1. QUIZ Identify the following terms based on the definitions provided: 1. What the public thinks about a particular set of issues at a particular time 2. Unscientific surveys to gauge public opinion on a variety of issues and policies. 3. A method of poll selection that gives each person in a group the same chance of being selected 4. Polls conducted at selected polling places on Election Day ____________________________ 5. This man is considered the founder of modern-day polling (last name only).

2. PUBLIC OPINION POLLS Steps in Polling Process ▫Determine issue ▫Determine content of poll and phrasing of questions ▫Select the sample ▫Contact the respondents

3. Content and Phrasing of Questions Be as neutral as possible. Do you approve or disapprove of the job President Obama is doing as president? Do you think President Obama is doing a decent job as president?

4. Selecting the Sample Random Sampling ▫Poll selection that gives each person in a group the same chance of being selected. Sampling Error/Margin of Error ▫A measure of the accuracy of the poll. ▫Typically 3% if 1,500 are sampled.

5. Types of Election Polls Straw Polls ▫Unscientific surveys to gauge public opinion on a variety of issues and policies. Tracking Polls ▫Continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart daily level of support. Exit Polls ▫Conducted on Election Day. Predict outcome of races.

6. Shortcomings of Polls How random was the sample? – Polls by email – Polls by phone between 5-9PM. – Poll to determine the approval rating of Governor O’Malley cannot be exclusively conducted in Baltimore City. Were the questions value neutral? Number of response options. – Only two options?

7. Shortcomings Lack of public information ▫Do you approve or disapprove of the stimulus package?  How many people read the whole package? ▫Do you approve or disapprove of our current trade policy with Mexico? Hard to measure intensity. ▫Is the respondent passionate, or just answering the question?

8. Random Sampling Polls http://science360.gov/obj/video/dc8e0737- ceac-4582-bee9-5f195951a01a/science-behind- news-opinion-polls-random-samplinghttp://science360.gov/obj/video/dc8e0737- ceac-4582-bee9-5f195951a01a/science-behind- news-opinion-polls-random-sampling

9. Women and votes http://www.nytimes.com/video/2012/10/24/us /politics/100000001856152/the-womens- vote.htmlhttp://www.nytimes.com/video/2012/10/24/us /politics/100000001856152/the-womens- vote.html