1. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management André Faaij Copernicus Institute, Faculty of Science - Utrecht University Task Leader IEA Task 40. IEA Bioenergy ExCo65, Nara, JAPAN 12 May – 14 May 2010 Scientific needs and market impacts of securing sustainability of bioenergy

2. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Current main Shipping Lanes for biomass and biofuels for energy Wood Pellets Ethanol Palm Oil & Ag Residues

3. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management A future vision on global bioenergy… [GIRACT/Faaij, 2008] 250 Mha = 100 EJ = 5% ag land + pasture = 1/3 Brazil

4. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Rapid food price increases... 3-75% caused by biofuels, literature says

5. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Latest price developments...; analysis?

6. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Agricultural land use! We need a lot more food (especially protein). We don’t have (a lot) more (agricultural) land. Agriculture and livestock main threat for biodiversity (today…), main consumer of water, main emitter of GHG’s. Agriculture and poverty interlinked: 70% of the world’s poor in rural setting; Agricultural productivity is low on large parts of the globe. Such agricultural practices often unsustainable as such. Poverty (and lack of investment) key driver for unsustainable land use (erosion, forest loss).

7. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Contributors to land use change…

8. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management iLUC factors… Searchinger: 1 Later global (macro-economic) analyses: 0.3 -> 0.2 -> 0.15… More detailed regional studies: depends highly (Fully…) on rate of improvement in agricultural and livestock management (e.g Apola, et al. PNAS, 2010) This was also & already the case in Hoogwijk, Smeets, REFUEL, etc. etc.

9. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Projections for biotrade? So far scarce (IEA Task 40 assessments…). Main efforts on 1 st gen biofuels using CGE models; generally developed for agricultural markets (biofuel marginal factor). Lignocellulose and impact advanced technologies on markets poorly covered: IEA-ETP, 2008

10. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Understanding biomass resource potentials requires integration of many science arena’s Pfff, it’s complex…

11. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Bottlenecks (I): improve key insights and data: Embed technological learning of bioenergy systems properly in models (production, supply and conversion systems). [Bottom-up] Learning of agricultural and livestock management (in relation to prices, settings and policies). [Bottom-up]

12. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Bottlenecks (II): Biophiscal models ~ environment: Water [regional level; bottom-up] Biodiversity (resolve methodological issues; management options and reference situations). Proper incorporation of residues and wastes. Marginal and degraded lands [data!!!]

13. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Bottlenecks (III): modeling frameworks: Integrate biophysical and macro-economic models (partly tackled: IFPRI, UU/PBL/LEI - IMAGE/GTAP). Feedbacks prices (and policies) on learning and intensification. New advanced scenario’s: policy driven, sustainability incorporated. –Key additons: –2 nd (+) generation options –Biomaterials –Non-agricultural lands (forest, marginal, degraded, etc.) Backed by concrete examples; model verification

14. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management B1 2050 Source: Hoogwijk, Faaij 2005 A2 2050 A1 2050 Integrated assessment modelling results (IMAGE) B2 2050

15. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Limitations in degraded land, protected areas and water

16. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Overall Picture Yes, biomass can play a significant role in future energy supply [Bioenergy Revisited: Dornburg et al., Energy & Environmental Science, 2010]

17. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Assessment and synthesis of available information [Bioenergy Revisited: Dornburg et al., Energy & Environmental Science, 2010] Global biomass potentials 2050…

18. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Determining factors biomass potentials Dornburg et al., 2010

19. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Good news on criteria frameworks and frontline of debate: Debate has come to it’s senses a bit. Recognition that iLUC for biofuels alone is inconsistent: it is about management of land use. Spillover effect from biofuels (< 1% of land for food) to agriculture & livestock; COOL!!!. More attention for synergies (e.g.: Committee Corbey, Netherlands, 2010, GSB initiative, 2010)

20. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Overview and comparison of initiatives to guarantee sustainability of bioenergy Preliminary results: 67 initiatives (regulation + systems) included All relevant for (some) sustainability issues and/or Various parts of the bioenergy value chain Dam et al., RSER, 2010 (forthcoming) IEA Task 40

21. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management overview and comparison of sustainability certification schemes (2) 28 initiatives cover the sustainability of biofuels From which 17 are developing principles Dam et al., RSER, 2010 (forthcoming) IEA Task 40

22. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Summary regulation European Commission: ArticleCriterion 17.2Full-chain GHG emission reduction >35% (increasing over time) 17.3Exclusion of lands with high biodiversity value 17.4Exclusion of lands with high carbon stock that have recently been converted into e.g. cropland 17.5Exclusion of peat land unless proven that drainage of previously un drained soil is not involved 17.6Condition of good agricultural practice (EU) 17.7Obligation to the Commission to report on soil, water and air impacts and social impacts in regions that are a significant source of feedstock Derived from the Provisional edition of the text adopted by the Parliament on 17-12-2008:

23. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management European Commission and Meta-standard Approach: European Commission (and also Netherlands, others) will follow meta-standard approach Benchmarking of systems that meet requirements Ongoing process for coming years (review in 2014) FSC Regulation European Commission PEFC RTRS BSI RSPO ISCC NTA-8080 Etc. Forestry systems Agricultural systems Bioenergy systems

24. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management The bad news on frameworks: The overview of 67 initiatives shows that concerns in various parts of the world are focused on food security and on the socio- economic impacts of bioenergy production. Strikingly, these concerns are generally not included in the existing initiatives. The overview shows a strong proliferation of standards and, consequently, the risk for confusion in the market, abuse and “shopping” of standards. Dam et al., RSER, 2010 (forthcoming)

25. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Macro-meso-micro level Examples are: Impacts of Biodiversity, water, socio-economic impacts… Key: Sustainability performance on various levels is influenced by external and internal factors and performance Macro scale: Genetic diversity species in the world Micro scale Agrobiodiversity Meso scale: Ecological services, Agroecolocial areas

26. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Operationalisation of sustainability criteria costs land availability Criteria deforestation competition with food production biodiversity soil erosion fresh water nutrient leaching pollution from chemicals employment child labour wages Impact crop management system yield quantity cost supply curve [Smeets et al., Biomass & Bioenergy 2010]

27. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Cost supply curve Ukraine with sustainability demands [Smeets et al., Biomass & Bioenergy 2010]

28. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Argentina; example full impact analysis Different scenario’s for land-use and agricultural management Compares soybean (biodiesel) to switchgrass (pellets) Focus on more marginal area in one province (La Pampa) Follows main principles of Cramer framework Van Dam et al., 2009 (forthcoming) Van Dam et al., Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2009

29. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Relative sustainability performance switchgrass and soybean bioenergy chain Switchgrass bioenergy chainSoybean bioenergy chain PrinciplesCURABC ABC SmSS S S S S S S Reference land- useCDCDGDCDCDCDGDCD Soil carbon balance+++ +++ +0--0 0- GHG balance++ + ++0 + Land-use change - Change in land-use≈0+ ≈0- - Rise land prices00-0+0+000--00-- - Rise food prices≈ 0 Biodiversity+0+0+0+00-0---0- Soil quality and quantity Soil erosion++ - + 0-0---++0 Soil nutrients≈++≈+≈++≈+ ≈++≈+≈0/-≈--≈0≈-- ≈0≈- Water quality and quantity - Water quality+++ +-+ +0--0 0 - Water quantity≈ 0+≈ 0-≈ 0+≈ 0-≈ 0+≈ 0≈ 0+≈ 0 ≈ 0-≈0≈ 0-≈ 0+≈ 0-≈ 0+≈ 0- Air quality0000000000000000 Local prosperity+++ + + ++0+0+0+0 Social well-being0000++++0000++++ Van Dam et al., Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2009

30. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Negative vision, (ahead of IPCC- SRREN…)

31. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Positive vision (ahead of IPCC- SRREN…)

32. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Final Remarks Key parameters (land-use, management system, selected crop) define sustainability. This makes it possible to steer sustainability in regions with proper biobased chains and governance. Sustainability frameworks both a barrier and an opportunity for trade… …the only acceptable way forward, but harmonization and new governance models a priority. Analyses of impacts on market development and trade require (much more) sophisticated tools. But these are being developed (IEA Task 40 priority)…

33. Copernicus Institute Sustainable Development and Innovation Management Thanks for your attention For more information: www.bioenergytrade.org E-mail: A.P.C.Faaij@uu.nl key References: Dornburg et al.,2010, (Energy & Environmental Science) Hoogwijk et al., 2005 & 2009, (Biomass & Bioenergy) Van Dam et al., 2008, (Biomass & Bioenergy) Wicke et al., 2008, (Biomass & Bioenergy) Smeets et al., 2010 (Biomass & Bioenergy) Wicke et al., 2010 (Land use policy; forthcoming) Wicke et al., 2009 (Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews) Van Dam et al., 2009 (Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews) Van Dam et al., 2010 (Forthcoming: Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews)