1. Whither WTO? Old Interests and New Coalitions after Cancún. Professor Dr. Rolf J. Langhammer, Kiel

2. I.The WTO before Cancún: Success Eats Success More members, more heterogeneity: The club model vanishes. So does the quality of the “club” good (services) More tasks, more trade-offs (allocation vs distribution targets, assignment problem, overloading)

3. A mercantilist alternative to multilateralism at hand: “Competitive regionalism” Perception of costless non-membership (Rose): Non-members and members trade as intensively among each other as members.

4. II. The WTO after Cancún: The Institution at Risk Lacking credibility: The “Development Round” as a misnomer: “trade and...” Lacking enforceability of commitments (agriculture, textiles) Lacking workability: one country, one vote, single undertaking

5. North – South divide: G-21: Without concessions no reciprocity US/EU: Without reciprocity no concessions Effects of China’s accession to the WTO: Middle- income countries in a sandwich position (ToT pressure from bottom and top

6. Sources: World Development Indicators 2003. - World Trade Organization; Annual Report 2002. - Gwartney, James und Robert Lawson, Economic Freedom of the World, 2003 Annual Report, Vancouver. B.C. - World Trade Organization; World Trade Report 2003b. List of Indicators: 1 Share of exports and imports in GDP, 2001 2 Share in world merchandise trade (exports), 2001 3 Share in world merchandise trade (imports), 2001 4 Growth of merchandise export volume, 1990-2000 5 Change in product structure (share of manufactures in merchandise exports), 1998-00 6 MFN applied tariffs for non- agricultural products (Simple average) Indicator:

7. The Big Two without a round: For mercantilists no problem

8. III. Is there a Way out of the Cancún Impasse? Everything depends on the EU: No apologies for trade barriers and sluggish growth G-21 must either compromise or vanish Developed countries must abandon “trade and...” issues (Singapore issues)

9. Rule discipline vs trade liberalisation: More of the former at the expense of the latter? “Proprietor” vs “consumer behaviour”: “variable geometry” or “different speeds” in the WTO: The old idea of GATT-plus or conditional MFN.

10. Thank you!