1. Solving the Mystery of MPA Performance: linking governance, biodiversity conservation, & poverty Working Draft Mike Mascia, Helen Fox, & Al Lombana WWF Conservation Science Program

2. Overview Background Conceptual framework Research options Moving forward

3. Definitions Marine reserves Marine protected areas Open accessMultiple use (not zoned) Multiple use (zoned) Nonconsumptive use only No human use Source: redrawn from Mascia (2004).

4. Marine Protected Area (MPA) coverage ~4600 MPAs Source: MPA global

5. MPA growth Source: MPA global

6. The MPA debate Proponents –MPAs benefit both fish & fishermen Opponents –MPAs place fish before fishermen Evidence? –Varies –Largely anecdotal –Causality unclear

7. 3 key questions What are the social impacts of MPAs? –Monitoring & evaluation/management effectiveness –Describe outcomes What determines MPA social impacts? –Scientific research –Explain outcomes How should we design MPAs to alleviate poverty? –Conservation policy –Deliver outcomes

8. Fisheries Science (from Ward, Heinemann & Evans 2001)

9. Results Chains

10. Political Theory Social condition Resource use patterns Biological condition MPA governance Contextual variables

11. Decision making arrangements Monitoring & enforcement systems Conflict resolution mechanisms Resource use rights Rules x compliance Resource use patterns Mode of use Timing of use User demographics Location of use Resources used Mortality x habitat MPA governance Biological condition Biomass Population size Diversity Richness Social condition Education Health Empower- ment Wealth Catch x effort Contextual variables Climate change Economic environment Ecosystem type Cultural environment Pollution & sediment’n Demo- graphics Political environment

12. MPA governance Decision-making arrangements –Users participate in decisions-making –Users may self-govern resource use Resource use rights –Resource users defined clearly –Resources defined clearly –User costs-benefits ratio roughly proportional –Use rights linked to local conditions Monitoring and enforcement systems –Monitors assess resource conditions –Monitors assess user behavior –Monitors are or accountable to users –Sanctions for noncompliance likely –Sanctions for noncompliance graduated –Sanctions for noncompliance context-dependent Conflict resolution mechanisms –Conflict resolution mechanisms accessible to users –Conflict resolution mechanisms accessible to officials

13. Social condition Wealth –Income –Material assets –Natural assets –Food security Health –Nutrition –Infant mortality –Childhood stunting Political empowerment –Resource control –Involvement in broader political activities Education –School attendance

14. Research options Survey MPA managers Mgmt. effectiveness meta-analysis Field-based retrospective Field-based prospective cost turn around time precision predictive power Less More

15. Moving forward WWF –Indicator review & framework development –Global lit review of MPA social impacts –Natural experiments to explain MPA performance SCB Social Science Working Group (SSWG) –Online catalog of social science tools –SCB 2007 symposiums workshops short courses –Working paper series –Discussion list

17. Global survey Concept: examine governance-performance links based on collection & analysis of MPA managers’ perceptions –survey specific MPAs/MPA managers –provide constrained-choice responses –use statistical data analysis Pros & Cons rapid, inexpensive, powerful no context, may miss subtleties, possible response bias Example: Bruner, et al. 2001. Effectiveness of parks in protecting tropical biodiversity. Science 291: 125-128.

18. Management Effectiveness meta-analysis Concept: Analyze existing assessments of MPAs for links between governance, biophysical, and socioeconomic indicators –Regional: East Africa –Global: How is your MPA doing? Pros & Cons data from a variety of sites, potentially very useful data quality, data access, indicator quality Example: Halpern, B.S. 2003 The impact of marine reserves: do reserves work and does reserve size matter? Ecological Applications

19. Retrospective field research Concept: measure MPA governance-performance links through field-based reconstruction of historic patterns and trends –construct natural experiments –employ mixed methods –use statistical data analysis Pros & Cons: relatively quick and inexpensive, rigorous, powerful logistically complex, difficult to fund? Example: Cinner, et al. 2005. Conservation and community benefits from traditional coral reef management at Ahus Island, Papua New Guinea. Conservation Biology 19(6): 1714-1723.

20. Field-based prospective: Windows of opportunity Concept: obtain baseline data as MPAs are established, measure changes in social and ecological indicators –“before” data: Primeiras and Segundas, Tun Mustafa –still early: Quirimbas Pros & Cons: most rigorous “proof” of effects, indicator quality control long-term, expensive, low power Example: Apo Island, Philippines

21. Decision making arrangements Monitoring & enforcement systems Conflict resolution mechanisms Resource use rights Mortality x habitat Rules x compliance Resource use patterns Mode of use Timing of use User demographics Location of use Resources used MPA governance Diversity Richness Biomass Population size Biological conditionSocial condition Education Health Empower- ment Wealth Catch x effort Contextual variables Climate change Economic environment Ecosystem type Cultural environment Pollution & sediment’n Demo- graphics Political environment