1. Module 9 Assessing Risk and Fostering Adaptability

2. The 2030 Agenda “It [follow-up and review] will mobilize support to overcome shared challenges and identify new and emerging issues.” “They [follow-up and review] will maintain a longer-term orientation, identify achievements, challenges, gaps and critical success factors and support countries in making informed policy choices.”

3. We are here

4. Adaptive Governance Risk analysis and management Scenario planning and stress testing:

5. Guidance Step #1 Adaptive Governance To provide a general framework for effectively navigating uncertainty, change and surprise across all of the practice areas covered in the Reference Guide

6. The starting point UNEP’s 5th Global Environment Outlook noted the following: “Recognizing that humanity is encroaching on critical planetary boundaries, new modes of adaptive governance are needed to initiate transition management and achieve internationally agreed goals and targets.”

7. Guidance Adaptive Governance “It is nearly impossible to create a fail-proof blueprint or to formulate optimal policies. What is required instead is an inclusive, learn-by-doing process with careful monitoring of policy effects, and an ability to make critical choices and improvements consistent with the trajectories leading to established goals (UNEP 2012).”

8. Guidance Adaptive Governance Approaches Multi-actor deliberation and agenda building. Futures analysis and long- term collective goal setting. Variation, experimentation and innovation Reflexivity and adaptation

9. Tool Risk Informed Development Planning System (RIDPS) Developed by UNICEF to produce real-time data for risks and vulnerabilities using climate and other hazard indicators and child risk indicators. It is designed to: support risk informed development planning; analyse multiple sectors in one tool at the same time; and identify data collection gaps and enhance data collection and analysis skills. The tool allows users to access, analyse, visualize and export data to meet risk informed analysis, planning and reporting needs, quickly and easily. It allows users and sector specialists to select, aggregate, disaggregate and cross-analyse multiple indicators into composite indexes; and supports the identification of correlations and composite levels of vulnerability across sectors, contributing to risk informed development programming.

10. Tool ADAPTool The Adaptive Design and Assessment Policy Tool Self assessment tool to examine: 1.Ability of existing policies to support sector adaptations to specific stressors 2.Ability of policies to be adapt themselves to changing conditions brought on by the stressors

11. Discussion Which adaptive governance and policy- making approaches have you encountered? What were the challenges and successes?

12. Guidance Step #2 Risk analysis and management For the systematic identification and management of the risks facing the implementation of national, sub-national and local plans

13. The starting point Risk analysis involves the identification and study of uncertainties that can impact negatively on performance. It is a practice that governments can use not just in the early stages of formulation development plans, but as a regular and formalized process for ongoing improvement.

14. Tool ISO 31000 on Risk Management Principles and Guidelines Governments can manage risks associated with achieving their development plans and nationally-adapted SDGs, This scope is set within the first step on ‘Establishing the Context’. internal context: the “internal environment in which the organization seeks to achieve its objectives (ISD 31000-2009)” and the External context: “the cultural, social, political, legal, regulatory, financial, technological, economic, natural and competitive environment, whether international, national, regional or local; key drivers and trends having impact on the objectives of the organization; and relationships with, and perceptions and values of external stakeholders (ISO 3100- 2009).”

15. Case Example Ecuadorian Secretariat for Risk Management The Ecuadorian Secretariat for Risk Management13 is the Governmental institution that is concerned with risk reduction and emergency and disaster management. Its mission is to ensure the protection of people and communities from the adverse effects of natural or man-made disasters, through the generation of policies, strategies and standards that promote the identification, analysis, prevention and mitigation of risks, emergency situations and disasters.

16. Tool INFORM – Index for Risk Management INFORM is an open-source index for risk management. It is “the first global, objective and transparent tool for understanding the risk of humanitarian crises.” It was developed by the UN Inter-agency Standing Committee Task Team for Preparedness and Resilience and the European Commission. INFORM uses 50 indicators to better understand exposure, hazards, vulnerability and coping capacity in a given country. Data and country profiles are available for 191 countries, showing trends, comparisons with countries having similar risk, regional and income-group averages and more information at the indicator level.

17. Discussion What is the risk management approach used by government in your country? Is it a formalized approach, or ad hoc? What opportunities might there be to mainstream the SDGs into existing risk management processes?

18. Guidance Step #3 Scenario planning and stress testing To be applied regularly in the development planning and policy-making process for detecting emerging issues and examining the ability of plans, policies and programmes to perform under a range of plausible future conditions

19. The starting point Scenario planning is a participatory approach designed to create “frameworks for structuring executives’ perceptions about alternative future environments in which their decisions might play out (Ralston & Wilson, 2006).” It is commonly applied in environmental planning and management, and more recently, for stress testing strategies and policies in the financial sector.

20. Tool Scenario Planning Approaches IISD 2014

21. Case Example Environment Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean The 2010 Environment Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) considered the socio- economic and environmental implications of four plausible future scenarios, namely: (i) relegated sustainability; (ii) sustainability reforms; (iii) unsustainability and increased conflicts; and (iv) transition to sustainability.

22. Group Exercise Creating a Strategy/Policy Wind Tunnel 1.Choose a specific SDG 2.Identify key factors that are important for achieving the goal (i.e., economic, social and environmental) 3.What types of high-level drivers might put stress on these key factors (i.e. climate change, price shock, etc.)? 4.What actions could be taken to mitigate the negative impacts and leverage the opportunities? Select a spokesperson to report back Source: Swanson and Bhadwal (2009)

23. Adaptive Governance Risk analysis and management Scenario planning and stress testing: