1. ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACT ON AQUACULTURE AND FISHERIES IN CEE Dr. Mahesh Kumar Singh

2. INTRODUCTION  Scientific findings indicate that aquatic climate change impacts are becoming more apparent and will continue to have a profound effect on the productivity of fisheries and the distribution of fish stocks around the world.  From a social and economic point of view, it is clear that the effects of climate change will result in the redistribution of costs and benefits for the fisheries sector and for coastal communities, but how much, when and to whom these benefits and costs will flow are less clear.  In this regard, there is a need for fisheries policy makers to develop strategies and decision-making models to adapt to climate change under uncertainty, while also taking into account social and economic consequences.

3. Impact pathways of climate change 3 Impacts varying by region and adaptive capacity of fish and ecosystems to respond to the physical changes above Global Warming Physical Changes in oceans, lakes and rivers, including… Heat content and temperature Salinity and stratificatio n Sea level rise & change in lake levels & river flows Acidificati on & chemical changes Ocean circulation and upwelling Sediment levels Frequency and severity of extreme events Low frequency climate variability e.g. ENSO Impacts on fish and ecosystems, including… Physiological, spawning & recruitment processes of fish Primary production ( diatoms and phytoplankton ) Secondary production e.g. zooplankton Distribution of fish (permanent & migrations) Abundanc e of fish Phenology e.g. timing of natural phenomen a Species invasion and disease Food web impacts Impacts varying by region/location Effects on fishers, livelihoods, trade, and wider economy/society

4. Climate change implications for fishers 4 Direct biophysical changes Catch/production volumes and mix Direct extreme events impacts Days at sea lost to poor weather Safety Loss/damage to assets (vessels, gear, cages) Indirect impacts; changes in… Fishing and aquaculture strategies (location, target species, seasonality, fishing gears, genetic modification) Value-added and profits Employment Fish as food (availability, stability, access, utilisation of different species) Ability of fisheries to act as livelihoods safety net Balance of fish/fish farming income compared to income from other sources in households i.e. fish as a part of rural livelihoods Costs required for adaptation

5. Climate change implications for national economies 5 Direct impacts; changes in… Volume and species mix available Damage to onshore coastal fisheries infrastructure Coral reef cover Indirect impacts; changes in… Rent generation/extraction by government from sector Fish sector exports (balance of payments, forex earnings, competitiveness) Fish prices Balance of benefits from fishing vs. aquaculture, marine vs. freshwater, and fisheries sector vs. other sectors Fish as food Balance of fish for domestic and export trade Multiplier effects of fishing and aquaculture Displacement and conflict Sector investment Costs of adaptation

6. Impacts of climate change specifically on fish trade

7. Impacts of climate change specifically on trade include:  Increasing severity of extreme events, sea level rise and changes in flood regimes  Variability of supplies due to increasing seasonal and annual variations in catches  Major discontinuities in supply due to damage to infrastructure  Physical impacts on biomass and location of fish available for catching and then trade  Adaptive measures affecting marketing chain (i.e. switch to different species, to aquaculture) 7

8. These impacts in turn likely to affect  Trade volumes and values  Domestic vs export trade  Traded vs subsistence  Balance of marine/inland, wild/farmed  Contribution of fish to total exports  Balance of trade and forex earnings  Value-added and profits from trade  Ability to sell licences to foreign vessels 8

9. Impacts of climate change on trade: important caveats  Climate change just one of many factors affecting fisheries and related trade.  Time-scales  Uncertainties in climate change models, and a lack of resolution in estimations at country level  Quantitative projections not possible, but can describe types of changes and pathways 9

10. Vulnerability to climate change 10 Exposure: The nature and degree to which fisheries production systems are exposed to climate change Adaptive capacity: Ability or capacity of a system to modify or change to cope with changes in actual or expected climate stress Potential impact: All impacts that may occur without taking into account planned adaptation Sensitivity: Degree to which national economies are dependent on fisheries and therefore sensitive to any change in the sector = Vulnerability

11. Case Studies: - Case Studies: - Hungary - Czech Republic - Serbia - Romania

12. Case studies: What we are doing..  Presenting baseline indicators of dependency, exposure and adaptive capacity;  Providing information on current trade; and  Outline possible climate change impacts and consider how the baseline figures, the status quo, and current trade might be affected by climate change 12

13. Trade status in case study countries presented in terms of:  Volume and value of exports  Main markets  Main product forms  Main competitors 13 Main stakeholders Value-added and profitability Foreign licences Trends in above

14. What can countries do to maintain trade competitiveness  Adapt  Mitigate both can  ensure that production levels are maintained or increased on a sustainable basis for trade, and to assist with safeguarding of private sector profits; and  include policy options that are very specifically trade-related, and which provide opportunities that could result in competitive advantages being gained by countries implementing them 14

15. Adaptation at fisher/community level 15 Impact of climate change on fisheries Potential adaptation measures Reactive/ anticipatory Reduced yields Access higher value markets/shifting targeted speciesEither Increase effort or fishing powerEither Reduce costs to increase efficiencyEither Diversify livelihoodsEither Exit the fisheryEither Increased variability of fisheries Diversify livelihood portfolioEither Engage with insurance schemesAnticipatory Change in distribution of fisheries Migration of fishing effort/strategies and processing/distribution facilitiesEither Reduced profitability Exit the fishery, or focus on other ways to maintain profitsEither Vulnerability of infrastructure and communities to flooding, sea level rise and storm surges Add new or improved physical flood and coastal defencesAnticipatory Managed retreat/accommodationEither Rehabilitate infrastructure, design disaster response Anticipatory Set up early warning systems, educationAnticipatory Increased dangers of fishing Invest in improved vessel stability, safety and communicationsAnticipatory

16. Adaption at national level  Fisheries management frameworks supportive of sustainability  Strategies for infrastructure (ensuring there are safe havens, and climate proofing developments)  Disaster preparedness  Ensuring an enabling business environment  Support for technological developments facilitating adaptive measures 16

17. Adaption at national level, cont’d.  Manage declining incomes if fish catches fall, and efforts aimed at diversification  Aquaculture development  Ecosystem adaptation (e.g. support for wetlands: provide protection and breeding/nursery areas)  Ensure policy coherence 17

18. Mitigation  Technical innovations to reduce fuel usage and emissions in fishing vessel engines  Promotion of fuel-efficient fishing methods (e.g. static methods rather than trawling), through differential licensing conditions and/or decommissioning support;  Research into support for low impact aquaculture e.g. herbivorous aquaculture species  Improvements in building design and handling practices e.g. through better insulation in ice plants, freezing plants;  'Environmentally-friendly' technologies; and 18

19. Thank you!