1. Glen Whitehead Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency October 2012 Transport 1

2. Transport Sector Overview 1990 Mt2010 Mt% Contribution to National % change 1990 to 2010 Transport62.184.414.629.2

3. Australia’s Emission Estimation Methodology Early methodology – Tier 1 For the 2006 inventory year, Australia moved to more complex models Better reflected the characteristics of the Australian vehicle fleet Improvements in vehicle standards reflected in inventory estimates

4. Key Data Sources Key data sources: –Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) –Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) –Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) –Australian Government Departments (Defence, Transport) –Private sector data sources

5. Road Transport CO 2 emissions from the road transport sector is based on a tier 2 method with country specific EFs. The estimation of non–CO 2 emissions is based on a tier 3 method Emission estimates dependent on –type of vehicle –age of the vehicle fleet –engine type –operating mode (cold versus hot) –road type (urban versus non-urban)

6. Methodology for the estimation of non-CO 2 emissions from passenger and light commercial vehicles

7. Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) – Fuel Consumption Australian Energy Statistics (AES) BREE is an economic research unit within the Australian Government Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism Fuel use data at a national and state level, by fuel type and transport sector

8. Activity Data – Fuel Consumption Rates ABS - Survey of Motor Vehicle Use Statistics on passenger vehicle, motorcycle, truck, and bus use for characteristics such as –distance travelled – average kilometres travelled per year by vehicle type –vehicle type –fuel type –average fuel consumption values by vehicle and fuel type

9. Activity Data – Vehicle Types ABS - Motor Vehicle Census 2010 Statistics for vehicles from road registries Statistics are provided on vehicle types comprising –type of vehicle –year of manufacture –fuel type of fuel vehicle was registered as using –state in which vehicle is registered/used

10. Emission Standards Passenger vehicles and light commercial vehicles manufactured and sold in Australia –before 1976 assumed to have no emissions control equipment –1976-1985 group uses a variety of non-catalytic control (such as exhaust gas recirculation) –1985-1997, 1998-2003, 2004-2005 and the post-2005 groups use catalytic control Australian petrol passenger car exhaust emission standards Australian StandardYear IntroducedSource Standard ADR 79/002004Euro 2 ADR 79/012006Euro 3 ADR 79/022010Euro 4

11. Activity Date – Average Trip Length and Urban Split Australia also purchases data from private data suppliers, including Adam Pekol Consulting Modelling work using publically available data to estimate a time series of values.

12. Emission Factors - CO 2 CO 2 EFs are country specific for each fuel type –Tomorrow’s presentation on country specific emission factors

13. Non CO 2 EF Development National In Service Emission (NISE) Study Undertaken for Australia by Orbital Australia to test the real world performance of emissions control technologies 347 vehicles were tested from a representative sample of vehicle age groupings and sub-types Goal was to calculate updated emission factors and deterioration rates over prescribed driving conditions to replace old default values

14. Vehicle Emissions Testing

15. The refinement of emission factors and deterioration rates for the Australian fleet allowed a reduction in reported inventory emissions New data subject to assessment by a UNFCCC expert review team Revised Emission Factor – CH 4

16. Deterioration Rates Emissions of CH 4 gases increase due to gradual wearing of components The deterioration rate is incorporated into the model and expressed as emissions per kilometer per vehicle kilometer travelled

17. Other Transport Sectors Tier 2 for CO 2 Non-CO 2 Motorcycles –Tier 1 default EFs for non CO 2 Railways –Tier 2 methods, EFs estimated using locomotive engine type EFs from the USEPA Navigation –Non-CO 2 EFs are taken from the Lloyds Register Civil Aviation –Emissions calculated as a function of the landing/take-off cycles (LTOs) and cruise emissions.

18. Source Specific QA/QC Main sources of data are –Australian Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) –Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Both organisations have systematic quality assurance programmes in place Independent published data sources provide validation of ABS and BREE data in this sector

19. QA/QC - Country Comparisons Implied emission factors for key variables should not be significantly different to those of other UNFCCC reporting parties Example: Implied emission factor for methane from the combustion of gasoline

20. Summary Large amounts of activity data and emission factors are required to support tier 3 methods Tier 3 estimates better reflect Australian driving conditions and the vehicle fleet Emission estimates include measures to improve vehicle emission rates