest growing segments of global finance are missing in Korea Hedge funds: Off-shore HFs are active in Seoul cash and derivatives markets but on-shore HFs are non-existent due to underdeveloped regulatory and tax framework. Private equity funds: Few local PE funds have taken off but commercial banks dominate leverage finance business and “permanent establishment” tax issue are complicated for foreign PEs. Given a growing number of “sophisticated investors”, authorities should allow and make it easy to establish alternative investment firms in Korea; if not, HK, Singapore and Japan should take away all related businesses in Asia.
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8 Remove entry barrier for start-up managers Why substantial “paid-in-capital” is required to start an investment fund that competes on idea and innovation? Create a level playing field for all players in non-banking industry; if not, young, bright talents should leave the country. Singapore is a paradise for emerging fund managers: - Registration with the MAS is simple and easy - Auditing is not required for SMEs - Tax incentives for “approved managers”
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9 Why foreign firms are not listing in Korea? Large Chinese companies seek HK listings while their smaller counterparts go to Singapore for IPOs; major banks hire more bankers/analysts in HK and Singapore to handle/analyze these IPOs. Four reasons why there’s no foreign listing in Korea: 1. No valuation premium 2. Small institutional investor base 3. Regulatory hurdles 4. Language problem
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10 Excessive investor protection could hurt market efficiency Enhancing investor protection is important for broadening of financial market. But the level of supervision should not “seek to achieve the impossible task of protecting fools from their own folly” but rather “be no greater than is necessary to protect reasonable people from being made fools of”. Too much restrictions on securities firms and their research operations could disrupt flow of information and lead to market distortion.
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11 Three critical factors for Youido to become global financial marketplace and vital asset to Korean economy Competitive and business-friendly tax and regulatory system. High quality infrastructure. Labor force with the right skills.
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12 Without radical reform, Korea is in danger of becoming backwater Source: Asian Journal
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13 Options for Korean securities firms Domestic mergers should not create synergy given identical business model; there’s no specialized boutique house; only cost savings could be achieved. Virtually impossible for uncompetitive small firms to exit given high tax charges for major shareholders Overseas M&As could be one of viable options to grow and acquire skills: - Japan’s SPARX and Nomura Securities. - Stock valuations are relatively high giving domestic firms currencies to make acquisition. - Table: Korean securities firms’ valuation *Note: Assumed $1 = W930, data as of June 2006 for Korean companies, end 3Q for US comps.
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14 Copyright 2005 Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated (MLPF&S). All rights reserved. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. This report has been prepared and issued by MLPF&S and/or one of its affiliates and has been approved for publication in the United Kingdom by Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Limited, which is regulated by the FSA; has been considered and distributed in Australia by Merrill Lynch Equities (Australia) Limited (ACN 006 276 795), a licensed securities dealer under the Australian Corporations Law; is distributed in Hong Kong by Merrill Lynch (Asia Pacific) Ltd, which is regulated by the Hong Kong SFC; and is distributed in Singapore by Merrill Lynch International Bank Ltd (Merchant Bank) and Merrill Lynch (Singapore) Pte Ltd, which are regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. The information herein was obtained from various sources; we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Additional information available. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities ("related investments"). MLPF&S, its affiliates, directors, officers, employees and employee benefit programs may have a long or short position in any securities of this issuer(s) or in related investments. MLPF&S or its affiliates may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any entity mentioned in this report. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security's price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, whose values are influenced by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk. This presentation has been prepared for a general audience and is given for general information only. Merrill Lynch makes no representation and assumes no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or completeness of, or any errors or omissions in, any information contained herein. In providing this presentation Merrill Lynch is not giving investment advice. This presentation is not intended to be and does not constitute an invitation by Merrill Lynch for applications to engage in any investment activity or product mentioned and is provided as information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person attending this presentation. Participants should seek advice regarding the appropriateness of engaging in any securities or investment strategies and products discussed in this presentation and should understand that statements regarding future prospects of products may not be realised. Accordingly persons interested in obtaining further information should take into account their financial circumstances, investment objectives and particular needs. Any decisions in relation to investment strategies and products should rely on that investigation and not on the contents of this presentation. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance Korea imposes a capital gains tax on non-resident investors in Korean securities of the lesser of 27.5% of the gain or 11% of the sales proceeds unless the investor is either (1) resident in a country which has a double tax treaty with Korea that exempts the investor's capital gains from Korean tax or (2) the shares sold are sold through the Korea Stock exchange or KOSDAQ exchange and the seller (including related parties) has not owned 25% or more of the shares of the company at any time during the year of sale plus the 5 calendar years preceding the year of sale. Investors should seek their own tax advice. Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report.
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