1. Projected Climate Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Wisconsin’s Urban Areas UWM – School of Freshwater Sciences All Things Water September 14, 2010 David S. Liebl UW-Cooperative Extension, and UW-Engineering Professional Development DNR Photo: WDNR

2. Overview Wisconsin’s Changing climate Expected Impacts How we can adapt

3. Source: IPCC 2007 Recent Warming of the Atmosphere

4. Predicting Climate Change What General Circulation Models (GCMs) tell us Temperature: Warms by 2-6  C (3-10  F) by end of century Precipitation: Less certain and seasonally dependent Steve Vavrus, CCR

5. Mitigation: Governor’s Task Force on Global Warming addressed ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Acting on Climate Change in Wisconsin Adaptation: Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) addresses ways to adapt to consequences of climate change

6. Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) Evaluate potential effects on industry, agriculture, tourism, and other human activities. Develop and recommend adaptation strategies. Mission: Assess and anticipate climate change impacts on specific Wisconsin natural resources, ecosystems and regions. WICCI was created by a partnership of the UW-Madison Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. www.wicci.wisc.edu

7. 1930 2008 WI Cooperative Weather Stations We’ve been measuring temperature and rainfall in Wisconsin since 1870 Understanding our changing climate

8. State average 1.5°F warmer Change in Annual Average Temperature from 1950 to 2006 (from Serbin and Kucharik 2009)

9. Change in the frequency of <0°F nights per year from 1950 to 2006 Change in the frequency of ≥90°F days per year from 1950 to 2006 Decline in extremely cold winter nights, especially in northwest Wisconsin Very little change in hot summer days Extreme Temperature Trends (from Serbin and Kucharik 2009)

10. Increase of up to 4 weeks Change in the Length of the Growing Season In Days from 1950 to 2006 (from Serbin and Kucharik 2009)

11. Statewide 15% increase (but highly variable) Change in Annual Average Precipitation (inches) from 1950 to 2006 (from Serbin and Kucharik 2009)

12. Potter, et al. No reliable data

13. Potter, et al.

14. Earlier arrival of spring in Wisconsin Bird migrationVegetation Geese Arrival: 29 days Baptista first bloom: 18 days Cardinal first song: 22 days Butterfly weed first bloom: 18 days Robin arrival: 9 days Marsh milkweed first bloom: 13 days Source: Bradley et al., 1999 55 ecological indicators of spring occurred (on average) 1.2 days earlier per decade from 1936 to 1998. So…we live in a changing climate What will the future bring?

15. Using Climate Models to Understand the Future IPCC 2007 General Circulation Models (GCMs) simulate the effects of incoming and outgoing thermal radiation on global climate, and include: Atmosphere Clouds Oceans Topography Rainfall Etc.

16. Downscaling: Focus global projections to a scale relevant to climate impacts in Wisconsin GCM grid Downscaled (8x8 km) grid WCCI Climate Modeling Used 14 Global Climate Models (GCM’s) from IPCC 2007 assessment Verified using historical Wisconsin weather station data Provides a statistical range of probable climate change Source: Adapted from D. Vimont, UW-Madison

17. Wisconsin temperature and precipitation for 14 GCMs for 1980-1999 Black line = Observed temperature and precipitation Dave Lorenz Downscaled GCMs vs. Historic data

18. Predicted Annual Temperature Change Wisconsin projected to warm by 4 – 9 °F by mid-21 st Century Projected Change in Annual Average Temperature (°F) from 1980 to 2055 Source: Adapted from D. Vimont, UW-Madison Probability distribution of 14 GCM Projections 90% chance of exceeding this temperature 10% chance of exceeding this temperature 50% probability temperature (plotted on maps)

19. Projected Change in Seasonal Temperatures 1980 to 2055 (°F ) Winter Fall Summer Spring Warming is most pronounced in winter

20. Projected change in the frequency of ≥90°F days per year from 1980 to 2055 Projected change in the frequency of <0°F nights per year from 1980 to 2055 Projected Temperature Extremes Fewer extremely cold winter nights More hot summer days

21. Projected Change in Precipitation from 1980 to 2055 Change in Annual Average (inches) Probability Distributions of 14 Climate Model Projections by Month Source: Adapted from D. Vimont, UW-Madison Models predict winter and early spring will be wetter Models uncertain about amount of summer rainfall

22. 2.42 inches 5.6 days/yr 1.0 days/yr 0.2 days/yr Steve Vavrus Increase in Intense Precipitation Increasing in frequency Moderate increase in intensity

23. Heaviest rainfall events (>5” in 24 hours) - Not predicted to increase substantially in number or intensity Potter, et al.

24. While we cannot predict the future, we can estimate the risk (probability) from changing climate… Understanding the risk and potential consequences supports good decision- making. Predicted changes in monthly temperature and precipitation to 2090 David Lorenz, CCR Predicted changes in monthly temperature and precipitation to 2090 A word about uncertainty

25. Confident in a rise in nighttime and winter temperatures Expect a significant increase in rain during winter Moderate increase in frequency and intensity of rainfall Summary of Predicted Climate What does this mean for Wisconsin Communities?

26. WICCI Human Health Working Group = More Heat Waves Average temperatures increasing 4-9°F by 2050

27. Warmer summers = Reduced Air Quality Projected increases in ozone in Chicago (Source: Holloway et al. 2008)

28. High Water Impacts June 1-15, 2008 38 River gauges broke records 810 Square miles of land flooded 161 Communities overflowed 90 million gallons raw sewage 2,500 Drinking water wells tested - 28% contaminated $34M in damage claims paid Source: FEMA, WEM

29. Urban Flooding Flooding of streets, homes and businesses may become more frequent as rainfall patterns change. Critical infrastructure is also at risk from high water events, e.g. City of Reedsburg POTW required $800K in repairs. Photo: WDNR Photo: Robert Mckean / Zuma Press

30. Upland runoff and sanitary sewer overflows - Drinking water contamination - Beach closures - Wetland and aquatic habitat damage

31. Changing lake levels “The general scientific consensus is that water levels of Lake Michigan and Lake Superior will decline on average.....while continuing to exhibit large inter-decadal variation, as in the past 100 years.” - WICCI Coastal Communities Working Group Lake Superior Lake Michigan

32. Photos: D. Mickelson Coastal Erosion Warmer and wetter winters = - Increased infiltration; - More freeze/thaw cycles; - Increasing coastal erosion; - Bluff collapse and landslides.

33. Photo: WDNR How will Wisconsin adapt to climate change?

34. Heat waves Low lake levels Adapting to Climate Change Humans have always adapted to climate. But predicted changes lead us into unknown territory.

35. WICCI and Adaptation Mitigation is the idea that we can avoid, prevent or minimize undesirable things happening in the future. Adaptation is the idea that changes are occurring or will occur, and we can manage the impacts of those changes. WICCI recommends a risk management approach Climate presents hazards of varying severity and likelihood. Encourage no-regrets strategies - Clear present benefit - Building future capacity - Don’t gamble on uncertainty - Flexibility to respond to new information

36. Successful Adaptation Strategies – Update our design process – Identify our vulnerabilities – Long-range planning – Education and research – Better information

37. The records used may actually reflect a drier period (1938-1958). We are designing for a historic climate. Our designs are based on experience (i.e. history)

38. Heavy Rainfall Between 1950 and 2007 more than 135 rainfall events greater than 5" were recorded across the state. Liebl and Schuster Heavy rainfall can happen anywhere, now and in the future. Photo: DNR

39. Vulnerability Analysis “Build upon the experiences of communities that have experienced recent extreme rainfalls to guide a state-wide evaluation of vulnerabilities…..” - WICCI Stormwater Working Group Consider: – Floodplains and surface flooding – Areas of groundwater flooding – At-risk road-crossings – Stormwater BMPs – Sanitary sewer inflow and infiltration – Emergency response capacity – Wells and septic systems – Hazardous materials storage Photo: Joe Koshollek, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Photo: City of Antigo

40. Promote long-range planning - Planning for impacts 25 or 50 years out is challenging - Adaptation to low-risk, high-cost events requires political support - Use simulations to understand high water impacts - The next generation of planners needs to be trained today

41. Education and Research -Periodically reevaluate and revise climate and hydrologic design models and criteria. -Develop tools to distinguish the hydrologic effects of human activities from climate change. -Evaluate and improve strategies for managing high water. -Establish curriculum to build professional capacity among water resource managers.

42. Better Information is Needed - Real time stream-flow data - Robust groundwater monitoring - Fine scale rainfall data - Detailed understanding of sub-watershed characteristics - Updated estimates of flood profiles

43. Adaptation Strategies for Milwaukee - WICCI Milwaukee Working Group

44. Assistance to communities Extension outreach to provide local decision-makers with climate adaptation capacity. Identify areas and infrastructure in the community that are vulnerable to large storm events. -Economy -Environment -Infrastructure -Land use Funded by NOAA through Wisconsin Sea Grant, with UW-Extension and UW-Madison College of Engineering

45. WICCI Take-home Messages Our climate has and will continue to change. Wisconsin’s urban communities are vulnerable. We have adapted, and can continue to adapt: –Update our design process –Identify our high water vulnerabilities –Long-range planning –Education and research –Better information

46. Synthesis of climate impact assessments by WICCI Working Groups. Initial recommendations on adaptation strategies for decision-makers. www.wicci.wisc.edu