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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Fundamental Analysis of Crop Markets Minnesota Master Marketer Program Mankato, Minnesota Feb. 10, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Corn Supply and Use 20122013201420152015 Δ Area Planted(mil. acres)97.395.490.688.00 Yield(bu./acre)123.1158.1171.0168.40 Production(mil. bu.)10,75513,82914,21613,6010 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)9898211,2321,7310 Imports(mil. bu.)16036325010 Total Supply(mil. bu.)11,90414,68615,47915,38210 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)4,3155,0405,3155,3000 Ethanol(mil. bu.)4,6415,1245,2095,22525 Food, Seed, & Other(mil. bu.)1,3971,3691,3591,3700 Exports(mil. bu.)7301,9201,8641,650-50 Total Use(mil. bu.)11,08313,45413,74813,545-25 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)8211,2321,7311,83735 Season-Average Price($/bu.)6.894.463.703.600 Source: USDA-WAOB
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use 20122013201420152015 Δ Area Planted(mil. acres)77.276.883.382.70 Yield(bu./acre)40.044.047.548.00 Production(mil. bu.)3,0423,3583,9273,9300 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)169141921910 Imports(mil. bu.)417233300 Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,2523,5704,0524,1510 Crush(mil. bu.)1,6891,7341,8731,880-10 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.)1051071451310 Exports(mil. bu.)1,3171,6381,8431,6900 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,1113,4783,8613,701-10 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)1419219145010 Season-Average Price($/bu.)14.4013.0010.108.800 Source: USDA-WAOB
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 20122013201420152015 Δ Area Planted(mil. acres)55.356.256.854.60 Yield(bu./acre)46.247.143.743.60 Production(mil. bu.)2,2522,1352,0262,0520 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)7437185907520 Imports(mil. bu.)1231731491200 Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,1183,0262,7662,9240 Food(mil. bu.)9459559589670 Seed(mil. bu.)737779660 Feed & Residual(mil. bu.)3702281221500 Exports(mil. bu.)1,0121,176854775-25 Total Use(mil. bu.)2,4002,4362,0141,958-25 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)71859075296625 Season-Average Price($/bu.)7.776.875.995.000 Source: USDA-WAOB
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Yield Estimate Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Winter Wheat Acreage Source: USDA-NASS Top: 2016 Estimated Acres Bottom: Change from last year Units: 1,000 acres
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Hog Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 poundsPig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pigSoybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Cattle Crush Margin Source: ISU Extension The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 poundsFeeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Wheat Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Wheat Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Wheat Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Grind for Ethanol
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Stocks Source: EIA
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ethanol Exports Source: EIA
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Biodiesel Production Source: EIA
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Renewable Fuels Standard
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics U.S. DDG Supply and Use 20112012201320142015 Production(mil. metric tons)36.333.536.537.136.8 Imports(mil. metric tons)0.4 0.50.4 Total Supply(mil. metric tons)36.733.937.037.537.2 Domestic(mil. metric tons)29.125.725.025.925.5 Exports(mil. metric tons)7.68.212.011.511.7 Total Use(mil. metric tons)36.733.937.037.437.2 Price($ per ton)217256205158 Source: USDA-ERS
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics DDG Exports Source: USDA
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics DDG Exports to China Source: USDA
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Corn Futures Source: CME Group, 2/9/2016 3.55 3.62 3.70
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Soybean Futures Source: CME Group, 2/9/2016 8.63 8.34 8.38
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Current Wheat Futures Source: CME Group, 2/9/2016 4.83 4.48 5.02
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2015/16 Crop Margins
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 2016/17 Crop Margins
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crop Prices for the Next Decade Source: USDA-OCE
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Arable Land
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Area Source: USDA-FAS-PSD
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Area Source: USDA-FAS-PSD
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Wheat Area Source: USDA-FAS-PSD
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Pork Production Source: USDA-FAS-PSD
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Beef Production Source: USDA-FAS-PSD
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Poultry Production Source: USDA-FAS-PSD
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Top 10 populations Source: CIA World Factbook
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Population growth 2016 to 2050 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Economic growth rates Source: CIA World Factbook
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Beef consumption growth Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/17/16
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Pork consumption growth Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/17/16
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Chicken consumption growth Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/17/16
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn consumption Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/17/16
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean meal consumption Source: USDA Foreign Agriculture Service PSD Online 1/17/16
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Planting Progress Source: USDA-NASS
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Emergence Source: USDA-NASS
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Corn Conditions Source: USDA-NASS
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Soybean Conditions Source: USDA-NASS
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Early Corn Yield Estimate
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Early Soy Yield Estimate
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Source: NOAA-CPC 3-Month Temperature Outlook
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Source: NOAA-CPC 3-Month Precipitation Outlook
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Source: NOAA-CPC ENSO Cycle
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics World Corn Markets Source: USDA
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Population vs. arable land share of global population arable land China19% 5% India17%10% US 4%13%
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Arable Land
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Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/
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