1. The evaluation of phenological phases of plants in a flood-plain forest of southern Moravia in 1961 – 2007 Lenka Bartošová (1), Zdeněk Bauer (1), Miroslav Trnka (1), Martin Možný (2), Petr Štěpánek (3), Jan Balek (1) (1) Institute for Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University of Agriculture and Forestry Brno, Czech Republic, Lenka_Bartosova@seznam.cz Lenka_Bartosova@seznam.cz (2) Agrometeorological observatory in Doksany, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Doksany, Czech Republic (3) Department of Climatology and Meteorology, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Brno, Czech Republic Phenology studies periodic events in the life cycles of plants and animals and as they are influenced by the environment. Phenophases might be defined as the milestones in the seasonal development of the given species (such as bud bursting, flowering, leaf unfolding or eggs laying) that could be relatively easily identified and observed. We used uncontrolled ecosystem as a modeling ground in order to develop robust and reliable methodology. In this poster we show our results of oak tree (Quercus robur) bud bursting and full leafing. We have observed birds population and plants species as well and results will be published. Results to process and assess, which meteorological parameters influenced the length and developmental rate of individual phenophases; to analyse how the selected phehophases were changing between 1961 to 2007; to evaluate key meteorological parameters during seasons with unusually short and long phenophases Lenght of the phenophase Phenological input data (bud bursting, flowering etc.) since 1961 to 2007 Meteorological input data – T max, T min, S Rad, Wind, Rain, Vapo Model FenoClim Output data for the period of particular pfenophases – T max, T min, T avg, Rain, S Rad, Day- lenght, DD over treshold We assessed short and long phenophases and phenophases with average length during the observed period (by means of average value and deviation). Temperatures are higher during short phenophses while during long phenophases temperatures tend to be significantly lower (Tab. 1) Beginning of Quercus robur bud bursting (Pict. 1., left axis, solid gray line) has advanced by 9,4 days and full leafing (Pict. 1, left axis, solid black line) has advanced by 10,0 days since 1961 The mean temperature during particular phenophases (Pict. 1., right axis, dashed gray line) show influence on phenophases-length. Low mean temperature caused longer phenophase duration in 1974 (letter A) and higher mean temperature caused shortening of phenophases in 1993 and 1996 (letter B) Lower threshold value for development was determined according to correlation coefficients of, mean and maximum degree days (DD) and the length of given phenophase. The lower threshold value for oak was 0,8°C and in this case the value of DD for full leafing is 220,2°C (Tab. 2) T Avg R 2 = 0,82, r = -0,91**, ↑1°C = ↓2,3 days T Max R 2 = 0,79, r = -0,89**, ↑1°C = ↓1,8 days T Min R 2 = 0,67, r = -0,81**, ↑1°C = ↓2,5 days S Rad R 2 = 0,32, r = -0,57**, ↑1MJ.m -2.den -1 = ↓1,5 days Day-lenght R 2 = 0,04, r = -0,24 Rain R 2 = 0,05, r = 0,22 Methodology The aimsIntroduction A B Statistical analysis showed that Tavg and Tmax influenced the length of phenophases of Quercus robur most significantly. Tmin and Srad influenced the length of phenophases less; Day-length and Rain has no significant influence on length of studied phenophases. Pict. 1: Course of Quercus robur bud bursting and full leafing Tab. 1: Meteorological determinants during long and short phenophases Tab. 2: Values of DD for various lower treshold for development Conclusion The length, duration and timing of Quercus robur phenophases are most closely correlated with the average and maximum temperatures. The phenophases have shifted by over 9 days during past 47 years. The very similar results were observed for other species and these findings will be published. Acknowledgements We gratefully acknowledge the support of the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic (no. 521/08/1682), Research plan No. MSM6215648905 “Biological and technological aspects of sustainability of controlled ecosystems and their adaptability to climate change“ and of KONTAKT OC187 (linked to COST 734) that enabled data collection and development of the FenoClim software used in the study.