1. Terrorism and Counter-terrorism Dr. Lee Jarvis Politics and International Relations University of East Anglia March 2016

2. Four Questions What is terrorism? What causes terrorism? What threat does terrorism pose? How should terrorism be countered?

3. What is Terrorism? Schmid (2011): >250 academic, governmental and inter-governmental definitions. Some common features, but no consensus: Violence Communication Political motivation Non-state perpetrator Controversial Different types of definition: Government definitions are often vague Academic definitions are often complex and long

4. Selected definitions of terrorism (from Shanahan 2010) Terrorism simply means deliberately and violently targeting civilians for political purposes (Richardson 2006) The deliberate creation and exploitation of fear through violence or the threat of violence in the pursuit of political change (Hoffman 2006) Premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets … by sub-national groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience (US Department of State, Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism 2003)

5. Schmid and Jongman (2011) Drawing on 109 different definitions: Terrorism is an anxiety-inspiring method of repeated violent action, employed by (semi-) clandestine individual, group or state actors, for idiosyncratic, criminal or political reasons, whereby – in contrast to assassination – the direct targets of violence are not the main targets. The immediate human targets are generally chosen randomly (targets of opportunity) or selectively (representative or symbolic targets) from a target population, and serve as message generators. Threat- and violence-based communication processes between terrorists (organisation), (imperilled) victims, and main targets are used to manipulate the main target (audiences(s)), turning it into a target of terror, a target of demands, or a target of attention, depending on whether intimidation, coercion or propaganda is primarily sought.

6. Why define terrorism? 3 common reasons: Academic rigour Policy responses Political critique Why is defining terrorism so difficult? A pejorative label: “Terrorism is something the bad guys do” (Richardson 2006) Overuse and ‘stretching’: Cyberterrorism, narcoterrorism, agroterrorism, bioterrorism The meaning of terrorism changes over time: Origins in the French Revolution Diversity of terrorisms: “there is not one terrorism but a variety of terrorisms and what is true for one does not necessarily apply to others” (Laqueur 2003).

7. Question 2 What causes terrorism?

8. Waves of Terrorism David Rapoport (2003): 1880s: Anarchist terrorism 1920s: Anticolonial terrorism Late 1960s: New left terrorism 1979: Religious terrorism. Thoughts: Simplification But, demonstrates: Terrorism’s long history Terrorism’s use for a variety of motives Social contexts matter Ideas and technologies

9. Causes are complicated Macro Contexts Poverty, religion, inequality, foreign policy Often described as ‘root causes’ Micro Individual factors Personalities, psychology, experiences Yet There is no such thing as a ‘terrorist profile’ Most ‘terrorists’ are relatively ‘ordinary’: “most terrorists appear to be normal in a clinical sense” (Schmid 2014)

10. Question 3 What threat does terrorism pose?

11. Measuring threat 2 common approaches: Statistical analysis Likelihood X Impact Precautionary principle The 1% doctrine Global terrorism index (2015): 32,685 deaths from terrorism in 2014 78% in 5 countries: Iraq, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Syria 2.6% of deaths from terrorism since 2000 have occurred in the West Global terrorism database: 50.4% of attacks result in 0 fatalities 90.1% result in 10 or fewer fatalities

12. Threats in context Other forms of violence far outweigh terrorism: 40,000 people die each day from hunger alone Gun crime, traffic accidents, etc. ‘Outside of 2001, fewer people died in America from international terrorism than drowned in toilets’ (Mueller 2005) Why the gap? Fear increases with ‘exotic’ risks (Byman, 2005) Shark attacks, killer bees, flesh-eating diseases Uncertainty leads to exaggeration of fear Fear of violence from other people is often exaggerated Perceptions of control diminish fear (e.g. flying) Cultures of fear Politics, entertainment, news media

13. Question 4 How should terrorism be countered?

14. Types of counter-terrorism DescriptionUnderstanding of terrorism Examples Use of forceMilitary force to disrupt or prevent terrorism A form of warfare Wars on terror Assassinations Intelligence and policing Counter-terrorism via security services A crime Intelligence gathering Community policing Homeland security Improving resilience and protection A manageable security threat Counter-terrorism laws Infrastructure protection Conciliation and dialogue Non-violent efforts to address root causes Outcome of grievances and conditions Negotiations Public diplomacy Development initiatives

15. Counter-terrorism questions Evaluating effectiveness is difficult: Lack of counter-factuals Lack of academic research 7 out of 20,000 academic studies dealt with counter- terrorism’s effectiveness (Lum et al 2006) Terrorist organisations (usually) have a short lifespan Criticisms of counter-terrorism: Excessive: Efforts to kill 41 men in drone strikes to November 2014 led to 1,147 deaths Civil liberty restrictions Counter-terrorism policy is often rushed: The need to be seen to be doing something Demonise minority groups ‘Suspect communities’

16. How terrorism ends (Cronin 2009) Decapitation Capture/killi ng the group’s leader Negotiation Entry into the legitimate political process Success Achievement of the group’s aims Failure Implosion or loss of the group’s public support Repression Defeat and elimination by brute force Reorientation Transition from terrorism into other forms of violence Aum Shinrikyo (Japan) Northern Ireland Peace Process ANC/Umkhon to we Sizwe (Spear of the Nation) Red Army Faction (Germany) LTTE (Sri Lanka) GIA in Algeria (to guerrilla warfare).

17. Thanks for listening! Dr. Lee Jarvis Politics, Philosophy, Language and Communication Studies University of East Anglia Web: leejarvis.com Email: l.jarvis@uea.ac.ukl.jarvis@uea.ac.uk Twitter: @LeeJarvisPols