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Eurostat Item 10 Special session dedicated to big data sources with potential for tourism statistics The possible future impact of big data on tourism statistics and their mutual relation within a system of tourism statistics DG EUROSTAT – Christophe Demunter, tourism statistics & TF Big Data Working Group on Tourism Statistics Luxembourg, 21 and 22 September 2015
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Eurostat Outline 1.Jigsaw falling into place ? 2.Lifecycle for the coming years ? 3.Sketch of big data in tourism statistics ? 4.Gaps & challenges !
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Eurostat Step 1 – Finding the pieces of the puzzle
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Eurostat Step 2 – Starting with the frame
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Eurostat Step 3 – Solving the rest of the puzzle Oops… missing pieces !
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Eurostat Step 3b,c,…z – Many brain cracking efforts later The full picture!
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Eurostat Lifecycle for the coming years ? TOURISM STATISTICS Mobile phone data Payment cards data HOUSEHOLD & BUSINESS SURVEYS Other big data SHORT TERM → 'Traditional' surveys as main input for tourism statistics → Big data sources slowly becoming auxiliary information SHORT TERM → 'Traditional' surveys as main input for tourism statistics → Big data sources slowly becoming auxiliary information
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Eurostat Lifecycle for the coming years ? (2) TOURISM STATISTICS Mobile phone data Payment cards data HOUSEHOLD & BUSINESS SURVEYS Other big data MID TERM → Weight of surveys decreases in favour of big data ? → Surveys no longer 'main filter' but 'one of the sources' ? MID TERM → Weight of surveys decreases in favour of big data ? → Surveys no longer 'main filter' but 'one of the sources' ?
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Eurostat Lifecycle for the coming years ? (3) TOURISM STATISTICS Mobile phone data Payment cards data HOUSEHOLD & BUSINES S SURVEYS Other big data Web (prices) Web (prices) Bookings (nowcast /forecast) Bookings (nowcast /forecast) NEW LONGER TERM → 'Replacement of surveys continues (smaller samples) ? → Enhanced tourism statistics via embedding of newer sources ? LONGER TERM → 'Replacement of surveys continues (smaller samples) ? → Enhanced tourism statistics via embedding of newer sources ?
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Eurostat Putting the building blocks together 1.Data on flows Mobile phone data as the most obvious source? → Call Detail Records enhanced with other location info to improve coverage and completeness → Improved geographical and temporal detail (mid-week, long weekends, etc.) → Pinpointing location data to exact location (geo-matching with known location of accommodation establishments?) Auxiliary information from other sources → Improving completeness via reservation data (the more remote the destination, the lower the use of mobile phones?), credit card use, traffic counts, smart meters etc.
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Eurostat Putting the building blocks together (2) 2.Expenditure Payment cards data as the most obvious source ? → P.O.S. transactions (derive product via merchant code, e.g. accommodation, retail, transport) → Quid transactions before trip (purchase of plane tickets) ? → ATM withdrawals to estimate cash payments at the destination (bias for shorter trips? bias for intra-eurozone?) → Clear filtering of non-tourist related transactions with foreign entities will be essential (e-commerce) Auxiliary information from other sources → Breakdown of expenditure types (retail cashier data) → Survey, also for other characteristics but smaller scale quality trade-off?
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Eurostat Putting the building blocks together (3) ?? How to combine 1 & 2 ?? (unanswered…) 3.Other tourism info Previously unavailable statistics → Using webscraping to estimate prices (REVPAR, …) → Using internet activity to estimate visitors at destination level (e.g. Wikistats project) Nowcasting (flash estimates) and forecasting → Using search engines, booking & reservation info, social media scraping 4. Your views & feedback please !
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Eurostat Gaps & challenges Completeness of the data E.g socio-demographic info customer contract info? profiling? E.g purpose of the trip profiling experiments ongoing Other info such as 'composition of travel party' → Collected via a small follow-up survey how to link to other data? → Or… drop re-assessing user needs & priorities balancing completeness with higher timeliness or higher temporal/geographical granularity
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Eurostat Gaps & challenges (2) Matching different sources Data-linking at micro-level: not likely to be feasible Data-linking at macro-level: are we comparing apples & oranges? Integrating different (big data) sources: gaps vs. risk of overlap and double counting? Calendar: all sources simultaneously available to produce the desired statistical output ? or release determined by the weakest link in the production chain/system?
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Eurostat Gaps & challenges (3) Substitution bias Is the increase/decrease of the value of a given indicator driven by a real increase/decrease of what is measured or by substitution effects affecting the 'measurement tool'? → E.g. increase in expenditure (measured using credit cards) real increase or only a more widespread use of cards by tourists? → E.g. decrease in number of tourists (measured using mobile positioning data) real decrease or only a drop in use of mobile phones while abroad (in favour of newer/cheaper technologies or devices) ? … an important new quality feature to assess/monitor!
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Eurostat Gaps & challenges (4) Transformation & skills Trust of users ? Transition period with parallel systems (impact on cost?) Shift in IT infrastructure and data treatment/processing capacity (see CBS traffic intensities statistics) Shift from experts in survey methodology to bricklayers & purifiers of big data … from data coLLectors to data coNNectors !
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Eurostat Thank you for your attention !
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