1. CLIMATE CHANGE and challenges to sustainable human development in Tajikistan Nailya Mustaeva UNDP Tajikistan CEU Summer School July 2-13, 2012, Budapest, Hungary

2. Fact sheet about Tajikistan Mountains occupy 93%Mountains occupy 93% of the country’s terrain; 70% living in rural areasTotal population of Tajikistan is more than 7 mln., with approx. 70% living in rural areas 53.5% of the population live beyond the poverty line most vulnerable lack of adaptation capacityOne of the most vulnerable country in the region and CIS with the lack of adaptation capacity. 0.01 C annuallyIncrease of air temperature by 0.01 C annually 500 natural disasters USD 600 millionEvery year: 500 natural disasters causing – USD 600 million of damage

3. Poverty and vulnerability Vulnerability to climate change: exposure to climate shocks and adaptive capacity Specific in most districts but common in nature: – Food insecurity, susceptibility to natural disasters, reliance on natural resources and agriculture – Low education level, no resources

5. Food security Decline of agricultural sector (outdated infrastructure, lack of fertilizers, BUT climate-induced impacts, like droughts and floods adds to the problem); 40% of production loss in 2008 (winter crisis and drought); Dependence on imported crops (fruits, vegetables): 50-60%

6. Health and education The growing risk of malaria and heat waves; Infectious diseases (esp. water-borne ones, access to clean water and sanitation); Natural disasters and migration: limited access for children to go to schools

7. Vulnerable groups Old people, women, children, single mothers, people with disabilities Migration adds to the vulnerability and gender inequality (e.g. with women’s burden)

8. Recommendations Policy level: mainstreaming of CC adaptation in strategic documents (NDS, PRS, health and education programmes, etc.); Vulnerable groups: go beyond the poor people only and turn into other ones (women, children, old people, etc. i.e. vulnerable from cc impacts perspective); Generally perceived adaptation measures will not be suitable (e.g. flexible tariffs for single mothers, incentives for women-led households); Reducing the risk of natural disasters: a complex of measures (infrastructure, policy, ecosystem-based measures, CB).

9. As the Human Development Report (UNDP 2008): Climate in a Changing World states, “…we must see the fight against poverty and the fight against the effects of climate change as interrelated efforts. They must reinforce each other and success must be achieved on both fronts jointly”.

10. Thank you!