1. Interactive Analyst Briefing
Strategic Analysis of the Active and Passive Safety Systems Market in Europe
Thank you xxxx
Good afternoon ladies and gentleman, and thank you for attending this Interactive Analyst briefing.
For those of you joining us on the web, you have the opportunity to ask me questions during the briefing using the online Q&A facility on your screen. On the left-hand side of your screen, you will see a Q&A tab. Click on this and then to actually ask a question, click on the “Ask a question tab.”
Please feel free to submit any questions during my talk, and I will then endeavour to answer them fully at the end of the presentation.
Interactive Analyst Briefing
Anil Valsan
10th March 2004
© 2003 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.

2. Copyright 2004 Frost & Sullivan Confidential
Today’s Presentation
Market Overview
Total European Market for Active and Passive Safety Systems
Total Market For Active Safety Systems
Total Market For Passive Safety Systems
Key Market Challenges
Strategic Implications for Key Market Participants
Report Highlights
Questions
I will begin my presentation by giving you a brief overview of the findings of my study. I will then present to you a roadmap that we have developed for the total market for vehicle safety systems in Europe. This will be followed by an outline of the market for active systems, and then passive safety systems. This outline will include a look at some of the roadmaps we have developed to capture the evolution of different technologies, as well as forecasts to highlight the demand for these products. I will then highlight some of the key challenges that the vehicle manufacturers and suppliers will face. I will finally close my presentation by talking about some of the implications that the trends in the vehicle safety market will have and also highlighting the key contents in the report.
As I mentioned before, please feel free to interrupt me with any questions that you may have.
Copyright 2004 Frost & Sullivan Confidential

3. Total Revenues (Europe)
Market Overview
Total Revenues (Europe)
Total market to grow from 5.7 billion Euros in 2003 to over 6.6 billion Euros by 2010.
Overall growth is expected to be driven by penetration of existing and introduction of new active safety features.
Competitive pressures on the cost is expected to dampen the overall revenue growth
Active safety revenues to be driven by ABS and ESP
Passive safety revenue growth to be driven by curtain and side airbags
I estimate that the total market for vehicle safety systems is expected to generate over 6.6 billion Euros by Although the total revenues is roughly split almost evenly between active and passive safety systems, the total growth is expected to be driven by active systems - particularly ABS and ESP. The market for passive safety systems is expected to witness only marginal growth owing to the high penetration of features such as front airbags and seatbelts. The actual growth in this market is expected to be driven by the penetration of curtain airbags and side front airbags.
Overall, this decade is expected to witness a significant shift in vehicle manufacturers’ focus in terms of vehicle safety from passive to active safety systems.
The next slide details the roadmap for vehicle safety systems in Europe.
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4. Total Safety Systems Roadmap
Normal Driving
Veh. Stat. Monitoring - Seat belt, TPMS, Diagnostics
ACC
ACC with Stop & Go
LDW
LKS
DDW
Emergency
BSD
LCA
Vehicle Stability Systems
Strg. Brkg Integr.
EBA
Collision Warning
Pre-Crash
Advanced Seats and Seatbelt Systems
Occupant Classification Systems
SB, FA, SA, CA
Intelligent Seatbelts and Airbags
In-Crash
My research has established that vehicle manufacturers are keen to build in safety as a part of the whole driving process and experience, rather than make it stand out as distinct features. As a result, I have attempted to capture the evolution of vehicle safety in terms of what different systems will be active during the different phases of driving. Looking at the chart, the vertical axis denotes the different phases of driving and the horizontal axis indicates time. Different colours are used to highlight the different types of systems that will be used.
As you can see from the chart, while active safety systems support the driver during the normal driving, emergency and even the pre-crash phase, the passive safety systems take over once the crash becomes inevitable.
In addition, what you will also notice is that while most of the active safety systems are yet to be introduced in Europe, almost all the passive safety systems are already available today. If you look at passive safety systems, the objective today is to improve their efficiency with systems for not only protecting the occupants, but also pedestrians - with pedestrian protection systems - and partner vehicles - by improving the crash compatibility.
What is also to be noted is that, over this decade, there will be greater integration of active and passive systems. For instance, companies are already working on solutions whereby, curtain airbags will be triggered when the vehicle’s stability system detects the inevitability of a rollover.
We will now look at the market for active and passive safety systems individually.
Pedestrian Protection Systems
Crash Zones
Compatibility
Post-Crash
Automatic Crash Notification System
2004
2007
2010
Legend
Driver Warning
Collision Avoidance
Veh. Stab. Sys.
Passive Systems
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5. Total Market for Active Safety Systems
Driver Warning and
Information Systems
Seatbelt Warning Systems Tire
Pressure Monitoring Systems
Blind Spot Detection
Driver Drowsiness Warning
Lane Deviation Warning
Speed Recognition / warning
Intelligent Speed Adaptation (ISA)
Collision Warning System
Lane Change Assistant
Vehicle Diagnostics
Traffic Sign Recognition
Vehicle Stability Systems
Anti-lock Braking System (ABS)
Traction Control (ASR)
Electronic Stability Control
Emergency Brake Assistance
Active Steering
Collision Avoidance Systems
Adaptive Cruise control
Lane Keeping System
Lane Change Assistant
For the purpose of this report, I have grouped the various active safety features based on their functionality into three broad categories, as illustrated in the chart on this slide.
What is important to note is that while today each of these categories do not interact with each other significantly, in the future, there will be greater integration and communication across the different categories to improve the functionality and efficiency of each active safety feature.
In the following slides we will briefly look at the roadmaps for each of these categories.
Market Size billion Euros
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6. Roadmap - Vehicle Stability Systems
Braking
Steering
Suspension
ESC-Strg-Susp
ESC + Steering
Lat. & vert. Stab.
ESC + ACC S & G
ESC + Vert. Stab.
ESC
integration of braking, steering and suspension
TCS / ASR
EBA
On this slide you see two roadmaps. I will first deal with the roadmap for vehicle stability systems.
As you would know, the function of vehicle stability systems is to monitor any potential instability in either the longitudinal, lateral or vertical axis, and correct it. The vertical axis illustrates the directions of instability namely longitudinal, lateral and vertical, that have to be addressed by a vehicle stability system. The development of the ABS has been the basis for developing more advanced stability systems. What is interesting to note is that current stability systems primarily use only the braking systems of the vehicle. However, for the future we will see the progressive integration of the steering, braking and suspension functions in the vehicle to create a more efficient stability system.
Moving to the next roadmap. The function of driver warning and information systems is to monitor the vehicle, its immediate surroundings, and the driver, and then provide feedback to the driver. For these systems, the method of providing feedback is critical, and it can be through haptic, audio or visual methods. For example a lane deviation warning system may provide feedback by generating a rumbling sound to alert the driver. These products are currently in an advanced stage of development and we expect these products to be introduced in the next 2 to 3 years. We will first see the introduction of blind spot detection and lane deviation warning systems around These will form the basis for lane change assistance and lane keeping systems.
Long. Stab.
ABS
Pre-2001
2004
2007
2010
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7. Roadmap - Driver Warning and Information Systems
Driver Status
DDW
Driver Warning & Information System
LDW
ISA
Speed Recog. / Warn
Vehicle Vicinity Status
Tr. Sign Recg.
CWS
LCA
BSD
Reactive Vehicle Diagnostics
Proactive Diag.
Vehicle Status
Indirect / Direct TPMS
Direct TPMS
Seatbelt Warning
Pre-2001
2004
2007
2010
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8. Active Safety Systems - Revenue Forecast
Before going into collision avoidance systems, I would like to highlight the importance of obstacle sensing technologies here as these will be the “eyes” of the vehicle, that will monitor its immediate vicinity.
The function of collision avoidance systems is to detect the possibility of a collision and take corrective action either by supporting the driver, or autonomously. The only system that has a certain level of this functionality is the ACC system. The next two years is expected to witness further generations of the ACC system to be introduced, particularly with the stop and functionality. In addition, we also expect lidar-based systems to be available for lower vehicle segments.
However, we do not expect advanced systems, such as assistance for driving in rural and urban roads, to be available in Europe before the end of this decade.
Moving on to the forecasts.
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9. Active Safety Systems - Market Share Extract
Electronic Stability Control System
Adaptive Cruise Control
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10. Types of Safety Systems - Passive Safety
Occupant protection
Compatibility
Pedestrian Protection
Airbags
Seatbelts
Occupant Class. Systems
Pedestrian Airbag
Hood Lifting
Driver
Reversible pretensioner
Weight-based
Front Passenger
With Pretensioning
Ultrasonic / Radar / Infra-red
Front Side
With load-limiters
Video-based
Rear Side
Static Belts
Curtain
Anti-Submarining
Knee
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11. Passive Safety Systems - Roadmap
Revenues to grow from 2.8 billion Euros in 2003, to over 3.0 billion Euros by 2010*
Revenues for front airbags and seatbelts expected to decline.
Front airbags and seatbelts price decline to slow down due to advancement in technologies
Curtain airbags penetration expected to grow from around one-third today to over two-thirds by 2010
Pedestrian safety impact on vehicle design -
Front bumper area redesign
Depth under the bonnet - hood lifting or pedestrian airbags
Corner points for compatibility -
Managing structural interaction between vehicles
Managing force levels
Ensuring compartment integrity
curtain airbag revenues to grow by 7.2 percent
* Excludes anti-submarining, knee and foot airbags, and Occupant Classification Systems
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12. Passive Safety Systems - Revenue Forecasts
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13. Passive Safety Systems - Market Share Extract
Front Airbags
Seatbelts
Report includes market shares for side and curtain airbags also
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14. Passive Safety Systems
Key Market Challenges
Active Safety Systems
Passive Safety Systems
High cost of the feature restricts introduction to niche segments.
Customer awareness of the safety benefits not consistent across Europe.
Collision avoidance systems dependent on obstacle detection technologies.
Absence of a legislation setting out obligation of vehicle manufacturer in the event of system failure.
Need to satisfy EURO NCAP crash tests.
High level of performance with a negligible or nil failure rate.
Durability in terms of time.
New vehicle buyers less willing to pay for safety features.
The customer preferences for safety systems vary across different countries in Europe.
Currently there are no standards for the way in which information can be given to the driver through audio, visual or haptic interface. Frost & Sullivan expects the short and medium term to witness diverse solutions being used by vehicle manufacturers for this purpose. However, the long term (close to 2010 and beyond) is likely to see a convergence owing to the activities of the eSafety working group on Human Machine Interface (HMI).
High volume vehicle manufacturers particularly those present in the high-volume segments, have felt that structural solutions to protect occupants from impact have achieved higher scores in EURO NCAP than electronic solutions such as occupant detection systems, and variable stage airbags. In addition, while manufacturers agree that future refinement in occupant protection systems will be through electronics, the additional benefits available will be limited as compared to those available from active safety systems.
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15. Strategic Implications for Key Market Participants
Advantage of being first to market with safety solutions fast diminishing
OEM’s adopt multiple-sourcing strategies, limited suppliers for products, strong competition and hence price pressure
Cost competitiveness key to new business and hence market share -
Sharing of resources (sensors and ECUs) across multiple applications
Reduction in manufacturing costs by shifting to low-cost locations
Active safety systems drive volume and revenue growth
Vehicle stability systems in growth phase of lifecycle,
Collision avoidance and DWIS in development phase
Passive safety will have commodity-type products
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16. Copyright 2004 Frost & Sullivan Confidential
Report Highlights
Report structure -
Total Safety Systems
Active Safety Systems
Passive Safety Systems
Vehicle Manufacturers’ Profiles and Activities
Safety System Suppliers’ Profiles and Activities
Identifies Market, Technology and Legislative Trends affecting the Safety Systems market
Significant value added content in each chapter -
Qualitative analysis -
Roadmaps for all safety systems
Philosophies for VMs and Tier 1s
Strategies for VMs and Tier 1s
Quantitative analysis -
Trends in units, revenues, prices
penetration rates by vehicle segments, vehicle manufacturers (active systems)
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