1. ‘Designer Immigrants’? Experimentation With the Study-Migration Pathway in Australia Lesleyanne Hawthorne Professor – International Workforce International Metropolis Conference 9-13 September 2013 Finland

2. Strengths/ challenges of each option? 1.New Zealand flows (36,416, with 41% annual growth) 2.International students (630,000 enrolled by 2010) 3.Temporary labour migration (457 visa - 131,341) 4.Permanent skilled migration (107,656) 5.Dependents of GSM migrants 6.Family and Humanitarian category migrants Skilled Migration – The Major Australian Pathways

3. Australia’s Reliance on Migrant Professionals: By Major Field 2006 Compared to 2001

4. Trend 1: Dominance of Skilled Migration in Permanent Migration (68% of Program by 2012)

5. 2012-13: Permanent Migration Program Annual Targets

6. Trend 2: The Dominance of Temporary Labour Migration (131,341 Temporary Employer-Sponsored Migrants by 2011-12) By 2009: 70% of all permanent and temporary labour migrants sponsored Attractions! Demand-driven (tap-on tap-off) Employer power to select Speed of processing 99% employment outcomes/ immediate earnings Constrained location (up to 4 years) Uncapped: 2011-12 annual growth = 42% (all fields) Medicine = 17,910 arrivals 2005-06 to 2010-11 (versus 2,910 permanent skilled migrants) 4/5 in 457 category: Area of need (etc) Growth: 34,000 (around 6 years back) to 125,070 2011-12

7. Trend 3: Growth in Two-Step Migration – Place of Selection 2011-12 (Permanent Skilled Migrants)

8. Permanent Skilled Migrants: Changing Place of Selection by Select Field 2008-09: Engineers: 82% selected on-shore Accountants: 68% IT professionals: 47% Nurses: 33% By 2012: Nurses: 9/10 skilled migrant applicants qualified or applying on-shore

9. Trend 4: Impact of Employer-Sponsorship on Source Country (Temporary Labour Migrants) 2011-12

10. Compared to Top 10 Permanent Migrant Source Countries: 2011-12

11. Trend 5: Introduction of Priority Processing (2010+) Rank order for processing: 1. Employers 2. State/ Territory nomination 3. Independent applicants with an occupation on the Skilled Occupation List 4. Other Independent applications (3 years + ‘if ever’)

12. Trend 6: Merging Temporary and Permanent Skilled Migration Processes Influence of the New Zealand model: 2004+: Transformed Selection = 80-88% onshore (employed or with job offer) Australian developments: July 2011 new points test - Favours advanced English, higher degrees, employment experience, in-demand fields) Reduced: ‘Independent’ skilled migration + Occupational ceiling ‘cap’ SkillSelect – Entrenches 2-step migration (virtual ‘trawling’ x 2 years) Immediate vs subsequent offers - Once eligible for selection)

13. Trend 7: Priority Occupations, English Standards and Skilled Migration 2010+ 1. Importance of the Skilled Occupation List: No points but eligibility for priority processing (Independent applicants) 2. Power to impose occupational ‘caps’: For select over-supplied occupations 3. Heightened English language requirements: Select over-supplied fields (eg IELTS 7 required for accounting) 4. English language standards (all regulated fields): No points for IELTS 6 but required to be eligible for selection BUT higher levels if required by regulatory bodies (eg nursing, teaching, medicine, law)

14. Crafting Australia’s Study-Migration Pathway 1999-2007: International Students as a Priority Talent Resource Higher Education Enrolments by 2008

15. The Study-Migration Pathway (2004): Following 1999 Introduction

16. Employment Outcomes by 2006: Skilled Category Employment Outcomes @ 6 Months

17. Potential Value of the Study-Migration Pathway: ‘Designer Immigrants’? Attributes: Young Self-funded education Length of future productivity Host country language skills Acculturation Domestic qualifications Australia’s international student policy evolution: 1999: Immediate eligibility to migrate (supported by bonus points) 2005: 99% chance of skilled migration selection (unless failing health/ character checks) 2007-12: Study-migration pathway fine-tuned – greater focus on English skills and tertiary degrees 2012+: Degree-qualified students guaranteed up to 4 year work visas on completion of studies

18. 2006 Skilled Migration Review Findings: Employment Outcomes @ 6 Months by 2006 Permanent outcomes @ 6 months: 87% employed or self-employed 70% working in their preferred occupation Markedly improved salary levels 93% satisfied with their migration and settlement Temporary labour migrants @ 6 months: 99% employed in their field Encouraged to transit to permanent migration

19. BUT Former International Students: Employment and Wage Outcomes @ 6 Months Former students: Annual salaries of around $33,000 (compared to $52,500 for offshore arrivals); Average weekly earnings of $641 (compared to $1,015); Lower job satisfaction, with 44 per cent liking their work (compared to 57 per cent); and Far less ‘often’ use of formal qualifications in current work (46 per cent compared to 63 per cent) Baird Review/ MODL Review/ Points Test Review…. Source: B Birrell, L Hawthorne & S Richardson (2006), Evaluation of the General Skilled Migration Categories, Commonwealth of Australia, Canberra

20. The Problem of Demand by Field: Growth in New International Student Enrolments 2002-2008, by Sector

21. ‘The Pragmatists’ – Indian Students by Education Sector (2002 to 2008) Indian student enrolment growth: 65,377 (June 2008) cf 93,387 (China) February 2009: Overtake China Proportion migrating: 66-73% (cf China) Universities of choice: Lowest ranking Sector of enrolment – dramatic shift to vocational training: 2002: 1,827 in VET sector (compared to 6,575 in degrees) June 2008: 36,045 in VET sector compared to 21,111 in degrees China = 18,808 in VET sector compared to 41,812 in degrees Course skewing: Hospitality/ hairdressing…. ‘trades’ Case study: Electrical linesmen to chefs

22. Policy Transition 2006+: Fine-Tuning Australia’s Study- Migration Pathway to ‘Enhance’ International Students

23. By 2012 515,853 International Student Enrolments in Australian Courses (All Sectors) - Compared to 630,000 in 2010 Nationality 2012 Enrolments % of Total Growth on 2011 China (38% migrate by 2005)149,75829%-6% India (66% migrate by 2005)54,39611%-25% Republic of Korea27,7195%-7% Vietnam22,5514%-4% Malaysia21,5874%-5% Thailand20,2404%-6% Indonesia17,5143%-2% Brazil15,0923%-1% Nepal14,0743%-20% Pakistan11,2982%+18% Other nationalities161,62431%-2% TOTAL515,853100%-7%

24. Australian Government 2011 + Tightening the Study-Migration Pathway Introduction of changed selection system: July 2011 Key changes/ policy impacts: Occupation: No points (but hurdle requirement) Caps: in oversupplied fields English – No points for IELTS 6 (hurdle requirement)/ bonus points for near native-speaker levels (IELTS 8 = 20 bonus points) Age range – Extended/ points favour applicants with experience Place of qualification – Minimal advantage now for Australian qualifications Level of qualification – PhD and Masters rewarded, wherever gained! Experience: Australian and overseas experience valued/ rewarded (slight premium for Australian experience)

25. Employment Outcomes @ 4 Months: International Students Qualified in Australia (2007-11) International Students as a Skilled Migration Resource – The Australian Experience 1999 to 2012 (forthcoming), L Hawthorne & A To (University of Melbourne) Graduate Destination Survey data 2007-2011: International students: 79,046 Domestic students: 371,951 11 fields: Sustained demand: Medicine, dentistry, nursing, pharmacy, physiotherapy Over-supply: IT, accounting, business & commerce Highly variable demand: Engineering Modest demand: Education, law Employment outcomes: Compared by field, qualification level, language background, source country, wage

26. Former International Students: Variable Full-Time Employment Rates 6 Months After Bachelor Degree Completion by Field Compared to Domestic Students (Hawthorne & To 2013) Qualification FieldAustralian Graduates (Sample = 371,000) International Students (Sample = 79,000) Accounting83%35% Business76%40% IT78%42% Engineering86%44% Medicine100%99% Dentistry94%96% Pharmacy98%96% Physiotherapy94%67% Nursing92%71%

27. International Students Employment Outcomes: Numbers Compared to Australian Bachelor Graduates Accounting: 35.2 per cent compared to 82.7 per cent 7,751 IS seeking employment (compared to 2,852 domestic graduates) Information technology: 42.3 per cent compared to 78.0 per cent 4,554 IS seeking employment (compared to 2,210) Engineering: 43.6 per cent compared to 86.4 per cent 1,236 IS seeking employment (compared to 1,341)

28. Compared to Masters Degrees: Full-Time Employment Outcomes by Select Source Country (IS) Select Asia All Fields: China – 32% India – 45% Malaysia – 45% Indonesia – 36% Accounting: China – 29% India – 47% Malaysia – 43% Indonesia – 35% Canada/ USA + All Fields: Canada/USA – 71% Accounting: Canada/USA – N/A

29. Maximising Study-Migration Options: Prioritising PhD Qualifications Full-time employment at 4 months for international compared to domestic students with PhD qualifications: 1.Medicine: 78.4% of international students (93.0%) 2.Dentistry: 66.7% (93.2%) 3.Pharmacy: 64.3% (87.0%) 4.Business and commerce: 68.5% (89.5%) 5.Accounting: 70.0% (97.0%) 6.Information technology: 78.4% (79.9%) 7.Engineering: 81.4% (87.9%) 8.Education: 70.5% (90.7%) 9.Law: 80.0% (89.3%)

30. PhD Degrees: Full-Time Employment Outcomes by Select Source Country (IS) Select Asia All Fields: China – 69% India – 67% Malaysia – 75% Indonesia – N/A Accounting: China – 72% India – 83% Malaysia – 92% Indonesia – 100% Canada/ USA + All Fields: Canada/USA – 79% Accounting: Canada/USA – N/A

31. Which Skilled Migrants to Prioritise? Employment Outcomes for Skilled Migrants 2009-2011 @ 6 Months (Immigration CSAM Data): 4 Years Stay Post-Study Allowed Students Visa Reporting Category Skilled Job Other Job Not Working Working Full-time Particip. Rate Unemploy.Median Full-time Earnings 6 MonthsJob($'000) Employer Sponsored 907392980.571.3 Family/State Sponsored 603197298750.0 Offshore Independent 7512 76971074.6 Onshore Independent 553786998644.4 Skilled Graduates 583656598340.0 Other Skilled4733206186743.0 All Skilled682487596552.0