1. A proposition on Seasonal Prediction of TC Activity over western North Pacific H. Joe Kwon Kongju National University, KOREA

2. K ongju N ational U niversity

3. TC activity Prediction for 2005 PredictionClimatologyObservation May - Dec 19 – 32 (22.7) 25.120 Sep - Nov 9 – 11 (9.7) 11.59 KMA’s seasonal forecast (2/3)

4. K ongju N ational U niversity TC activity Prediction for Sep-Nov 2004 PredictionClimatologyObservation WNP (Sep-Nov) 9 - 12 (10.1) 11.59 Korea (Sep-Nov) 1 - 2 (1.4) 0.91 KMA’s seasonal forecast (3/3)

5. K ongju N ational U niversity KMA/CPD issues seasonal(JJA, SON) outlook for temp/precip and TC activity.  Number of TCs over western North Pacific, affecting Korea. Joint Meeting for seasonal forecast (CN-JP-KR) University contribution - Hongkong (Prof. Chan): Statistical model - Kongju (Prof. Kwon): Statistical model & Dynamic model ensemble APCC(APEC Climate Center)  Seasonal prediction of TC may be one of the important components. IRI  Seasonal forecast for WNP and ATL ECMWF  TC genesis over the whole basin (coupled global model) Activities over western North Pacific for Seasonal forecast of TC

6. K ongju N ational U niversity Hurricane outlook of NHC, USA Probability forecast Number of TC genesis & ACE Category forecast

7. K ongju N ational U niversity ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) = ACE

8. K ongju N ational U niversity Definition of hurricane season of NHC

9. K ongju N ational U niversity Typhoon genesis over the western N. Pacific 16 39

10. K ongju N ational U niversity 23.7 28.7 Accumulated distribution of AN,NN,BN based on 1951-2004 tropical cyclone activities Classification by annual total of tropical cyclones(1/2)

11. K ongju N ational U niversity Below Normal Near Normal Above Normal 23.7 28.7 Classification of AN, NN, BN based on 1951-2004 tropical cyclone activities Classification by annual total of tropical cyclones(2/2)

12. K ongju N ational U niversity Example of 2 different tropical cyclones

13. K ongju N ational U niversity NTA (Normalized Typhoon Activity) Index = = 6-hourly maximum sustained wind speed V TY = 64 kt NTA = 1 means that a tropical cyclone of TY strength exists for 1 day ▶ ▶ Classification by NTA, annual total of tropical cyclones and TY genesis number Comprehensive Typhoon Activity Index based upon frequency, duration and intensity frequency, duration and intensity

14. K ongju N ational U niversity NTA = 0.3 NTA = 17,4

15. K ongju N ational U niversity AN NN BN Classification by NTA, annual total of tropical cyclones and TY genesis number NTA 128.1

16. K ongju N ational U niversity ClassificationNTA Annual Total of Tropical Cyclone TY AN152 or higher30 or higher17 or higher NN118 ~ 15225 ~ 2914 ~ 16 BN118 or lower24 or lower13 or lower Classification by NTA, annual total of tropical cyclones and TY genesis number

17. K ongju N ational U niversity Classification by NTA, annual total of tropical cyclones and TY genesis number NTA nTC nTY 24 29 AN NN BN 118 152 13 17 NTA nTC nTY 24 29 118 152 13 17 NTA nTC nTY 24 29 118 152 13 17 24 29 118 152 13 17 24 29 118 152 13 17 24 29 118 152 13 17 24 29 118 152 13 17 24 29 118 152 13 17 24 29 118 152 13 17 nTC means annual total number of tropical cyclone nTC means annual total number of tropical cyclone nTY means number above TY grade nTY means number above TY grade

18. K ongju N ational U niversity YEARNTATS(12)TY(15)SUMClassification 196822242327AN 1997198111728AN 2004194101929AN 1967192211839AN 1994191171936AN 1991190121729AN 1992188151631AN 1972185121931AN 1971181162036AN 198218171825AN 198717461723AN 1986171111829AN 1958168151631AN 1962166121830AN 1976162111425AN 1990162101929AN 2002156111526AN 195715371522NN 1989150122032AN 195314491423NN 1963143101424NN 1979142111324NN 1965140181432NN 197813715 30NN 195413571421NN 195913471623NN 1996133111526NN 197013313 26NN 1960129131427NN 1984129111627NN 1966128181735AN 198012591524NN 200312571421NN 1951120111021BN 1981119161329NN 1952118131427NN 1961118161329NN 196911751419BN 2001116101626BN 1985115111627BN 1993115131528BN 1974113171532BN 1964112201434NN 1983106131023BN 1988104201131BN 200099101323BN 195697111223BN 195596171128BN 197795101121BN 19758681321BN 19958114923BN 197372101121BN 1998558816BN 19994517522BN Classification by NTA, annual total of tropical cyclones and TY genesis number Y=1968, NTA=222, TC=27, TY=23 Y=2004, NTA=194, TC=29, TY=19 Y=1964, NTA=112, TC=34, TY=14 Y=1987, NTA=174, TC=23, TY=17

19. K ongju N ational U niversity NN ⇒ AN A Few Example NN ⇒ AN

20. K ongju N ational U niversity A Few Example AN ⇒ NN BN ⇒ AN

21. K ongju N ational U niversity Summary Definition for Normal, Above Normal, Below Normal range of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific Proposition # 1 Proposition # 2 Things to be predicted - NTA index, No of Total TC, No of Typhoon

22. K ongju N ational U niversity ? - June SST, MSLP, Z500,... ? - June SST, MSLP, Z500,... Selection of Predictors 1952 2002 2003 ? - June SST, MSLP, Z500,... ? - June SST, MSLP, Z500,... ? - June SST, MSLP, Z500,... ? - June SST, MSLP, Z500,... 1952 2002 2003 Lag Correlation?

23. K ongju N ational U niversity MSLP-12 0.421 160E 22.5N SST+4 0.393 166W 16N Example of lag correlation between SON TCs and synoptic variables A priori assumption: (1) stronger correlation between NTA and synoptic variables (2) better prediction of NTA

24. K ongju N ational U niversity International/Inter-organizational collaborations are highly recommended. - Joint meeting for seasonal forecast (CN-JP-KR) - APCC - IRI - Kongju University, Hongkong University Proposition # 3 Any Contributions Welcome!

25. Thank you!