1. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security in Kyrgyzstan Roman Mogilevskii, Nazgul Abdrazakova University of Central Asia

2. Background and Contents IMPACT model overview Scenarios’ specification Modelling results

3. Agriculture in Kyrgyzstan

5. Key Crops Subsistence crops dominate over cash ones

6. Regional specialization GrainVegetables MeatMilk

7. Scenario specifications 3 economic scenarios –Baseline – GDP per capita growth rate – 4% per annum –Optimistic – GDP per capita growth rate – 7% per annum –Pessimistic – GDP per capita growth rate – 2% per annum 5 climatic scenarios, RCP 8.5 pathway –No climate change –IPSL –GFDL –MIROC –Hadgem 1 regional yields scenario

8. Producers’ price change: deviation from baseline a) Wheatb) barley c) maize

9. Producers’ price change: deviation from baseline a) Fruitsb) vegetables c) beansd) potatoes

10. Yield change: deviation from baseline a) Wheatb) barley c) maize

11. Yield change: deviation from baseline a) Fruitsb) vegetables c) beansd) potatoes

12. Area change: deviation from baseline a) Wheatb) barley c) maize

13. Area change: deviation from baseline a) Fruitsb) vegetables c) beansd) potatoes

14. Net trade: deviation from baseline a) Wheatb) barley c) maize

15. Net trade: deviation from baseline a) Fruitsb) vegetables c) beansd) potatoes

16. Food Security: Calories per capita, climate effect

17. Food Security: Calories per capita, climate and economic effect

18. Conclusion Climate change comparing to baseline scenario PricesPrice increased for all crops except for barley. Barley prices affected ambiguously Possible explanations: increase of prices in the world market caused by increase in demand and supply YieldsIncreases for all crops except for barley. Effect on bean is very slight and ambiguous Possible explanation: increase in prices makes farmers to invest more in production of crops, climate change prolongs vegetation period for winter crops and decreases for spring crops AreaArea increases for fruits, vegetables, and maize. Barley and beans decreases. Wheat is decreasing but recovering under Hadgem Possible explanations: increase in yields, substitution of subsistence crops by cash crops Net tradeIncrease for all crops except for barley and beans. Barley and beans decreases due to decrease in production Possible explanations: changes in production Food securityClimate change improves the state of agricultural sector while price increase for products negatively affects food security in the country. Economic effects could offset negative climate change impact.

19. Recommendations Shift from subsistence crop production (wheat) to cash crops production (fruits and vegetables); Focus on production of fodder crops rather than on wheat; Facilitate economic development to prevent food insecurity.