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COMPARATIVE POVERTY PROGRESS IN AFRICA, AND CHANGES IN (P.C.) GDP, INCOME, AND INEQUALITY BY COUNTRY African Economic Development, Lecture 2 10 th May.

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Presentation on theme: "COMPARATIVE POVERTY PROGRESS IN AFRICA, AND CHANGES IN (P.C.) GDP, INCOME, AND INEQUALITY BY COUNTRY African Economic Development, Lecture 2 10 th May."— Presentation transcript:

1 COMPARATIVE POVERTY PROGRESS IN AFRICA, AND CHANGES IN (P.C.) GDP, INCOME, AND INEQUALITY BY COUNTRY African Economic Development, Lecture 2 10 th May 2016 By Prof. Augustin K. FOSU Visiting Professor of Economics Aalto University Helsinki, FINLAND

2 POVERTY TRENDS: AFRICA vs. OTHER REGIONS Data source: World Bank, 2015

3 POVERTY TRENDS: AFRICA vs. OTHER REGIONS (CONT’D.) Data source: World Bank, 2015

4 POVERTY TRENDS: AFRICA vs. OTHER REGIONS (CONT’D.) Data source: World Bank, 2015

5 POVERTY TRENDS: AFRICA vs. OTHER REGIONS (CONT’D.) Data source: World Bank, 2015

6 POVERTY TRENDS: AFRICA vs. OTHER REGIONS (CONT’D.) Data source: World Bank, 2015

7 POVERTY TRENDS: AFRICA vs. OTHER REGIONS (CONT’D.) Data source: World Bank, 2015

8 SSA vs. DEVELOPING WORLD: POVERTY RATES, RATIOS AND GROWTH RATES, US$1.25 Headcount Pov. Rate (%) Pov. Gap (%) Squared Pov. Gap 1981 SSA52.7522.8212.97 DW52.7121.7411.41 SSA/DW1.001.051.14 1993 SSA59.9227.2915.84 DW41.4513.956.45 SSA/DW1.451.962.46 2011 SSA46.8519.210.4 DW16.995.052.31 SSA/DW2.763.804.50 Growth rate (%) SSA1.061.491.67 (1981-1993) DW-2.00-3.70-4.75 Growth rate (%) SSA-1.37-1.95-2.34 (1993-2011) DW-4.95-5.64-5.70

9 ANNUALIZED GROWTH RATES OF POVERTY MEASURES CountryPeriod Annualized Growth in Pov. MeasuresQuintile Rank Headcount $1.25 Pov. Gap $1.25 Sqd Pov. Gap $1.25 Headcount Angola2000-2009-2.65-7.05-10.853 Benin2003-20121.022.112.585 Botswana2003-2009-8.88-11.47-12.731 Burkina Faso1998-2009-4.13-6.61-8.342 Burundi1992-2006-0.25-0.71-1.264 Cape Verde2002-2008-7.34-11.07-13.071 Cameroon1996-2007-4.92-7.13-8.992 CAR2003-20080.131.993.635 Chad2003-2011-6.21-6.97-7.111 Congo Rep2005-2011-8.33-11.46-13.351 Cote d'Ivoire1998-20081.533.525.45 Egypt1996-2008-3.050.685.093 Ethiopia2000-2011-3.58-3.78-3.882 Gambia1998-2003-13.37-21.24-27.571 Ghana1998-2006-4.33-5.15 2

10 CountryPeriod Annualized Growth in Pov. MeasuresQuintile Rank Headcount $1.25 Pov. Gap $1.25 Sqd Pov. Gap $1.25 Headcount Guinea-Bissau1993-2002-3.22-6.23-8.433 Kenya1997-20053.686.459.155 Lesotho2003-20100.250.540.625 Madagascar1997-20101.513.023.825 Malawi1998-2010-1.12-2.34-3.174 Mali2001-2010-2.11-4.99-7.454 Mauritania1996-20080.01-0.31-0.734 Morocco1999-2007-11.38-8.68-4.031 Mozambique1996-2009-2.28-3.75-4.593 Namibia2004-2010-5.22-8.55-11.62 Niger2005-2011-3.8-11.27-17.622 Nigeria1996-2010-0.75-1.17-1.484 Rwanda2000-2011-2.13-4.19-5.743 Sao Tome*2001-20104.586.027.515 Senegal2001-2011-2.59-2.56-2.473 Sierra Leone2003-2011-0.61-2.07-3.294

11 CountryPeriod Annualized Growth in Pov. Measures Quintile Rank Headcount $1.25 Pov. Gap $1.25 Sqd Pov. Gap $1.25 Headcount South Africa Swaziland 2000-2011 2001-2010 -9.59 -18.07 0.27 -26.16 1.7 1414 Tanzania2000-2012-5.82-10.16-13.612 Togo2006-2011-0.262.054.324 Tunisia2000-2010-11.9-8.01-3.91 Uganda1996-2013-3.14-4.25-5.223 Zambia1996-20101.292.493.225 Mean -3.17-4.25-4.92 Median-2.65-4.19-4.03 (Angola)(Rwanda)(Morocco) Std. dev. 4.156.118.25

12 ANNUALIZED GROWTH RATES OF PER CAPITA GDP, INCOME, AND INEQUALITY CountryP.C. GDP growthIncome growth Inequality growth Angola8.13-0.59-3.74 Benin0.620.421.41 Botswana2.082.1-1.02 Burkina Faso2.482.73-1.49 Burundi-2.930.76-0.01 Cape Verde7.22-0.81-2.45 Cameroon1.252.51-0.82 CAR3.364.105.13 Chad5.345.851.00 Congo Rep1.874.20-2.73 Cote d'Ivoire-1.32-0.071.01 Egypt3.221.220.16 Ethiopia5.742.261.03 Gambia1.0813.32-1.21

13 Country P.C. GDP growth Income growth Inequality growth Ghana2.343.410.66 Guinea0.201.45-1.99 Guinea-Bissau-2.311.11-3.31 Kenya0.34-2.690.33 Lesotho3.410.560.66 Madagascar-0.02-2.690.28 Malawi1.191.82-0.67 Mali2.061.19-2.14 Mauritania0.550.560.65 Morocco3.472.490.42 Mozambique4.713.370.21 Namibia2.681.89-0.71 Niger0.83-0.86-6.59 Nigeria4.290.51-0.58 Rwanda5.003.64-0.12 Sao Tome2.51-6.24-4.27

14 CountryP.C. GDP growthIncome growth Inequality growth Senegal1.021.48-0.23 Sierra Leone2.620.04-1.38 South Africa2.046.91.11 Swaziland1.220.23-0.40 Tanzania3.866.840.78 Togo0.730.941.69 Tunisia3.342.15-1.26 Uganda3.043.391.12 Zambia3.28-1.201.03 Mean2.321.75-0.47 Median2.341.45-0.12 (Ghana)(Guinea)(Rwanda) Std. dev.2.293.151.99

15 QUINTILE RANKS CountryP.C. GDPIncomeInequality Pov. Headcount Pov. Gap Sqd Pov. Gap Angola151322 Benin545554 Botswana322111 Burkina Faso322222 Burundi543444 Cape Verde151111 Cameroon422222 CAR215555 Chad114122 Congo Rep411111 Cote d'Ivoire555555 Egypt233345 Ethiopia125233 Gambia412111

16 CountryP.C. GDPIncomeInequality Pov. Headcount Pov. Gap Sqd Pov. Gap Ghana314233 Guinea531222 Guinea-Bissau531322 Kenya554555 Lesotho244544 Madagascar554555 Malawi432444 Mali331432 Mauritania544444 Morocco224113 Mozambique123333 Namibia232221 Niger451211

17 CountryP.C. GDPIncomeInequality Pov. Headcount Pov. Gap Sqd Pov. Gap Nigeria143444 Rwanda113332 Sao Tome351555 Senegal433334 Sierra Leone342443 South Africa315111 Swaziland443444 Tanzania114211 Togo445455 Tunisia222123 Uganda225333 Zambia255555

18 Thank you! Prof. Augustin K. FOSU Visiting Professor of Economics Aalto University Helsinki, FINLAND afosu@isser.edu.gh

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