1. WICCI Forestry Roundtables: Welcome and Overview

2. Forestry WG - Purpose Professional foresters Conservation professionals Motivated landowners Others?

3. Forestry WG - Audience Professional foresters Conservation professionals Forest industry Researchers

4. Why should I care?

5. Wisconsin’s Forests Figures: Perry et al. 2012 (www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/41698)www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/41698 Who owns them?Where are they? Weight of Live Trees (tons/acre)

6. Making Today Useful Focus on the topic at hand Ask questions of presenters and each other Make ideas better – constructive, not critical Be realistic with your expectations Help us move forward after today

7. Kick-off Discussion Key climate impacts? Key concerns? Adaptation actions? Other key topics?

8. Climate Change in Wisconsin: what we know, what we expect, and how it relates to forests

9. Climate and Wisconsin Forests Figure: SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, ORBIMAGE

10. Climate vs. Weather

11. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us Weather

12. www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201502 Weather - 2016

13. www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201502 Weather - 2015

14. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us Weather

15. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us Weather + Time = Climate Long-term average

16. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us Climate Change Long-term trend

17. Change in Seasonal Temperature, 1950-2006 www.wicci.wisc.edu Observed Temperature Change (F) WinterSpring

18. Change in Seasonal Temperature, 1950-2006 www.wicci.wisc.edu Observed Temperature Change (F) SummerFall

19. Change in Seasonal Precipitation, 1950-2006 www.wicci.wisc.edu Observed Precipitation Change (in) Winter Spring

20. Change in Seasonal Precipitation, 1950-2006 www.wicci.wisc.edu Observed Precipitation Change (in) Summer Fall

21. Frequency of 3”+ rainstorms in WI Saunders 2012 Observed Trends in Extreme Weather

22. 12-24 fewer soil frost days per yr since 1900 1-2 more freeze-thaw cycles per yr since 1900 6-8 day advance in growing season since 1950 2 days/decade earlier ice out since 1950 Observed Trends in Phenology

23. Climate Change and Forests It’s not the complete story, but the story’s not complete without it. Frerker et al. 2014, Nowacki and Abrams 2014

24. OK, so what do we expect in the future?

25. An Uncertain Future Don’t wait for a crystal ball

26. Two scenarios of future GHG emissions Future Change - Uncertainty IPCC 2007, Graphic: C. Wake, University of New Hampshire

27. Projected Change - Temp HighLow Hayhoe 2010, Stoner et al. 2013

28. Projected Change - Precip Hayhoe 2010, Stoner et al. 2013 HighLow

29. Last Spring Frost Source: www.nelson.wisc.edu/ccr/resources/visualization-and-tools.php MRI ModelIPSL Model

30. Annual Snowfall MRI ModelIPSL Model Source: www.nelson.wisc.edu/ccr/resources/visualization-and-tools.php

31. Nights Below 0ºF MRI ModelIPSL Model Source: www.nelson.wisc.edu/ccr/resources/visualization-and-tools.php

32. What could this mean for forests?

33. Impacts on Forests Longer growing season CO 2 fertilization Altered soil moisture Extreme weather events Less frozen ground Increased fire risk Species range shifts Increased stressors Sources: Handler et al. 2014, Janowiak et al. 2014

34. Longer Growing Season Benefits: -More time for growth! Limits: -Early bud break/loss of cold hardening -Frost damage with spring frosts Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011

35. CO 2 Fertilization Benefits: -Increased growth -Water-use efficiency Limits: -Other nutrients or water -Stressors or disturbance Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011, Coture et al. 2015

36. Altered Soil Moisture Water loss from soils (evaporation) Greater uncertainty about future precipitation, but great risk of summer moisture stress Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Runoff Precipitation

37. Extreme events are rare and hard to model. Extreme Weather Events

38. Frozen ground conditions have decreased across over the last 60+ years – WI example Less Frozen Ground Source: C. Rittenhouse (UConn) and A. Rissman (UW-Madison), in review Frozen Ground Season Annual data Trend Frozen Ground Days Annual data Trend

39. Wildfire Risk Source: Guyette et al. 2014, Tang et al. 2014, Miranda et al. 2012, Moritz et al. 2012, Nowacki et al. 2014 Fire may increase, because: Warmer/drier summers Increased mortality from stress, pests, events More frequent weather conditions that promote large fires …or maybe not, because: Fire suppression will continue Spring/early summer moisture Current regeneration of more mesic species Spatial patterns of land use and fragmentation

40. Species Range Shifts Sugar Maple Source: Louis Iverson et al. (US Forest Service) 2070-2100 Low 2070-2100 High Current Importance Value Low High www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/

41. Species Range Shifts 2070-2100 Low 2070-2100 High White Oak Source: Louis Iverson et al. (US Forest Service) Current Importance Value Low High www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/

42. Species Range Shifts 2070-2100 Low 2070-2100 High Quaking Aspen Source: Louis Iverson et al. (US Forest Service) Current Importance Value Low High www.fs.fed.us/nrs/atlas/

43. Hemlock wooly adelgid: Pest limited by cold temps Exotic Earthworms: Increase drought susceptibility Invasive Plants: Outcompete stressed trees Increased Stressors Many forests are already under stress from other causes. Climate change could make forests more susceptible to existing or new stressors. Images: US Forest Service and L. Mehrhoff (UConn: invasives.org)

44. Vulnerability by Forest Type Community TypePotential ImpactsAdaptive CapacityVulnerability Upland spruce-fir NegativeModerate-Low High Lowland conifers NegativeModerate-Low High Lowland-riparian hardwoods Moderate-NegativeModerate Moderate-High Aspen-birch Moderate-NegativeModerate-High Red pine Moderate-NegativeModerate-Low Moderate-High Jack pine Moderate-NegativeModerate-High Moderate Northern hardwoods Moderate-NegativeModerate-High Moderate White pine Moderate-NegativeHigh Moderate-Low Oak associations ModerateModerate-High Moderate- Low Source: Janowiak et al. 2014

45. Management Implications Quality & productivity Harvest operations Infrastructure Economics Wildlife habitat Recreation Cultural values Others?

46. Location, Location, Location Research and assessments describe broad trends but local conditions and management make the difference. Your knowledge and experience is crucial!

47. Questions? www.ForestAdaptation.org

48. Change in Annual Temperature, 1950-2006 www.wicci.wisc.edu Observed Temperature Change (F)

49. Change in Annual Precipitation, 1950-2006 www.wicci.wisc.edu Observed Precipitation Change (in)

50. Days Above 90ºF MRI ModelIPSL Model Source: www.nelson.wisc.edu/ccr/resources/visualization-and-tools.php

51. Streamflow Changes High-flow days become much more common in winter and spring Low-flow days become much more common in summer and fall Cherkauer et al. 2010

52. Vulnerability Extent Health/ Function Identity

53. Even More Information Climate Change Resource Center WI Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) http://www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc/, www.wicci.wisc.edu

54. Milankovich Cycles Climate change has happened before Climate change is a natural process (until now)