1. South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5) (Pune, India, 14-21 April 2014) Country Presentation-Maldives Zahid Director Climatology Maldives Meteorological Service zahid@met.gov.mv; zahidhameed@gmail.com

2. Overview of Maldives Meteorological observation network Rainfall climatology Temperature climatology Seasonal forecast Outline

3. Overview of Maldives

4. The Maldives Maldives is located in the Indian ocean Closest neighbours are India ( 600 km to the North ) and Sri Lanka (670 km to the Northeast) Maldives consists of about 1,192 coral islands.

5. The Maldives… These 1192 islands form 26 naturals atolls and stretches around 80km in width and 130km at its widest point.

6. The Maldives… 99% of Maldives is sea area and 1 % land area. 5% of land area is beach

7. The Maldives… Total land area of Maldives is about 235 sqkm, which makes Maldives 6th smallest state Capital City-Male’ Male’: 1.8km in length 1km in width

8. The Maldives… ● The highest land area is about 3m above mean sea level

9. 80% of the land area is less than 1m above MSL- Which makes Maldives the one of the most low-lying nation in the World

10. The Maldives Total Population: about 340,000 Among 1192 islands, about 200 islands are inhabited islands

11. Main economic sectors Tourism and Fishing

12. Tourism sector About 100 islands are leased for tourist resorts About 1 million tourists visit every year (3 times higher than Maldives population)

13. ● Provides job opportunities for the communities ● Fish export to various countries Fisheries industry

14. Observation network ● 5 manned aviation & synoptic stations over the country (stretching from about 7° N and 0.5° S): ● Hanimaadhoo ● Hulhule ● Kaadedhoo ● Kadhdhoo ● Gan Hanimaadhoo Gan Hulhule Kaadedhoo Kadhdhoo

15. AWS: 20 Upper air observation :1 Weather RADAR:1 Seismometers:2 Tide gauge:3 Satellite picture receiving system (CMA): 1 Observation network

16. HA. Uligam HDh.Makunudhoo R.Vaadhoo K. Kaashidhoo K. Vabbinfaru K. Male’ Adh. Rangali V.Fulidhoo F.Nilandhoo Dh.Hulhudheli GA.Villingili GDh.Gadhdhoo Gn.Fuahmulaku S.Hulhumeedhoo S.Hithadhoo Sh. Feevak Hawaii HD.Hanimaadhoo Hulhule S.Gan

17. Rainfall Climatology

18. Temporal rainfall variability

19. Rainfall statistics (mm) NorthCentralSouth Average1784.31979.52265.1 Max2240.52711.23185.7 Min1346.51333.31548.8

21. Spatial mean annual rainfall Spatial mean monsoon rainfall (MJJASON total)

22. Seasonal Distribution of rainfall Average Total Seasonal Rainfall SW ( May-Nov)NE ( Jan -Mar )Apr, Dec North1498.696.0184.3 Central1411.0196.0355.9 South1441.4425.0402.7 Average % Seasonal rainfall distribution SW ( May- Nov) NE ( Jan -Mar )Apr, Dec North84%5%10% Central72%10%18% South64%19%18%

23. Extreme rainfall events: rainfall > 50mm Showing decreasing trend (no of days with rainfall threshold value of 50mm decreasing) In all the years and for all the locations at least 2 rainfall events >50mm Indicates both bad and good news!!!

24. Monsoon onset dates

25. Monsoon withdrawal dates

26. Maldives monsoon rainfall and ENSO relationship

27. ENSO and Monsoon rainfall During most of the non-ENSO events, monsoon rainfall over the Maldives and India is out of phase. This suggests that the monsoon rainfalls over the Maldives during non-ENSO events are influenced by different factors from those affecting India during the same events

28. Monsoon rainfall and Snow Cover

30. Surface Air Temperature Climatology

31. Annual average temperature Trend shows that the mean temperature over central Maldives has increased by almost 1 oC over the past 38 years.

32. Surface Air temperature

33. Seasonal Climate Prediction in the Maldives

34. Regression model These significant parameters are used as inputs to stepwise regression to develop a regression model for the prediction of core monsoon season (June-September) rainfall for the Maldives.

35. The regression model is significant at 1% significance level and explains about 76.6% of the variation in Maldives monsoon rainfall, indicating usefulness of the model for the prediction of monsoon rainfall before the monsoon season commences.

36. Rainfall forecast

37. Outlook for 2013 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall over South Asia

38. 2013 Observed monsoon rainfall for Maldives Monsoon season rainfall (mm) Average 1994-20122013% Change 1455.71587.48.3

39. Seasonal Climate Outlook for the 2014 Southwest Monsoon Season

40. Rainfall forecast for 2014 (months): Generated by RIMES Below normal:<-20% Normal: -19 to 19% Above normal: >20%: Percentage Change in Precipitation Forecast (April - September 2014) from normal

41. Hanimaadhoo Gan Hulhule Kaadedhoo Kadhdhoo

42. Rainfall forecast for 2014 (3 months): Generated by RIMES

43. RIMES forecast Forecast Methodology Done based on the ECMWF’s Seasonal forecast products. The spatial resolution of the data is 1˚ x 1˚ Temporal resolution is 7 months (~215 days) accumulated daily. 41 ensemble members. Gridded values are interpolated to selected stations in Maldives. The values are then compared with observed normal (climatology and calculate the % deviation for individual month and three month accumulation)

44. CPT Forecast

45. CPT Forecast predictor information Name of Predictors RegionRainfall 1980-2013 CC MSLP (March) 50-60N, 0-10E JUN_SEPT0.40 V_Wind (JAN+FEB)JUN_SEPT 0.30 SST_V3 (FEB) 2.5-15N, 20-40WJUN_SEPT 0.49 SST_V3 (March) 0-10S, 85-95EJUN_SEPT 0.46

46. SST (Feb) Correlation map and region selected: For CPT Forecast

47. CPT generated correlation

48. Goodness index: 0.478 CPT generated rainfall and observed rainfall (June-Sept)

49. CPT June-September Rainfall Forecast for 2014

50. Forecast Probabilities Map

53. Conclusion RIMES and CPT predicts above normal monsoon rainfall for the Maldives. But WMO lead Centre for LRF multi-model ensemble shows below normal monsoon rainfall for the Maldives Knowing that ENSO influences MMR, and now El Nino is in developing stage, the Maldives monsoon rainfall maybe damped by El Nino. Hence 2014 Monsoon Season (June to September) Rainfall over the Maldives likely to be normal to above normal.

54. Shortage of rainwater

56. Extreme rainfall events

57. Thank you…