1. Changing Housing Density? Insights from the 2006 Census and Implications for Future Sustainability Professor Andrew Beer School of Geography, Population and Environmental Management Flinders University

2. SOUTHERN RESEARCH CENTRE Introduction Is density changing in Australian cities? Can we see new patterns of urban development? Social impacts Implications for environmental and economic sustainability Conclusion

3. SOUTHERN RESEARCH CENTRE Density and Drivers of the Housing Market Recent projections show that the housing stock is growing and will continue to grow. Projections indicate that by 2011 there will be demand for an additional 1.1 million dwellings (McDonald 2003) and that Australian households will continue to decline in size as parents occupy their existing dwellings and young people seek new housing. At the 1996 Census there were 7,195,216 households within the Australian housing stock, by 2001 it had risen to 7,810,345 and by 2006 it stood at 8,446,726. Importantly, since the 1990s housing demand has been driven by the growth in households rather than the growth in population (McDonald 2004). raising children.

4. SOUTHERN RESEARCH CENTRE Density and Drivers of the Housing Market It is also critical to acknowledge that several commentators have argued that new housing production has not kept pace with demand (Eslake 2008; BIS Shrapnel 2008) and that this lag has been evident over several years. It is therefore reasonable to expect trends in dwelling occupancy that reflect a degree of tension within the market. The ageing of the population and the formation of lone person households are important components in the growth of households. It is expected that much of the demand for new housing will find expression in the outer metropolitan regions (McDonald 2003) even though a significant proportion of new housing in major cities such as Sydney is provided on infill or ‘brownfield’ sites (Haddad 2008).

5. SOUTHERN RESEARCH CENTRE Density and Drivers of the Housing Market Overwhelmingly Australians live in separate houses, most of which have three or more bedrooms. However, the proportion of occupied dwellings in Australia that are separate houses has been falling slowly but steadily over recent years. At Census 2006, 74.8 per cent of occupied private dwellings in Australia were separate houses (5,685,387 of 7,596,183 private occupied dwellings), compared with 75.3 per cent in 2001 and 78.0 per cent in 1991. Allied with this decline in the percentage of dwellings that are separate houses has been an increase in the number and proportion of all private occupied dwellings that are higher density – increasing from 19.5 per cent of all private occupied dwellings in 1991, to 22.2 per cent in 2001 and most recently to 23.4 per cent in 2006.

6. SOUTHERN RESEARCH CENTRE Number of Australian Households Resident in Flats and Semi Detached Dwellings, 1996-2006

7. SOUTHERN RESEARCH CENTRE Household Type Where Children are Identified as Dependents Under 24 Years, 1996, 2001 and 2006, Australia

8. SOUTHERN RESEARCH CENTRE Household Type Where Children are Identified as Dependents Under 15 Years, 1996, 2001 and 2006, Australia

9. SOUTHERN RESEARCH CENTRE Number of Households by Dwelling Type, 1996, 2001 and 2006

10. SOUTHERN RESEARCH CENTRE Percentage of Households by Dwelling Type, Family Households, 1996, 2001 and 2006

11. SOUTHERN RESEARCH CENTRE Percentage of Households by Dwelling Type, Lone Person Households, 1996, 2001 and 2006

12. SOUTHERN RESEARCH CENTRE Top 20 SLAs to Record an Increase in Households Resident in Buildings Four or More Storeys High, 1996 to 2006

13. SOUTHERN RESEARCH CENTRE Towards Denser Housing? Overall, the ‘densification’ of the Australian housing stock is taking place slowly, if at all But nos of families living in 4+ storeys doubled over the decade to 2006 Concentrated in a few locations Tied very much to near inner locations where employment prospects are best and incomes highest Affordable, low cost, higher density housing is absent

14. SOUTHERN RESEARCH CENTRE Social Sustainability Housing affordability a crisis 34% per cent of female sole parents who are tenants in housing stress. 26% of all low income tenants are in housing stress Significant rise in the number of households in the top 60% of income distribution paying 30% or more for housing The number of households in the upper 60 per cent of the income distribution spending 30 per cent or more of their income for accommodation virtually doubled between 2001 and 2006, while rising from 13.9 per cent of households in 2001 to 21.6 per cent in 2006.

15. SOUTHERN RESEARCH CENTRE Social Sustainability, Economic Sustainabilty and Ecological Sustainability Growth in denser housing forms limited, and driven largely by economic concerns It is not providing a social dividend re affordability It is probably providing an ecological dividend and potentially an environmental dividend The nature of families has changed as families – as a cohort have aged. Households with dependent age children much a much smaller percentage than public perceptions We should ask questions as to the appropriateness of planning processes – given that the number of households with children living in higher density has doubled over the decade