1. Setting a Degree Attainment Goal: North Carolina UNC Advisory Committee on Strategic Directions October 24, 2012

2. Ground Rules for the Data Degree attainment goals should be set with direction in mind Best estimates with the data available Data are collected for different purposes and with different levels of detail Data come from multiple Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys We have been as consistent as possible in using comparable data sources, dates, populations, and calculation methods.

3. The Need for Degrees in North Carolina: Three Projections 10/24/20123

4. Typical, entry-level education Top 5 most educated states Projections of Degree Attainment Options: 2010 to 2020 10/24/20124

5. Basis for the Three Projections 1.Typical, entry-level education (based on BLS economists’ opinion) Adjusted based on estimate of 25-64 year old share of the workforce Adjusted based on estimate of 25-64 year old share of the workforce 2.Projected education levels in 2020 based on recent trends in workers’ actual education levels (2010 American Community Survey) 3.Average degree attainment level of top five most educated states in 2010 (2010 American Community Survey) 10/24/20125

6. Degree Requirements for the Workforce: Why Projections Differ

7. Example: Projected Educational Requirements for Health Practitioners and Technicians (Nurses, Doctors, Health Therapists, Technicians, etc.) 10/24/20127

8. Comparing Projected Educational Requirements for All Occupations 10/24/20128

9. Beyond Workforce Demand: Other Factors

10. Degree Attainment Goal Setting: Other Factors None of these projections factor: Aspiration to be a highly educated state Aspiration to be a highly educated state Higher Education = Higher Income Higher Education = Higher Income Higher Education = Cost Avoidance for Medicaid, Corrections, Food Stamps, Other Government Programs Higher Education = Cost Avoidance for Medicaid, Corrections, Food Stamps, Other Government Programs Higher Education = Better Health Higher Education = Better Health Higher Education = Increased Civic Engagement Higher Education = Increased Civic Engagement Higher Education = More Volunteerism Higher Education = More Volunteerism 10/24/201210

11. Degree Attainment Goal Setting: Factoring New and Emerging Industries These projections are based on industries and occupations in North Carolina. These projections are based on existing industries and occupations in North Carolina. – Do not factor emerging industries with potentially different educational requirements. – Economic development policies that may deliberately target a different industrial mix. 10/24/201211