1. Young people in the ex- Yugoslav countries: frozen transitions and values Metka Kuhar, University of Ljubljana (prepared in collaboration with Herwig Reiter, University of Bremen)‏ Presentation for the research seminar Young People and Social Change after the Fall of the Berlin Wall, 20th November 2009, Budapest

2. Work in progress raising additional questions and leaving blank spots for follow-up research

3. Introduction Topic: youth life stage transition to adulthood and youth’s value orientations in the ex-Yugoslav countries in a comparative perspective How do transitions develop in the ex-Yu since 1989/1990 (in comparison to the period before transition) in terms of structural-economic and ideational dimensions? Ex-Yugoslavia: impact of wars, multi-ethnicity, multi-religiosity; distinctive self-management type of socialist regime Reflection of the concepts/theories: individualisation, Second Demographic Transition; modernisation Data sources: statistics, public opinion surveys, 1986 all-Yugoslav youth survey (focus: transition to family-parenthood)‏

4. Theoretical overview of changes in youth transition processes Life courses and transitions more and more depart from traditional normative expectations From persistent order to yoyoization (Walther) of transitions (prolongation, reversibility, non-linearity, non- connectedness of individual transitions) Determinants: global trends of expansion/prolongation of education, normalisation of youth underemployment and over-qualification (esp. from the seventies on), housing shortage, and more contingent partnerships Arguments that transitions have never been standardized CEE: forced destandardisation through institutional (economic) collapse (Kogan, Kovacheva, Roberts, Reiter et al.)‏

5. The main argument/research question turbulent and intense socio-economic changes + traditionalist normative- value patterns in (the majority of) ex-Yugoslav republics have literally frozen existing transition patterns prolongation of youth life stage transition without destandardisation?

6. Structural-economic factors Indicators of general societal transformation and economic crisis, indicators of life conditions and options: Structure of economy GDP GINI-coefficient Poverty (General population) employment/unemployment rate Housing Emigration rates  structural constraints: on the individual level seen in the lack of resources (because of unemployment, lack of independent housing etc.) = objective obstacles to personal and family realization  heterogeneity of the former Yugoslav countries already in the mid 1990s

7. Ideational indicators Reflect nation specific ways of socio-economic development, the entire cultural heritage, specific country characteristics and historic roots Interaction between the driving forces of modernization and the persisting influence of tradition (Inglehart)‏ Cultural contraints… influence relation towards structural conditions 2 dimensions of cultural variation according to Inglehart and Baker, 2000 General and ‘family’ values Traditionalist/conservative ideologies/discourses – value orientations on the rise (national homogenisation, desecularisation…)‏

8. Inglehart in Baker, 2000 WVS/EVS 1999/2000 Two dimensions of cultural variation: traditional/secular-rational and survival /self-expression values

9. Transition from education to employment

10. Upper secondary education enrolment (gross ratios, per cent of population aged 15-18) (UNICEF 2007)‏

11. Higher education enrolment (gross ratios, per cent of population aged 19-23/24) (UNICEF 2007)‏

12. Inactivity rate among 15-24-olders (ILO 2008)‏

13. Youth labour force participation rate (ILO 2008)‏

14. Youth unemployment rates, 15-24-olders (ILO 2008)‏

15. Residential emancipation

16. % of young people living with their parents (answers of 18-34-olders according to the age group)‏ EVS/WVS 1999

17. Family formation

18. Mean age of women at first marriage (years) (CoE 2005, UNICEF 2008)‏

19. Mean age of mothers at first birth, 1960-2006 (CoE 2005, UNICEF 2008)‏

20. Age specific birth rates, 1989-2006 (live births per 1,000 women) (UNICEF 2008)‏

21. Crude marriage rate (per 1000 population) (CoE 2005)

22. Proportion of non-marital births (as per cent of total live births) (CoE 2005, UNICEF 2008)‏

23. Marital status, 18-34-olders WVS/EVS 1999/2000 CROMACSERMTNRSFBiHSLO Married40,154,639,137,239,137,628,0 Cohabitation No data1,73,03,50,80,4 No data Single/Unmarried58,040,154,358,057,959,271,1 Divorced1,93,6 1,42,32,90,87

24. Total fertility rate, since 1950 (UN 2009)‏

25. Discussion: Towards a new pattern of youth transitions in SEE Where is youth agency: remaining home, idleness, exit/retreat to privacy vs. emigration to other countries, emigration from rural to urban areas Reflection needed: economic and cultural determinism; traditional vs. modern dichotomy Modernization in crisis Alternative concept of transition for the analysis of youth transitions in the Balkan region needed?