1. Discussion Topics on Thursdays 1  Sep 12 시리아 사태와 미국  Sep 26 필리버스터 (Filibuster): 한미 비교  Oct 10Same-sex marriage  Oct 31Gun control debate  Nov 7 한미 원자력협정  Nov 14Obama’s Pivot to the Pacific  Nov 21Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)  Nov 28 미중관계  Dec 5 미국의 대북한 정책  De 12Obama Care (Affordable Care Act)

2. 발표 관련 ….. 2  News 발표 (5%)  2 분  President 발표  Six Power Point Slides (5 분 )  President 발표 비중 : 10%  15% 으로 변경  Debate  15 minutes for Topic Presentation + + 10 minutes for Debates  발표 전날 ( 수요일 ) 저녁 9 시까지 발표 PPT 를 이메일로 보낼 것 (SEOJK@KHU.AC.KR)

3. Obama 행정부 2 기의 과제와 전망 I 3  “Compromise” as a Mandate  Fiscal cliff 이슈  Immigration reform 과제  경제회복과 재정적자  차기 국무장관 ? Bernanke 연임 (2014 년 1 월 )?  “6 th year itch” in American political history  2014 년 변수 (2013-2014 년이 중요 )  2016 년 대선전망 (open seat race, again: 2000, 2008, 2016 년 )  민주당 : Hillary Clinton 출마여부가 가장 큰 변수  공화당 : “Big Idea” Election?

4. Obama 행정부 2 기의 과제와 전망 II 4  US-China Relations  재선대통령의 우호적인 대중국관계 (Clinton, Bush, Obama)  Not only inter-branch but also inter-chamber relationship 의회 / 행정부 관계뿐 아니라 상원 / 하원의 관계도 중요 “position taking” strategy vs. “policy change” voting  양국 모두 국내 정치 / 경제적 불만과 불안요소들을 어떻게 control 할 것인가가 관건 환율전쟁 변수 영토분쟁 변수

5. Obama 행정부 2 기의 과제와 전망 III 5  US-North Korea Relations  기본적으로 strategic ignorance/lurching from crisis to crisis  4*5 = 20 즉 1992 년 김영삼 /Clinton 이래 20 년 만에 양국의 새 정부가 같은 해에 출범  새 정권 초기가 중요한데 (100 days), 이 과정에서 새로운 한국정부가 대북관계를 주도적 / 전향적으로 틀려고 할 때 American Grand Strategy 방향과 어떻게 연결될 것인지가 관건 Grand bargaining 에 대한 미국의회의 지지가 필수 1994 년 Agreed Framework 당시 분점정부상황에서 북미합의가 제대로 이행되지 못했던 측면에 대한 고찰이 필요

6. Ch 1. American Political History 6  One of the recurring political traditions in America “Americans want powerful leadership, yet they distrust authority and the abuse of power.”  “Evolving” expectations of the American presidency and government  the impacts of war and trade on presidential power  First, what about the framers’ view of the presidency and constitutional approaches?

7. The Articles of Confederation (1781-1788)  The Continental Congress and the Articles of Confederation  Limited power of the central government & Powerful state legislatures = “A firm league of friendship”  States could print own money  fiscal chaos  States could set own tariff rates  commercial chaos  Equal representation by state legislatures  Heavy emphasis on states rights and required a super-majority of 9 out of 13 to get anything done 7

8. The Articles of Confederation (1781-1788)  Congress could declare war, but had to ask states for soldiers  No power to regulate commerce or raise taxes; had to ask states for voluntary donations  No executive and judicial institutions to implement and execute the laws 8

9. Problems with the Articles 9  Problems began immediately  Shays’ Rebellion (1786-1787) and threats from England and Spain o Daniel Shays = a former captain in the Continental Army and a bankrupt farmer in Western Massachusetts o Couldn’t pay taxes and mortgages, tried to get courts to forget them o Took months to end the rebellion and showed the weakness of the states and central government o Crisis of governance  the Constitutional Convention

10. Constitutional Convention (1787)  Constitutional Convention (1787)  lasted for four months in Philadelphia  desire to strengthen the national government while preventing a tyranny of majority  “separation of powers” and “federalism”  Connecticut Compromise:  House (for large states: Virginia Plan)  Senate (for small states: New Jersey Plan) 10

11. The Framers’ Expectations  The Founding Era  fear of tyranny on the one hand & anarchy on the other hand  Shays’ Rebellion (1786-1787)  The Constitutional Convention in the State House in Philadelphia  Solutions to prevent tyranny = system of checks and balances, separation of powers within and across levels of government (the “Madisonian Democracy”)  Indirect elections (senate and president) and varying terms  Senators chosen by popular votes only after the 17 th Amendment in 1913  Power derived from the Constitution 11

12. Achieving Balance I  A two-year term for the House a compromise between the annual elections advocated by many delegates and the three-year term proposed by James Madison  A short tenure would keep this chamber close to the people  A longer-term and “staggered elections” for the Senate The Senate insulated from momentary shifts in the public mood by virtue of a longer term, in addition to their selection by state legislatures  www.senate.gov www.senate.gov  Another compromise on bills raising revenue 12

13. Achieving Balance II  “Advice and consent power” by the U.S. Senate  To a degree, the Framers envisioned the Senate acting as an advisory council to the president.  Framers’ belief that the more “aristocratic” and insulated of the two houses would keep a steadier eye on the country’s long-term interests.  "Why did you pour that coffee into your saucer?" asked Washington. "To cool it," said Jefferson. "Even so," responded Washington, "we pour legislation into the senatorial saucer to cool it.“  Now, also polarized politics in the Senate! 13

14. Achieving Balance III  Finally, the president was used as a means to further the balance of power by giving the executive branch the authority to:  Recommend (not introduce) new laws (Ex: Obama’s American Jobs Bill)  Call Congress into special session  Most importantly, the power to veto laws passed by Congress, killing them unless two-thirds of each chamber votes to override the veto “veto threat” vs. “veto”: what’s more effective? 14