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John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Prosperity...

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Presentation on theme: "John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Prosperity..."— Presentation transcript:

1 John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Prosperity...

2 After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs … Now At A Record Level of Jobs U.S. Jobs Long Slow Growth - Not Over-Heating

3 Petroleum Prices Back to 2003 Levels Helps Families In Modest Income Areas

4 Value of the Dollar: Helps Imports & Hurts Exports 2012-2015 28.0% 100.0

5 Consumer Confidence, 2009-2016 Needed To Help Homes Sales

6 S & P 500 Stock Index Back to 2,000

7 Interest Rates Very Low Again Encourages Home Sales

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9 California Wage & Salary Employment: A Record Level

10 California Job Gains/Losses 2007 15,844,325 Great Recession -1,178,158 2015 16,474,808 Up 630,483 4.0% Up Recovery 1,809,542

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12 Inland Empire Economy Gaining Strength!

13 Job Quality

14 Inland Empire Growth was the 2 nd Largest Absolute Job Gain in California in 2015!

15 Unemployment Falling

16 The Issue: Poverty

17 Diversity Challenge

18 Gold Mine Theory Primary Tier Secondary Tier

19 Educational Challenge For Adults & Their Children

20 Health Care

21 Health Care Jobs: Continuous Growth 2011-2015 12% of Job Growth Median Pay $54,261

22 Inland Empire Underserved by Health Care Workers 26.6% More People Per Health Care Worker in 2015

23 Sophisticated Warehousing Operations

24 Port Container Volumes Strong Even With January Labor Slowdown

25 Fulfillment Warehousing

26 E-Commerce Growth Rates Year Over Year by Quarter

27 Net Industrial Space Absorption 23.1 million 20.7 Million Sq. Ft. of Industrial Under Construction December-2015

28 Industrial Overwhelmingly In The Inland Empire

29 Industrial Vacancy Rate 3.6% 3.9%

30 Asking Lease Rates On Industrial Facilities Are Rising

31 Logistics Powerful Job Growth Median Pay $45,677 2011-2015: 23% of New Jobs

32 Permit Valuation Increasing But Slowly

33 PM 2.5: Diesel Pollution -95.6%

34 Manufacturing: Should Be A Major Growth Source

35 California Manufacturing Job Growth Just 5.4% of U.S. Growth

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37 CA Is Not Loved By Executives & Entrepreneurs

38 Inland Empire Manufacturing Jobs 2011-2015 5% of Job Growth Median Pay $49,567

39 Construction: Finally Coming Back

40 Notices of Default At Very Low Levels Only 1,000 NODs in January 2016

41 Underwater Homeowners Negative Equity Has Dropped 4 th Qtr 2009 – 3rd Qtr 2015 54.9% to 11.4%

42 Home Price Trends 83.4% -26.9%

43 Long Term Competitive Price Advantage Still Exists $190,000 $202,000 $379,000

44 Affordability to Median Income Household 3 rd Quarter 2015 I. Empire: 45%-55% LA: 27%-73% Orange: 21%-79% SD: 25%-75%

45 Home Sales Volume No Breakout

46 Domestic In-Migration: Stalled -10,241 8 Years -1,280 per year

47 Construction Jobs: Growth Gaining Median Pay $51,051 2011-2015 13% of Job Growth

48 Assessed Valuation 2008-2015 Up $3.2 Billion 0.8% Inflation Up 8.6% SB Co. Up +2.8% Riv Co. Down -0.8%

49 High Paying Sectors Jack Dangermond Ahmad Adel Al-Khatib

50 Higher End Homes Draw Well Educated Workers $599,310 $449,386 $497,455 UPLAND EASTVALE $465,532 $504,397 $450,500 CORONA $441,965 TEMECULA $376,303$405,538 $594,476 Claremont $353,820$355,000 Loma Linda

51 Migration of AA or Higher Redlands-Loma Linda Western Inland Empire Temecula-Murrieta

52 Professionals, Mgmt., Utilities, Mining Slowly Coming Back Median Pay $65,453 2011-2015 3.6% of Growth

53 Office Space Net Absorption 492,858

54 Office Vacancy Rate 15.0%

55 Gold Mine Theory Primary Tier Secondary Tier

56 Retail Sales 2006-2015 Up $7.7 Billion, 12.6% Inflation Up 16.1% SB Co. Up +14.4% Riv Co. Up +10.7%

57 Low Paying Job Growth Retail, Consumer & Bus. Services, Hotel, Eat & Drink Amusement, Agriculture, Employment Agency 2011-2015 44% of Job Growth Median Pay $28,927

58 Federal, State, Local Government Median Pay $57,984 2011-2015 -5% of Job Growth

59 Looking Ahead... Inland Empire Is a Job Engine Again Construction Coming Back … Residential Still Weak Manufacturing Will Be Under Pressure Logistics Will Remain Strong Health Care Should Expand Office Growth An Issue Given E-Commerce Changes Lower Paying Jobs Smaller Share Than Most Areas Labor Availability May Become An Issue Forecast? 3.6% to 4.0% (49,046 – 54,496)

60 www.johnhusing.com


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