1. Sea Level Rise Model Geo-enabled by FGDC Digital Data Chincoteague NWR, Virginia

2. 2 Sea Level Rise NOT a new phenomenon –Seas have risen 100 m over last 18,000 years Tide gauge data shows recent local and global trends Rate of global sea level rise increased 10-fold between 19 th and 20 th centuries –From 0.1 - 0.2 mm/yr to 1 - 2 mm/yr Glacier Bay, Alaska Photo: Gerald Brimacombe

3. 3 IPCC Projections By 2100, the sea will rise 9 to 88 cm –Median rate of projected sea level rise, 4.8 mm/yr, is 2 to 4 times the current rate Source: IPCC

4. 4 Salt Marsh Zonation MHHW - Mean High High Water MHW - Mean High Water MSL - Mean Sea Level MLW - Mean Low Water Low Marsh: Spartina alterniflora High Marsh: Spartina patens, Distichlis spicata Mudflat Open Water Low Marsh High Marsh Adjacent Zone MHHW MHW MSL MLW

5. 5 Local Variability Factors influencing relative rates of sea level rise: Changes in Ocean Volume –Glacial melt –Expansion of water due to increased ocean temperatures Adjustments in Land Stability –Active tectonics –Isostatic adjustment Geomorphology, atmospheric pressure and ocean currents

6. 6 Critical Local Influences Accretion is the buildup of organic and inorganic matter on the marsh surface Freshwater inflow Sediment and Organic DepositionSubstrate Buildup

7. 7 Long-term Tide Gauge Trends Galveston, TX: 6.5 mm/yr New York, NY: 2.77 mm/yr Baltimore, MD: 3.12 mm/yr Key West, FL: 2.7 mm/yr San Francisco, CA: 2.13 mm/yr Sitka, AK: -2.17 mm/yr

8. 8 Sea Level Affecting Marsh Model (SLAMM) Developed in mid-1980s by Dr. Richard Park Next generation developer Dr. Jonathon Clough EPA funded development Congressional testimony based on SLAMM

9. 9 Four Primary Processes Modeled Inundation Erosion Overwash Saturation

10. 10 Framework of Model 30 by 30 meter cells based on NOAA tidal data

11. 11 Data Download from Internet Digital Elevation Model and LIDAR National Wetlands Inventory Wetlands Dike Data from NWI Land Cover from MRLC

12. 12 SLAMM Grid Cell Categories UplandU SwampPFO1, PFO, and PSS with K- U tidal modifiers Cypress SwampPFO2 Inland Fresh MarshL2EM, PEM 1& 2, R2EM Salt MarshE2EM, E2EM1P MangroveE2FO3, E2SS3 Mud FlatE2US 3 or 4, E2USM, E2FL Ocean BeachM2US2 Tidal CreekE2SB

13. 13 Wetland Types Integrated Tidal Regime Degree and or duration of flooding Water salinity Freshwater inflow (accretion)

14. 14 SLAMM Enabled by FGDC Agencies EPA FWS NOAA USGS MRLC Consortium

15. 15 Coastal Refuges Refuge System –1.1 million acres of coastal wetlands in the Lower 48 –Critical habitat for endangered and threatened species 159 Coastal Refuges –159 out of 545 total refuges –152 Tidally influenced Monomoy NWR, MA Humboldt Bay NWR, OR

16. 16 Source: MPA Center: Marine Managed Areas Inventory 159 Coastal Refuges

17. 17 Salt Marsh Why Salt marshes? –Valuable –Vulnerable –5% of wetlands in contiguous U.S. Characteristics –Variable salinity –Sheltered from waves –Dominated by cordgrass (Spartina spp.) E.B. Forsythe NWR, NJ

18. 18 CONTEXT: Coastal Elevation Map Description Provides submergence risk Input Appropriate elevation data Output Map of low lying coastal areas Applicability Any coastal refuge New Jersey Atlantic Ocean

19. 19 Impact on Bird Species Potential “Losers” (high marsh) Forster's Tern American Bittern American Black Ducks Black Rail Gull-billed Tern Marsh Wren Nelson's Sharptailed Sparrow Saltmarsh Sharptailed Sparrow Seaside Sparrow Whimbrel White Ibis Yellow Rail Potential “Winners” (low marsh) American Oystercatcher Clapper Rail Forster's Tern Marsh Wren Reddish Egret Whimbrel

20. 20 Description GIS spatial model Many variables Upgrades available Applicability All types of coastal wetlands Requires advanced GIS skills Output Map of wetland zones SLAMM Barrier Island Galveston, Texas Aerial view

21. 21 1992

22. 22 2025

23. 23 2050

24. 24 2100

25. 25 Questions