1. Brazil: Model or Meltdown? Max Cameron Poli 332 March 31, 2016

2. Historical Periods Colonial period Late onset of oligarchic republic Populism and fragile democracy BA state Redemocratization Left turn

3. Structure

4. Process

5. Colonial Period Differences with the rest of the region: – Portugal less developed than Spain – Slavery a dominant institution, not abolished until 1888 – Little emphasis on education – No printing press in Brazil

6. Independence Process No period of anarchy, colony replaced by monarchy (Dom Pedro I & II, 1821-1891) Constitution of 1891: Brazil becomes a republic and oligarchic democracy Oligarchy based on most powerful states: Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais – Coronelismo

7. Populism under Getulio Vargas, (1930- 1945, 1951-1954) Vargas takes power after an armed rebellion and coup in 1929-30. Introduces Estado Novo. Constitution of 1934 – Federal structure – Free elections – Judicial independence – Welfare – Labour code Elections suspended in 1938, Vargas’ rule continues Removed by military in 1945, elected again in 1950 1954 commits suicide

8. BA State (1964-1985) Coup in 1964 after period of fragile democracy (Kubitschek, 1956-61; Goulart, 1961-64) Minor guerrilla threat BA State – Relatively lower level of repression, maintained elections at state and local levels – Crisis of ISI during military rule, pursues deepening of ISI

9. Redemocratization (1985- Military regime begins to unravel in late 1970s Rising public pressure Tancredo Neves elected 1985, died and was replaced by Jose Sarney (1985-89) Constitution of 1989 – Congress served as constitutional assembly – Features of the constitution

10. Left Turn Neoliberal period brief (Collor, 1989-92, Franco, 1992-95, FH Cardoso 1995-2003) Mild left turn: Lula of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (Workers’ Party or PT) elected 2002, governs until 2010; Dilma Rousseff 2010 – present Participatory innovations: – Participatory budgeting (starts in Porto Alegre) – CCT program Bolsa Familia – Policy Conferences “Lava Jato” scandal and backlash

11. Lessons Little anarchy, mild repression: pattern of accommodation and bargaining, persistence of democracy at state and local levels Gradualism: abolition, late onset of republic, late democratization, gradual re- democratization, mild left turn Size: ISI and diversification Major challenge: corruption and a weak state