1. INVESTMENT CLIMATEDEVELOPMENT IMPACT EVALUATION INITIATIVE Moldova ECA Multi-Country Food Safety Study Impact Evaluation Concept Note INNOVATIONS IN INVESTMENT CLIMATE REFORMS AN IMPACT EVALUATION WORKSHOP PARIS, NOVEMBER 2012

2.  Moldova’s negotiations of a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with EU are scheduled to conclude June 2013 (including any ‘blacklist’)  Single Food Safety Agency (FSA) and Food Safety (FS) laws are pre-conditions for FTA  FTA will come into effect 6 months after negotiation deadline, January 2014  By that time, all plant origin products comply, but animal products, not until 2016 Context

3. IFC interventions are part of support to GoM in meeting FS FTA pre-conditions and improving competitiveness:  Help draft the FS Law and associated national technical regulations  Support the creation of the FSA and its implementation capacity of FS laws  Support FSA in private sector delegation of FS compliance activities (including info campaign)  Risk-based inspections reform IFC Support

4. ActivitiesIntermediate Outcomes Overall Outcomes Increase competitiveness of agricultural products from Moldova Increase the level of FDI in the sector Sign a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the EU GoM Theory of Change for Agricultural Sector (IFC participation in white) Growth in Exports to the EU Growth in domestic market share for F&V and animal products Inspections Reform Build implementation capacity for FS requirements among firms and agencies Establish Food Safety Infrastructure required for EU Export Animal welfare compliance work GoM subsidy to investment in agricultural infrastructure (e.g. postharvest or irrigation) GoM subsidy to investment in agricultural infrastructure (e.g. postharvest or irrigation)

5. 1. What is the impact of the FTA on Moldovan agricultural export and import volumes, destination and/or diversification; by size firm? 2. What is the role of FS work in these results? 3. What are the most effective FS dissemination/training approaches to ensure FS compliance? (relevant as other subsectors come on line, e.g. meat products) What are the Questions of Interest?

6. What methods can we use to establish causality and explain process of change?  Gravity model with FS index  Discontinuity analysis around FTA date  Randomization in FS information dissemination (within agri sector or sub- sector, for greater homogeneity)  Constructed panel of agri firms with duration analysis (why, how and how long firms take to adjust to (i) FS and FTA info; and (ii) FTA) Establishing causality and explaining change process

7.  The units of FS intervention in Moldova are national (FS Law, FSA) and at firm level (inspections reform, FS implementation)  Type of data to be used will probably include: high frequency customs data to 2-3 digit classification; FDI data; firm level survey data  Some stratification may apply according to sub sector for the RCT, if sample sizes permit Sampling and Data

8.  IFC Task Team (Eugeniu Osmochescu, Yuriy Kuzmyn)  Regional M&E team (Soren Heitmann)  ECA Food Safety Multi-Country Study Research Team  Professor Tom Reardon (Michigan State)  Professor Jo Swinnen (Unversity of Leuven)  Loraine Ronchi (IFC) Project Team