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John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Prosperity...
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After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs … Now At A Record Level of Jobs U.S. Jobs Long Slow Growth - Not Over-Heating
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Petroleum Prices Back to 2003 Levels Helps Families In Modest Income Areas
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Value of the Dollar: Helps Imports & Hurts Exports 2012-2015 28.0% 100.0
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Consumer Confidence, 2009-2016 Needed To Help Homes Sales
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S & P 500 Stock Index Back to 2,000
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Interest Rates Very Low Again Encourages Home Sales
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California Wage & Salary Employment: A Record Level
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California Job Gains/Losses 2007 15,844,325 Great Recession -1,178,158 2015 16,474,808 Up 630,483 4.0% Up Recovery 1,809,542
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Inland Empire Economy Gaining Strength!
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Job Quality
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Inland Empire Growth was the 2 nd Largest Absolute Job Gain in California in 2015!
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Unemployment Falling
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The Issue: Poverty
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Diversity Challenge
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Gold Mine Theory Primary Tier Secondary Tier
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Educational Challenge For Adults & Their Children
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Health Care
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Health Care Jobs: Continuous Growth 2011-2015 12% of Job Growth Median Pay $54,261
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Inland Empire Underserved by Health Care Workers 26.6% More People Per Health Care Worker in 2015
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Sophisticated Warehousing Operations
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Port Container Volumes Strong Even With January Labor Slowdown
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Fulfillment Warehousing
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E-Commerce Growth Rates Year Over Year by Quarter
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Net Industrial Space Absorption 23.1 million 20.7 Million Sq. Ft. of Industrial Under Construction December-2015
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Industrial Overwhelmingly In The Inland Empire
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Industrial Vacancy Rate 3.6% 3.9%
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Asking Lease Rates On Industrial Facilities Are Rising
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Logistics Powerful Job Growth Median Pay $45,677 2011-2015: 23% of New Jobs
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Permit Valuation Increasing But Slowly
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PM 2.5: Diesel Pollution -95.6%
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Manufacturing: Should Be A Major Growth Source
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California Manufacturing Job Growth Just 5.4% of U.S. Growth
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CA Is Not Loved By Executives & Entrepreneurs
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Inland Empire Manufacturing Jobs 2011-2015 5% of Job Growth Median Pay $49,567
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Construction: Finally Coming Back
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Notices of Default At Very Low Levels Only 1,000 NODs in January 2016
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Underwater Homeowners Negative Equity Has Dropped 4 th Qtr 2009 – 3rd Qtr 2015 54.9% to 11.4%
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Home Price Trends 83.4% -26.9%
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Long Term Competitive Price Advantage Still Exists $190,000 $202,000 $379,000
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Affordability to Median Income Household 3 rd Quarter 2015 I. Empire: 45%-55% LA: 27%-73% Orange: 21%-79% SD: 25%-75%
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Home Sales Volume No Breakout
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Domestic In-Migration: Stalled -10,241 8 Years -1,280 per year
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Construction Jobs: Growth Gaining Median Pay $51,051 2011-2015 13% of Job Growth
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Assessed Valuation 2008-2015 Up $3.2 Billion 0.8% Inflation Up 8.6% SB Co. Up +2.8% Riv Co. Down -0.8%
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High Paying Sectors Jack Dangermond Ahmad Adel Al-Khatib
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Higher End Homes Draw Well Educated Workers $599,310 $449,386 $497,455 UPLAND EASTVALE $465,532 $504,397 $450,500 CORONA $441,965 TEMECULA $376,303$405,538 $594,476 Claremont $353,820$355,000 Loma Linda
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Migration of AA or Higher Redlands-Loma Linda Western Inland Empire Temecula-Murrieta
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Professionals, Mgmt., Utilities, Mining Slowly Coming Back Median Pay $65,453 2011-2015 3.6% of Growth
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Office Space Net Absorption 492,858
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Office Vacancy Rate 15.0%
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Gold Mine Theory Primary Tier Secondary Tier
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Retail Sales 2006-2015 Up $7.7 Billion, 12.6% Inflation Up 16.1% SB Co. Up +14.4% Riv Co. Up +10.7%
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Low Paying Job Growth Retail, Consumer & Bus. Services, Hotel, Eat & Drink Amusement, Agriculture, Employment Agency 2011-2015 44% of Job Growth Median Pay $28,927
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Federal, State, Local Government Median Pay $57,984 2011-2015 -5% of Job Growth
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Looking Ahead... Inland Empire Is a Job Engine Again Construction Coming Back … Residential Still Weak Manufacturing Will Be Under Pressure Logistics Will Remain Strong Health Care Should Expand Office Growth An Issue Given E-Commerce Changes Lower Paying Jobs Smaller Share Than Most Areas Labor Availability May Become An Issue Forecast? 3.6% to 4.0% (49,046 – 54,496)
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www.johnhusing.com
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