1. Rising Stakes in the Exploitation and Management of Africa’s Natural Resources 16-17 October 2006 Misty Hills, Muldersdrift Presented at a Conference on China in Africa in the 21 st Century: Preparing for the Forum on China- Africa Cooperation by John Rocha, Senior Analyst at SaferAfrica

2. Overview of Presentation 1.Background and context 2.Current status, trends and outlook 3.Major Challenges 4.Areas of cooperation

3. 1. Background and context History of violent conflicts over access to/ control of natural resources Paradox of poverty and underdevelopment in the midst of immense natural wealth New African vision: growth and renewal, underpinned by human security framework

4. 2. Current status, trends and outlook Overview of China –158 minerals with identified resources and reserves in 2004 (10 energy minerals, 54 metallic minerals and 91 non-metallic) –Of the 45 varieties of minerals in China only 24 will be able to meet domestic demand by 2010 and only 6 by 2020. Source: Chinese Ministry of Land and Natural Resources

5. China domestic production vs demand Commodity20102020 Crude oil51-55%34-40% Iron38%29% Coal250million/t shortfall 700million/t shortfall 2. Current status, trends and outlook…

6. Africa’s mineral reserves vs world CommodityAfricaWorld%Africa vs world Platinum (PGM) t63 00071 00089 Diamonds (millions of carat 35058060 Cobalt (t)3 690 0007 000 00053 Zirconium (t)143837 Gold10 05935 94128 Vanadium3 000 00013 000 00023 Uranium6564 41615 2. Current status, trends and outlook…

7. Chinese footprints in Africa Oil: Algeria, Angola, Chad, Sudan and increasing stakes in Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Nigeria. Exploration ongoing in other countries such as Kenya etc. Minerals: DRC (cobalt), Zambia (copper primarily), Gabon (iron ore) Other minerals are also being exploited by Chinese companies China also sources over 20 per cent of its log imports from Africa 2. Current status, trends and outlook…

8. 2. Current status, trends and outlook: global dimension

10. Projected oil demand Global oil demand: 12m b/d to 89mb/d from 2002 to 2010 (annual growth rate of 1,5mb/d or 1,8% per annum) The next decade: 17mb/d to 106mb/d by 2020 and then to 115mb/d by 2025 ¾ of increase in demand from developing countries Source: OPEC-Oil Outlook to 2025 2. Current status, trends and outlook: global dimension

11. 3. Major Challenges Managing diverse interests and competition for access Conducive environment for peace, security, stability and sustainable development Maximize and optimize resources Peak Oil and resource depletion

12. 4. Areas for China-Africa cooperation on natural resources Stock levels, including issues of local demand vs international Technical and technological know how, including R&D Value addition/beneficiation/upward- downstream/linkages with the economy. Mining enclaves? Information and knowledge management: geological (including reliability) and other Explore alternative uses