1. Slides prepared by Thomas Bishop Chapter 10 Trade Policy in Developing Countries

2. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-2 Preview Import substituting industrialization Trade liberalization since 1985 Export oriented industrialization

3. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-3 Introduction The term “developing countries” does not have a precise definition, but it is a name given to many low and middle income countries.

4. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-4 Import Substituting Industrialization Import substituting industrialization was a trade policy (more broadly, a development policy) adopted by many developing countries before the 1980s. The policy aimed to encourage domestic industries by limiting competing imports.  It was often accompanied with the belief that poor countries are exploited by rich countries through international trade.

5. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-5 Import Substituting Industrialization (cont.)

6. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-6 Import Substituting Industrialization (cont.) The principal justification of this policy is the infant industry argument:  Countries may have a potential comparative advantage in some industries, but these industries can not initially compete with established industries of advanced countries.  To allow these industries to establish themselves, governments should temporarily support them until they have grown strong enough to compete internationally.

7. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-7 Problems With the Infant Industry Argument 1.It may be wasteful to support industries now that will have a comparative advantage in the future. 2.No justification for government intervention unless there is ‘market failure’ that prevents the private sector from investing in the infant industry (thru market). 3.With protection, infant industries may never “grow up” or become competitive.

8. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-8 Infant Industries and Market Failures Two arguments for how market failures : 1.Imperfect (financial) capital markets  Because of poorly working financial laws and markets, new industries cannot borrow as much as they need, resulting in restricted economic growth.  Creating better functioning laws and markets is not feasible in most developing countries. High tariffs would be a second-best policy to increase profits for new industries, leading to more rapid growth.

9. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-9 Infant Industries and Market Failures (cont.) 2.The problem of appropriability  Firms may not be able to privately appropriate the benefits of their investment in new industries, because some of the benefits are public goods (or external economies).  It may be not appropriable (be a public good) because of a lack of property rights.  If establishing a system of property rights is not feasible, then high tariffs would be a second-best policy to encourage growth in new industries.

10. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-10 Import Substituting Industrialization As a strategy of economic development (or industrialization), the import substituting strategy adopted widely in the 1950-1960s. Did import substituting industrialization promote economic development (ultimate goal)?  No, countries adopting the policy grew more slowly than rich countries and other countries not adopting it.

11. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-11 Import Substituting Industrialization (cont.) It appeared that the infant industry argument was not as valid as some had initially believed. New industries did not become competitive despite or because of protections. Import substitution industrialization involved substantial costs, with wasteful use of resources:  Complex, time-consuming regulations.  High tariff rates for consumers, including firms that needed low-cost imported inputs for their products.  They promoted inefficiently small industries (sacrificing economies of scale).

12. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-12 Trade Liberalization There are some evidences that some developing countries which had relatively freer trade has had higher economic growth rate.  But this claim is debatable. However, by the mid-1980s many governments had lost faith in import substituting industrialization and began to liberalize trade.

13. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-13 Trade Liberalization (cont.)

14. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-14 Trade Liberalization (cont.)

15. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-15 Trade Liberalization (cont.) Has trade liberalization promoted economic development (ultimate goal)?  The evidence is mixed.  Growth rates in Brazil and other Latin American countries have been lower since trade liberalization than before. Unstable macroeconomic policies may be the main cause.  Countries like India have grown faster since liberalizing trade in the 1980s. Unclear to what degree liberalized trade contributed to growth. Income inequalities expanded since then.

16. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-16 Export Oriented Industrialization Several countries in East Asia adopted trade policies that promoted exports in some targeted industries.  <cf: import substituting industrialization  Japan, HK, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and China have experienced rapid growth in various export sectors and rapid economic growth in general.

17. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-17 Export Oriented Industrialization (cont.) These Asian economies have generated a high volume of exports and imports relative to total production.  By this standard, these economies are “open economies”. But it is debatable, to what degree these economies established “free trade”.  Although they had less restricted trade than other developing countries, some trade restrictions were in effect during different times.

18. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-18 Export Oriented Industrialization (cont.)

19. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-19 Export Oriented Industrialization (cont.) It is also unclear whether the high volume of exports and imports caused rapid economic growth or was merely correlated with rapid economic growth.  Some argue that the cause of rapid economic growth was high saving and investment rates.  In addition, rapid growth in education, leading to high literacy and numeracy rates created more productive labor force (human capital).

20. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-20 Industrial Policies in East Asia Some East Asian economies have implemented industrial policies:  policies intended to promote certain industries.  Tools of industrial policies include not only trade policies,  but also policies like subsidized loans for certain industries and subsidized R&D. Not all East Asian economies implemented these policies,  The ones that did had a wide variety of policies.

21. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-21 Industrial Policies in East Asia (cont.) There is little evidence that countries with industrial policies had more rapid growth than those that did not. Some evidence suggests that industrial policies failed:  Chemicals, steel, automobiles were promoted by the South Korean government in the 1970s,  later abandoned because they were too expensive and did not produce desired growth.

22. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-22 Summary 1.Import substituting industrialization aimed to promote economic growth by restricting imports that competed with domestic products in low and middle income countries. 2.The infant industry argument says that new industries (e.g., in poor countries) need temporary trade protection because of market failures:  imperfect capital markets that restrict borrowing  problems of appropriating gains from private investment

23. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-23 Summary (cont.) 3.Import substituting industrialization was tried in the 1950s and 1960s but by the mid-1980s it was abandoned for trade liberalization. 4.The precise effect of liberalized trade on national welfare is still being debated.  Trade helped growth in some sectors, but saying that trade caused higher overall economic growth has attracted some skepticism.  Some argue that trade has caused increased income inequality.

24. Copyright © 2006 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 10-24 Summary (cont.) 5.Several East Asian economies adopted export oriented industrialization instead of import substituting industrialization.  High export and import volumes and relatively low trade restrictions were characteristics of this policy.  But it is unclear to what degree this policy contributed to overall economic growth. 6.Some East Asian economies used more general industrial policies as well.  But it is unclear to what degree this policy contributed to or hindered overall economic growth.