1. Economic Dynamics of Freight & Modes

2. The Trucking Industry

3. Sources: ATA & U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2024 & ATA Truck Rail Interstate Highway JIT/Supply Chain Billions of Tons Deregulation Historical Tonnage by Mode

4. Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2024 2012Truck Tonnage Only Distribution of Tonnage by Mode: 2012

5. Source: ATA Classes 7 & 8 Tractors Only 4.5 million Trucks Classes 6-8 1.4 million Classes 7 & 8 Tractors Distribution of Trucks: 2012

6. The US Freight Economy We expected the economy to slow in Q1, but the weather was a significant drag. The housing recovery and auto production have been helping freight volumes. The US energy production boom is boosting truck tonnage. More optimistic on manufacturing activity this year, but it wasn’t a big help in 2013. Consumer spending has been choppy, but will accelerate in 2014. Most headwinds (x weather) that remain are primarily from DC.

7. Real GDP Forecast Source: ATA

8. What Drives Truck Freight Volumes?

9. Annual Housing Starts (Millions of Units) Sources: Census Bureau and ATA 2014 will be the highest level since 2007.

10. Real Consumer Spending (Annual Percent Change) Sources: BEA and ATA

11. Factory Output (Annual Percent Change) Sources: Federal Reserve and ATA

12. US Crude Oil Production (Millions of Barrels per Day) Source: EIA 67% increase

13. US Exports Diesel vs Gasoline Thousand of Barrels per Day Source: EIA

14. Trucking Trends: Demand

15. Changes in For-Hire Truck Freight Volumes Sources: ATA’s Monthly Truck Tonnage Report & Trucking Activity Report

16. Changes in TL Loads by Sector (Seasonally Adjusted) Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report Spot market did well in Q1 as shippers tried to get freight moved.

17. Total Truckload Loads & Miles Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report

18. Dry Van Average Length-Of-Haul is Down Source: ATA 772 miles

19. Miles Per Truck Per Month are Down too Source: ATA (Includes all types of TL carriers)

20. Trucking Trends: Capacity

21. Source: ATA based on Trucking Activity Report 2005 = 100 Through February 2014 TL Loads Index TL Tractor Count Index Oversupply TL Supply vs Demand

22. Costs & Drivers

23. Source: US Department of Energy 201320142015 WTI $/Barrel$97.91$95.33$89.79 Diesel Prices

24. The Class 8 Fleet Has Aged, but the Industry Is Struggling to Reduce It (Average Age in Years) Source: ACT Research

25. Motor Carriers Are Struggling to Replace Their Trucks New Diesel Tractor (Sleeper) Price Estimate (Annual Averages) Source: ACT Research

26. Source: ATA 2013 LTL: 11% TL Truck Driver Turnover Rates

27. Source: ATA Benchmarking Guide for Driver Recruitment & Retention Average Number of New Drivers Needed Per Year Over the Next 10 Years: 96,178

28. Intermodal Market

29. Growth in Tonnage Total Percent Increase from 2012 to 2024 Waterborne Rail Carload Trucking Rail Intermodal Air Pipeline Source: U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2024

30. Billions of Tons Note: Maximum competitive freight is less than 1 billion tons in a total market (truck and rail only) of 11.4 billion tons, or less than 10%. Competitive freight includes all freight traveling at least 500 miles, but excludes coal tonnage. There is a significant amount of time definite freight in this category that really isn’t competitive, but it is included. So in reality, the competitive market is even smaller than suggested here. Trucks and Trains Compete on a Very Limited Basis Sources: Commodity Flow Survey (US Census Bureau) and ATA 2012 Competitive Freight Among Truck and Rail Tonnage

31. Trucking Rail Intermodal Sources: ATA & U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2024 Tonnage Growth 2012 to 2024 & Market Share in 2024 (Baseline Forecast)

32. Trucking Rail Intermodal Sources: ATA & U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2024 Instead of growing 67.8% from 2012 to 2024, we doubled Intermodal’s growth rate all at the expense of trucking – the impact is very small. Tonnage Growth 2012 to 2024 & Market Share in 2024 (Alternative Forecast #1)

33. Trucking Rail Intermodal Sources: ATA & U.S. Freight Transportation Forecast to 2024 Instead of growing 67.8% from 2012 to 2024, we tripled Intermodal’s growth rate all at the expense of trucking – the impact is very small. Tonnage Growth 2012 to 2024 & Market Share in 2024 (Alternative Forecast #2)

34. Thank you! bwanamaker@trucking.org 703 838-1997