1. 11/15/2010 National Petroleum Council Future Transportation Fuels Study L1 Peer Review Technology Pinchpoints Pre - Reading 1

2. 11/15/2010 Technology Pinchpoints Methodology 2 Technology Scope Supply Chains Pinchpoints Narrowing to 3-4 target pathways Pathways over time Acceleration Examples What is the scope of the technology being analysed by the subgroup? What are the key elements in the supply chain? What are the challenges and opportunities in the supply chain that could drive deployment? What are the focus areas for research? Of the universe of competing pathways available in this technology group, what are the shortlist of pathways based on likelihood of commercial success? Which pathways meet scenario objectives? Example: Biofuels has a number of competing pathways How can we accelerate the scale up of this pathway? Where is the uncertainty/risk in this acceleration Choice of acceleration impacted by scenario choices What is the benefit/value? Objective: To identify the focus area for research that can accelerate the market success of a technology by unblocking the challenges and opportunities Current Status For the shortlist of pathways overtime, where are their significant barriers? How is the pathway likely to evolve? Where is the uncertainty/risk in this evolution and how is this treated? What is the cost/benefit/value? Example: Electric has 3 charts: PHEV20, PHEV40, 100% Electric

3. 11/15/2010 Sub Groups 3 Biofuels Natural Gas Electric Hydrogen Engines/Platforms

4. 11/15/2010 Biofuels Pinchpoints 4 Feedstock Biochemical Thermochemical Algae See separate file

5. 11/15/2010 Sub Groups 5 Biofuels Natural Gas Electric Hydrogen Engines/Platforms

6. 11/15/2010 Natural Gas Pinchpoints 6 NGV Infrastructure Vehicle Pumps Site Storage Site Production CNG Storage On-site Liquefaction CNG Compression LNG Storage CNG Pumps LNG Cryogenic Pumps Digesters and Upgrading Facilities Engines OEM Integration Vehicle Fuel Tanks LNG Tanks CNG Cylinders Vehicle Conversions Specific NGV Designs Dual Fuel Engines Engine Types & Sizes Engine Performance High Medium Low Priority of resolution to drive NGV deployment Need to ensure engine efficiency growth, and remain compatible with new auxiliary technology such as heat recovery Expand range of engine types and sizes to increase user compatibility Need to increase diesel substitution and robustness Increase purpose-design NGV vehicles with optimised perf/packaging Important to support for early roll out, but need to standardise and cost reduce Increase storgae capacity/density for range, and reduce storage pressure requirements Reduce cost, increase production scale. Improve fuel level sensing On-site compression is widespread. Standards and cost reduction required. Technology for small fleet/ home refueling Small scale liquefaction plants will allow wider, economic LNG site deployment. Digesters & biogas upgraders are commercially available & widely used in Europe/China Reduce site costs to improve infrastructure economics Widespread LNG storage will require low-cost modular tanks Cryogenic pumps not as reliable as CNG/Gasoline. Further dev’t of automated unmanned pumps. Home and small fleet pumps are reasonably mature but not economic Peak shavers/LNG Terminals Better utilisation of existing LNG production Fuel quality consistency Standards required for RNG. Auto- sensing & correction will increase product robustness

7. 11/15/2010 Natural Gas - Fuel Supply Chain - 2010 Feedstock Compression Transmission ( Pipeline) Liquefaction (240,000 gpd) LNG Distribution (Trucking or rail) LNG Station MD Trucks/ Buses HD Trucks Locomotive/ Marine HHP LNG CNG Conventional NG, Unconventional NG, Bio-methane L/CNG Station CNG Station On-site LNG Storage On-site Compressor & Storage Distribution (city pipeline) LD Vehicles 7

8. 11/15/2010 Natural Gas - Vehicle Supply Chain - 2010 8 Vehicle OEM Dealer Factory Built Gas Engines Loose Gas Engine Converters Vehicle Fuel Supply System Installer Vehicle Converters Existing Vehicles Engine Gas Components Vehicle Gas Components Factory Finished Vehicles Customer Vehicles with NG engine but no fuel storage (eg buses or refuse) Retrofitted or Repowered existing vehicles Loose Conventional Engine Light, Medium & Heavy Duty all follow one of these paths today

9. 11/15/2010 NGV – Technology Paths To Satisfy Demand Levers NGVs Maximise Diesel /Gasoline substitution Usable Range Vehicle Availability Gas Storage Capacity Fuel Efficiency Fuel Flexibility Higher Pressure CNG New storage medium for CNG Eg Metal Organic Frameworks Square section LNG tanks Increase LNG storage capacity Lightweight materials to enable more fuel w/o weight Tank & Refuelling Technology Petroleum Reduction Bi-fuel Capability w/o breaching regulations Improved Dual Fuel Compression Ignition Engines Emissions GHG & Criteria Pollutants CH4 Catalysis Fuel Tank Venting Increased Thermal Integrity Vented fuel recovery & use Advanced Comb’n – PCCI / HCCI Increase SI Dilution Tolerance High CR SI Engines Economics First Price & Residual Value Fuel Costs Quality Reliability Durability Improved Ignition Systems Component Life LNG Pump durability Fuel Injection System durability Increased System Integration Vehicle Designs Tailored For Gas Engines Designed For Gas Low Temp, High Durability Reduce NOx & PM A/T Improved Combustion System Cost Base Warranty Cost Cost Reduced Design & Need - Tank, Injector, Controls, Pumps, Aftertreatment Engines Designed For Gas OEM Product Offerings Design for service not replacement Fuel Infrastructure Availability Cost Reduced Mfg- Tank, Injector, Controls, Pumps Production Scale See Infrastructure Vehicle & Engine Ratings Platform & OEM diversity OEM System Integration & Optimisation DEMAND LEVERS 9

10. 11/15/2010 Sub groups 10 Biofuels Natural Gas Electric Hydrogen Engines/Platforms

11. 11/15/2010 Electric Pinchpoints 11

12. 11/15/2010 Electric Pinchpoints 12

13. 11/15/2010 Sub groups 13 Biofuels Natural Gas Electric Hydrogen Engines/Platforms

14. 11/15/2010 Hydrogen Pinchpoints 14

15. 11/15/2010 Hydrogen Pinchpoints 15

16. 11/15/2010 Sub groups 16 Biofuels Natural Gas Electric Hydrogen Engines/Platforms

17. 11/15/2010 Engines/Vehicles Liquid FuelsPowertrain IC engine Stratified charge lean burn not competitive Low cost aftertreatment system robust to fuels and driving conditions Gasoline HCCI System robust to all driving patterns and fuels Clean diesel Low cost fuel and emissions control Exhaust heat recovery Increased efficiency of thermoelectric devices Batteries High cost of batteries New material R &D; subsidies on manuf. Disposal of old HEV batteries could limit HEV penetration Low cost recycling or end of life use HEV growth limited by battery & materials Invest in domestic sourcing of strategic materials and manuf. Hybrid System High cost of motors/regen braking R&D on new technologies Vehicles Fuel flexibility More FFVs needed Incentives/mandates, low price E85 Mass/Drag/Rolling Carbon fiber bodies are expensive and hard to mass produce Material/manuf. R&D Vehicle mass for crash safety New technology for vehicles that don’t crash combined with appropriate new regs Vehicle mix Large vehicles bought when not needed all year Incentives for car sharing or flexible leasing Traffic Traffic congestion & drag R&D on vehicle platooningCommunication to vehicle Technology for taxis and parking on demand Fuels Carbon footprint Need high of volumes low carbon fuels More R& D and demo plants built E85 Price per mile higher than gasoline Technology investment to reduce cost Not widely available Require all new station tanks to be E85 capable Octane Higher octane enables higher engine efficiency Increase use of ethanol or refining investment for higher octane High Impact Moderate impact Lower Impact Engines/Platforms Pinchpoints 17

18. 11/15/2010 Engines/Platforms Pinchpoints Technology PinchpointPotential Resolution High cost of advanced batteries, electric motors, power electronics, re-gen brakes, etc R&D, stable incentives/ policy to promote investment and volume High material and manufacturing cost for lightweight materials R&D Passive safety technologies add massR&D Gasoline stratified charge, HCCI, and diesel R&D on controls and aftertreatment High volume, low cost biofuelsR&D to reduce cost, investment in full scale biorefineries to drive learning cycles Congestion mitigation technologies (e.g. V2X) R&D / demos / “races / challenges” 18

19. 11/15/2010 Engines/Platforms Benefit and Cost of Existing Technology - Small Car 19 New Technologies HCCI Emerging engine technologies SMART vehicles to avoid congestion diesel after treatment (emissions control) stratified charge lean burn Many conventional and advanced technologies can be stacked to achieve significant reductions, but costs exceed breakeven even with high gasoline prices

20. 11/15/2010 Engines/Platforms Benefit and Cost of Existing Technology - Large Truck 20 New Technologies HCCI Emerging engine technologies SMART vehicles to avoid congestion diesel after treatment (emissions control) stratified charge lean burn Breakeven, 3 yrs/15% Costs of fuel consumption reduction with large light duty vehicles, greater than those for compact vehicles, also exceed breakeven