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1 Industrial Alliance Group Webinar Economic and Financial Risks François Lalande Vice-President, Investments Portfolio Management A PARTNER YOU CAN TRUST. 10 YEARS ON THE TSX! Quebec City, May 18, 2010
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2 Economic Conditions: From Recession to Rebound Source: IMF, IAIM
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3 V-Shaped Recovery? Source: BMO AM charts 2010-04-13
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4 Market Recovery IndexBottomDate2010-05-12 Gains S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX7,567 March 9, 2009 12,00158.6% S&P 500 INDEX677 March 9, 2009 1,15670.8% DOW JONES INDUS. AVG6,547 March 9, 2009 10,74864.2% RUSSELL 3000 INDEX390 March 9, 2009 68375.4% FTSE 100 INDEX3,512 March 3, 2009 5,38353.3% NIKKEI 2257,055 March 10, 2009 10,39447.3% CAC 40 INDEX2,519 March 9, 2009 3,73448.2% DAX INDEX3,666 March 6, 2009 6,18368.7% S&P/ASX 200 INDEX3,146 March 6, 2009 4,573 45.4%
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5 Risk Premiums: Back to Where We Started
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6 Performance of Various Asset Classes ( 1 year to April 30, 2010 ) Total Return
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7 Performance of Various Asset Classes ( YTD as of April 30, 2010 ) Total Return
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8 Risks Euro Zone (PIIGS) United States Exit Strategies
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9 Risks: Euro Zone Source: Morgan Stanley, IMF, IAIM Common currency = devaluation is impossible Fiscal rigor = slow economic growth Difficult economic conditions for a number of years "Too Big To Fail"
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10 Risks: United States - Employment Non-Farm Payrolls
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11 Risks: Exit Strategies Federal Reserve’s Mandate: Full employment
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12 Federal Reserve’s Mandate: Price stability and moderate long- term rates Risks: Exit Strategies
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13 Risks: Exit Strategies (Canada)
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14 Risks: Exit Strategies (Canada)
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15 BMO Capital Markets Risks: Exit Strategies (Canada)
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16 Market Perspectives - Bonds Bond Market: Destiny linked to target interest rate and inflation perspectives Combination of floating rate notes and long-term bonds
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17 Market Perspectives - Equity Stock Markets: Destiny linked to earnings Optimism linked to accomodating policies
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18 Our asset allocation Short term Bonds Canadian equity Global equity Reasons for our positioning: Short term: Short-term rates are practically at zero; reserves for opportunities Bonds: Limited potential tending toward zero; refuge asset when risks become significant Stocks: Positive economic signs; expansionary conditions maintained TARGET
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19 Questions
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20 Thank you ! DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this presentation are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. They are not intended to provide specific investment advice. Any forward looking statements in this document are not guarantees of performance. They involve numerous risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Although these assumptions are made upon what we believe to be reasonable, there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from our expectations.
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