1. Long run determinants of exchange rate regimes: a simple sensitivity analysis Grace Juhn and Paolo Mauro Ahmad Bash Tables (5C, 6A, 6B)

2. Exchange rate regime classifications Original IMF 1990 IMF: based on IMF’s staff review LYS classification: based on observed volatility of exchange rate and international reserves (cluster analysis) pegs inter medi ate floa t 2000 1990 revise d 1990 1999 floats pegs interme diate Hard pegs float

3. Table 5C: Probit original 1990 IMF classification Baseline variables have been chosen based on : 1- they have been used by many previous studies 2- they have solid theoretical support 3- They are available for large number of countries Baseline variables are included in all regressions ( 11 regressions) When the authors use exchange rate regime in two groups, they run Probit Model 1- hard versus all other 2- floats versus all others 3- pure versus all others

4. Table 5C: Probit original 1990 IMF classification Size: significant in several specifications: large country chooses float or pure float Trade openness: negatively associated with floats and pure floats. In other words, more openness -> fixed regime Share of trade with country’s main trading partner: insignificant Additional variables: are added one at a time as the 4 th regressor in the other regressions. Inflation: high inflation: positively and significantly associated with floats while negatively and significantly associated with pegs\hard pegs

5. Z-value is reported only for the additional variables and highlights whether it is significant

6. Table 6A:Multinominal Logit: IMF classification Table 6B: Multinomial Logit: LYS classification When the authors use exchange rate regime in three groups, they run Multinomial Logit: 1- hard pegs, floats, and all others 2- hard pegs, pure floats, and all others No robust regularities in the data, despite signs that: larger economies will have floating rather than intermediate regime, and less likely to have hard pegs than intermediate regimes Neither de facto capital openness nor capital controls are robust predictive of whether countries tend to have floats/ pure floats or hard pegs, rather than intermediate regime. This suggests that newly popular theories of the determinants of exchange rate regimes do not have much predictive power when applied to the data using available indicators.

9. Thank you