1. It’s looking good: the emerging case for Digital Railway Martin Arter Programme Development Director Digital Railway Supplier’s Conference 20 November 2015 Agenda

2. Peak time overcrowding on our busiest routes. Of Europe’s congested infrastructure. Most intensively used railway in Europe. 50% 200% 2nd 1bn Extra journeys if growth in next 2 decades matches the last.

3. Conventional enhancements alone: Unaffordable on national scale Supply chain constraints Slow to plan and build Highly disruptive

4. The current infrastructure….. Is under-utilised – has latent capacity Limits train speeds below potential. Is an aging and expensive legacy. Has higher costs and longer timeframes for upgrades. …so has become a blocker to growth

5. We need to access the capacity… Through modern, digital command, control & signalling Minimise conventional interventions Change the way the railway operates ….. there is no other viable choice

6. Creating a Digital Railway Beyond ERTMS

7. We are are creating a common “Toolkit ” The Phase 2 Digital railway Configuration ”

8. Phase 3 – Definition Building on the capacity and delivering additional benefits Ongoing Toolkit Dev’t - Specs - Templates - Manuals - Processes - System applications - Implementation plans Supply chain management Pan-industry collaboration Route Plans Power system design 3 rd rail / OLE ERTMS level 3 + associated controls Up-to-date customer information Open Architecture CCS Automated Design

9. We are progressively building the ‘Green Book’ business case: Capacity at lower cost  Cost  Customer  Capacity  Carbon  Safety SOC June15 fOBC Oct 15 OBC (IIP) June 16 Improved reliability Improved safety Improved connections Services and Skills Export opportunity Built on economic assessments of: FBC (SBP) Sept 17 Quantitative assessment Case-study-based assessment SWML Analysis showed: Up to 40% additional tph at c.30% less capital cost Analysis of nine different types of routes to inform economic evaluation

10. Key findings at fOBC, October 2015 The fOBC analysis is designed to inform choices made in the Initial Industry Plan. It demonstrates that an accelerated approach to digital modernisation: 1)delivers a positive BCR in comparison with traditional construction-based enhancement – enabling more rapid realisation of the National Infrastructure Commission’s goals of Transforming Connectivity in the North, and keeping London moving. 2)delivers benefits across every type of route reviewed, which can be tailored to local priorities – be they for more trains, better connections or greater reliability – each delivered at lower cost than purely conventional alternatives. 3)requires a railway-system-wide approach to digital modernisation – for which GB is now gaining recognition as leading amongst European railways. 4)is realisable through a deployment sequence designed to maximise delivery confidence – striking the right balance between minimising delivery risk whilst maximising early economic benefit. We seek for IIP to employ as a baseline an ERTMS (ETCS L2) configuration state, with a revised deployment plan: previously based on lowest whole life cost driven by signalling life-expiry, it will now be based on maximising economic benefit for GB within a set of delivery constraints.

11. fOBC: South West Main Line BCR Initial South West Main Line Benefit Cost Ratio (subject to ongoing assurance) Conclusions AM high-peak hour trains into London Waterloo Today’s plan and full conventional upgrade by 2032 Digital Railway Phase 2 some conventional upgrade by 2028 Digital Railway Phase 3 some conventional upgrade by 2028 Range of Benefit Cost Ratios 11 more trains0.9*1.3*1.5 Sensitivity test of only 6 new trains 0.40.50.6 *only 10 more trains per hour are possible under these options The BCRs reflects current costs of deployment and evaluate only WebTAG-derived passenger-related economic benefit, derived from provision of c.30,000 additional seats per day. They show the potential of a digitally enabled approach (with some necessary conventional intervention at pinch points) outweighs a fully conventional upgrade approach in every case. Further work is required to establish a full economic benefit appraisal toolkit that can be applied consistently through the IIP/OBC process.

12. ‘Digital’ benefits are across the network but they differ depending on the characteristics of the route, and the optimum capacity trade-off: A system approach with ERTMS (ETCS Level 2) delivers compelling benefits which could be built upon further by an upgrade to ETCS Level 3 once developed. A faster national deployment maximises the benefits from investment to passengers, freight users and the Rail industry. More Trains Greater ReliabilityBetter Connections fOBC: Route-based findings

13. Line of route characteristicsCapacityReliabilityBetter connectionsLower Cost South West Main Line – London Commuter, freight and interregional ★★★★★ ★ ★★★ Northern Powerhouse Rail – transformational programme linking the Northern cities 2 ★★★ Midland Main Line – long distance high- speed, interregional freight and London commuter ★ ★★★★★★★ Brighton Main Line – London commuter ★ ★★★★ ★ Leicester – Ely – Freight Felixstowe to north and midlands and interregional ★★★★★★ ★★★ Cardiff Valleys – non-London commuter ★★★★★ ★ Aberdeen to Central Belt – interregional and freight ★★★★★★ Grantham – Skegness – rural ★★ ★ Essex Thameside – London commuter and freight 1 ★★ ★★ ★★ ★ c Opportunity to achieve greater capacity benefits and cost savings with future implementation of ETCS Level 3 1 Essex Thameside – Route Study analysis based on the growth forecasts from the Market Studies shows that lengthening of services on the route will support capacity on the route to 2043 2 Northern Powerhouse and Midland Main Line – Digital Railway has the potential to reduce the cost of electrification

14. fOBC Delivery Context: Building a new baseline for IIP The current baseline is to digitally renew life expired signalling and control systems. However, there is emerging evidence that the 50-year baseline plan is unsustainable. The current baseline is to digitally renew life expired signalling and control systems. However, there is emerging evidence that the 50-year baseline plan is unsustainable. ► The signalling renewals programme is likely to become unsustainable. CP5 Renewals target is now circa 7,000 units (was 12000), making the CP6 plan 17,000 units, and CP7 12,000. We would require to increase delivery capability (and access) by 80% to deliver this plan. ► The extended period of concurrently running legacy systems and digital systems in ROCs will be operationally difficult to run safely and expensive to maintain: ► Multiple control systems ► Multiple signalling systems ► Multiple operating environments ► Driver transitions (ETCS/Conventional) would become an operational limitation.

15. fOBC: Provides the inputs required for a revised IIP baseline The revised baseline for the IIP is being established in compliance with current DfT policy, based on whole-system development and deployment of ERTMS (ETCS L2). The proposal is to proceed with a revised IIP baseline that: ► Establishes a DfT policy-compliant plan based on the Digital Railway Phase 2 configuration (ETCS L2 / Integrated TM / CDAS / Telecomms / Core systems) and the existing franchising calendar. ► Accelerates the delivery of the plan as far as possible. Due to the resource intensive nature of Phase 2 deployment this is likely to be a circa 25 year programme. fOBC has shown that additional cost and performance benefits are realisable from an ETCS L3-based approach. It is proposed that, in parallel: ► the programme continues to develop a Digital Railway Phase 3 configuration (ETCS L3/Open Architecture/Modular Design) to the point of being ready for full deployment. ► an option is included in the IIP to transition to a Phase2/Phase 3 Digital Railway in CP6 once Phase 3 is proven and can be adopted as DfT policy.

16. Planning/Development/Design Delivery 2017/18 2015 1617181920212223242526 CP5CP6 CP7 Phase 1: Initiate Tactical projects and early deployments in CP5: Up-front benefits plus detailed design for national roll-out. Review point for transition to Phase 3 deployment. Phase 2: Integrate Region-by-region deployment using consistent, scalable toolkits for technology, people and process Phase 3: Next Generation Research and innovation creating options to upgrade to next-generation technology - delivering increased benefits on a faster timescale. A strategy built on lessons from Europe and early deployments A ‘systems architecture’ approach – a common blueprint of how services, technology, and data integrate – its more than just ERTMS Robust systems design and trialling, based on proven, policy- complaint technology Deployment prioritised by area with greatest benefits and readiness. DEVELOPING SOUTIONS THAT WORK AND ARE DELIVERABLE

17. Rolling Programme of Digitisation

18. Key Criteria Applied to ROC’s (Illustration Only) The assessment is a starting point, and will be further refined & optimised through further analysis and engagement with our industry partners. LNE (York) South East (Three Bridges) Anglia (Romford) LNW South (Rugby) LNW North (Manch.) East Mids (Derby) Wessex (Basingstoke) West Scotland (Glasgow) Wales (Cardiff) Western (Didcot) East Scotland (Edinburgh) Southern Capacity improvement (passenger) High LowHigh Low HighLow Support Northern Powerhouse HighLow High Low Improve Freight journey Times & Paths HighLowHigh Improved Timetable Adherence (Performance) High Low MedLow Key Line of Route completion High MedLowMedLow Med Level of existing Phase 2 investment HighLowHighLow Tranche NOTE: Weightings not as yet applied, nor full list of criteria T1 T1 (ED) & T2T2 T3 T4 For illustrative purposes only

19. DR Phase 2 Roll Out – 25 Year Tranche 1 ONLY: Each ROC area will have an additional 1.5 years to implement full Phase 2 railway Overlap : 1.5 Years between Tranches For illustrative purposes only

20. DR Phase 3 Roll Out – Accelerated Tranche 1 ONLY: Each ROC area will have an additional 3 years to implement full Phase 2 railway Overlap : 1.5 Years between Tranches For illustrative purposes only

21. It’s looking good: the emerging case for Digital Railway 20 th November 2015 Agenda